WOCN31 CWHX 170600 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY EVENING.. 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 N AND LONGITUDE 71.2 W... ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 285 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 996 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS... 35 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 17 3.00 AM 38.9N 71.2W 996 55 102 SEP 17 3.00 PM 41.7N 68.0W 995 50 93 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 3.00 AM 45.1N 63.3W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 3.00 PM 48.0N 57.5W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 AM 49.8N 50.9W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 PM 51.2N 42.8W 994 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 3.00 AM 52.2N 34.9W 995 44 81 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 3.00 PM 52.8N 27.9W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 3.00 AM 53.4N 20.9W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 3.00 PM 54.0N 13.9W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 22 3.00 AM 54.6N 6.9W 1001 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY OPHELIA WILL TRACK NORTHEASWARD ACROSS MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL TRACK ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. SOME THUNDERSHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.. SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND ILES DE LA MADELEINE. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND ILES DE LA MADELEINE AND MOST REGIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON. SEE BULLETINS FOR DETAILS. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF YARMOUTH SHELBURNE QUEENS AND LUNENBURG. SEE BULLETINS FOR DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA REGIONS.. THEN FOR CAPE BRETON. SEE BULLETINS FOR DETAILS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE MARINE AREAS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OR WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WITHIN THAT SECTION OF THE TRACK. SEE BULLETINS FOR DETAILS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA OF WATER WITH TEMPERATURE ABOUT 25 DEG CELCIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS PLUS ARE STILL PREVAILING AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 TO 19 KNOTS. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD SURROUNDS THE CENTRE. LIGHTNING IS DETECTED AND THE BOSTON RADAR SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RAIN ECHOES. B. PROGNOSTIC OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATER THIS MORNING WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 DEGREES. AFTERWARD IT WILL BE IN A TRANSITION STAGE UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER YARMOUTH COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA AFTER 9:00 PM THIS SATURDAY EVENING. NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK SINCE THE NEW MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND DISPLAYING A SIMILAR TRACK IN TIME AND SPACE. WHILE TRANSITIONING OPHELIA WILL MAINTAIN GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND CONTINUE THAT WAY UNTILL IT MOVES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER ALL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THIS STORM. HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 75 TO 100 MM (3 TO 4 INCHES) ARE PREDICTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK. SOUTH OF THE TRACK 30 TO 60 MM ( 1 TO 2 INCHES) ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSHOWERS. STRONG WINDS OF 60 KM/H WITH GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 KM/H SOUTH OF THE STORM. WHEN IT REACH THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM DUE TO SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE POST-TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY SURF ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NOVA SCOTIA NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NORTH OF HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE BRETON THE HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF STORM SURGE WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE RIGHT IF THE TRACK. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 17/06Z 115 125 100 70 55 60 45 35 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 105 140 110 60 45 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 100 160 120 80 60 65 35 40 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 100 175 130 100 60 60 80 70 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 115 190 145 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/18Z 150 205 160 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/06Z 160 215 180 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/18Z 160 225 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21/06Z 160 235 220 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21/18Z 160 245 240 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/06Z 160 255 260 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END ROUSSEL