WOCN31 CWHX 161200 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...OPHELIA HEADING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY..TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN OF NOVA SCOTIA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 N AND LONGITUDE 74.4 W... ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES OR 115 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS... 7 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 16 9.00 AM 35.7N 74.4W 994 55 102 SEP 16 9.00 PM 37.5N 72.6W 994 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 AM 39.7N 70.2W 994 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 PM 42.9N 66.2W 993 55 102 SEP 18 9.00 AM 45.1N 61.7W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 46.9N 56.4W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 49.1N 50.8W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 PM 51.8N 45.7W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WIND WILL SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER..RADAR FROM NORTH CAROLINA INDICATES THAT THE CORE REMAINS INTACT AND AN EYE MAY BE TRYING TO REDEVELOP. THE STORM REMAINS OVER 27 DEGREE WATERS. B. PROGNOSTIC A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. WE ARE FORECASTING IT TO TRACK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTPUT FROM OUR EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR RECENT FORECAST..SO THIS HELPS ENSURE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN OUR PREDICTIONS. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR INTENSITY IS 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS FROM THE GFDL INDICATES COMMENCEMENT OF ET AROUND 17/12 UTC (SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD) AND COMPLETION AROUND 18/18 UTC (NEAR CAPE BRETON). C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE GFS SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 75 TO 100 MM RANGE (3 TO 4 INCHES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 25 TO 40 MM (1 TO 1.5 INCHES) OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PEI. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE STORM NEARS..SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS. THE WIND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN. WITH THE PREDICTED TRACK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA..EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO 90 KM/H ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN UPCOMING BULLETINS TODAY. HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 16/12Z 120 120 100 65 60 60 55 40 0 0 0 0 17/00Z 120 120 100 80 60 60 50 45 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 125 130 105 80 60 65 50 40 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 105 155 115 55 45 70 45 15 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 60 175 130 30 25 70 40 0 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 80 190 140 40 30 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 160 200 155 50 40 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 20/00Z 160 210 170 50 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/MCILDOON