WOCN31 CWHX 161800 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT OPHELIA FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 N AND LONGITUDE 73.5 W... ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OR 220 KM SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 16 3.00 PM 36.6N 73.5W 994 55 102 SEP 17 3.00 AM 38.4N 71.8W 994 55 102 SEP 17 3.00 PM 41.5N 68.6W 994 55 102 SEP 18 3.00 AM 44.4N 63.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 3.00 PM 46.5N 59.1W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 AM 48.0N 53.6W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 PM 49.7N 48.9W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 3.00 AM 51.7N 42.3W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 3.00 PM 53.1N 36.5W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 3.00 AM 54.5N 29.1W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 3.00 PM 54.9N 23.6W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WIND WILL SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN SHORE AND CAPE BRETON SUNDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS. FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY IT CAN BE SEEN THAT IT HAS UNDERGONE WEAK SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN IT. RESEARCH FLIGHT AND RADAR INDICATE THAT IT MAY ALSO BE TILTED AND SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF SOME WEAKENING. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE THOUGHT BEHIND THE TRACK...HOWEVER WE ARE MOVING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST.. WHICH WILL BRING OPHELIA ACROSS THE COAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE. UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARLY INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER WINDS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE REASON TO MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 26 DEG WATER AND ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE TRACK IT WILL NOT REACH WATERS BELOW 20 C UNTIL AFTER 1200Z ON SATURDAY. SO ANY WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR INTENSITY IS 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THIS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT NHC TRACK...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD OVER THE MODELS WITH ONE OR 2 SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING AND MOST KEEPING THE STRENGTH MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED. OPHELIA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES TOWARDS CAPE BRETON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A MAJOR MID LATITIUDE STORM IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER SHORT WAVE BECOMES INVOLVED. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE GFS SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 75 TO 100 MM RANGE (3 TO 4 INCHES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 30 TO 60 MM (1 TO 2.0 INCHES) OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PEI. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE STORM NEARS..SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS. THE WIND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN. WITH THE PREDICTED TRACK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA..EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO 90 KM/H ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED TO TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING HALIFAX AND AND TRURO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TRACK WIND WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS. FURTHER WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS SUNDAYS WEATHER COME INTO THE REGULAR FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NEAR HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE BRETON THE HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF STORM SURGE WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE RIGHT IF THE TRACK. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 16/18Z 120 120 100 70 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0 17/06Z 120 125 100 80 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 115 140 110 65 50 65 45 25 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 80 165 120 40 35 70 40 5 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 70 180 135 35 25 65 35 0 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 120 195 145 45 35 55 25 0 0 0 0 0 19/18Z 160 205 160 50 40 45 20 0 0 0 0 0 20/06Z 160 215 180 50 40 35 20 0 0 0 0 0 20/18Z 160 225 200 50 40 25 20 0 0 0 0 0 21/06Z 160 235 220 50 40 15 20 0 0 0 0 0 21/18Z 160 245 240 50 40 5 20 0 0 0 0 0 END MCILDOON