WOCN31 CWHX 170000 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT OPHELIA FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 N AND LONGITUDE 72.5 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 260 KM EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 993 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 16 9.00 PM 37.7N 72.5W 993 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 AM 40.0N 70.0W 993 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 PM 43.4N 66.1W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.9N 60.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 49.0N 54.5W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 50.6N 47.3W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 PM 51.9N 38.4W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 9.00 AM 52.5N 31.4W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WIND WILL SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN SHORE AND CAPE BRETON SUNDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES LUNENBURG QUEENS SHELBURNE AND YARMOUTH. SEE BULLETIN FOR DETAILS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CONTINUED ELSEWHERE. SEE BULLETIN FOR DETAILS. WITH TRACK WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR MOST SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. FURTHER WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH THE SATURDAY MORNINGS FORECAST AS SUNDAYS WEATHER COME INTO THE REGULAR FORECAST PERIOD. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND THE LATEST RECONAISSANCE FLIGHT WOULD SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS LIKELY MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE CLOUD MASS THAN WAS THE CASE PREVIOUSLY AND IT IS EXHIBITING A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL AREA OF CONVECTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR RADAR TO GIVE A GOOD FIX ANY LONGER. RADAR IS ONLY PICKING UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 OR 26 DEG WATER AND ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE TRACK IT WILL NOT REACH WATERS BELOW 20 C UNTIL AFTER 1200Z ON SATURDAY. SO ANY WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR INTENSITY IS 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD OVER THE MODELS WITH ONE OR 2 SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING AND MOST KEEPING THE STRENGTH MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN LINE WITH NHC LATEST TRACK. THE TRACK IS CLOSELY RELATED TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON THE GFS. THE 500 MB FLOW OVER OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTH OF LATITUDE 40 SO THAT IT SHOULD BE MOVING AT CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS AS IS MOVES ALONG THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL BESOMEWHAT FASTER THE PREVIOUS TRACK. OPHELIA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES TOWARDS CAPE BRETON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A MAJOR MID LATITIUDE STORM IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER SHORT WAVE BECOMES INVOLVED. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE GFS SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 75 TO 100 MM RANGE (3 TO 4 INCHES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 30 TO 60 MM (1 TO 2.0 INCHES) OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PEI. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE STORM NEARS..SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS. THE WIND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN. WITH THE PREDICTED TRACK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.. WINDS COULD GUST TO 90 KM/H ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NEAR HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE BRETON THE HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF STORM SURGE WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE RIGHT IF THE TRACK. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 17/00Z 120 120 100 75 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 115 130 105 70 55 60 45 30 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 95 150 115 50 40 65 40 15 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 75 170 125 35 30 65 35 0 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 95 185 140 40 30 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 140 200 150 45 35 50 20 0 0 0 0 0 20/00Z 160 210 170 50 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 20/12Z 160 220 190 50 40 30 20 0 0 0 0 0 END MCILDOON/ROUSSEL