WOCN31 CWHX 171200 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 N AND LONGITUDE 69.6 W... ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES OR 130 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 17 9.00 AM 40.1N 69.6W 997 55 102 SEP 17 9.00 PM 43.6N 65.8W 998 50 93 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.3N 60.8W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 48.5N 54.5W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 50.5N 46.8W 995 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 PM 51.7N 38.8W 995 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 9.00 AM 52.5N 31.4W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY OPHELIA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS CAPE BRETON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL TRACK ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK. SOME THUNDERSHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND ILES DE LA MADELEINE. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS OF NEWFOUDLAND. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND ILES DE LA MADELEINE CAPE BRETON AND MOST REGIONS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IS EFFECT FOR THE WRECKHOUSE AREA OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR BAY OF EXPLOITS AND GREEN BAY - WHITE BAY ON THE NEWFOUNDLAND EAST COAST. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF YARMOUTH SHELBURNE QUEENS AND LUNENBURG IN NOVA SCOTIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA REGIONS.. THEN FOR CAPE BRETON.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND ILES DE LA MADELEINE. SEE PUBLIC BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE WARNINGS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WITHIN THAT SECTION OF THE TRACK. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA OF WATER WITH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 22 TO 24 DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KNOTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 TO 20 KNOTS. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRE. LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO BE DETECTED. CANADIAN RADARS DISPLAY RAIN ECHOES OVER SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM AND RAIN HAS NOW REACHED HALIFAX. B. PROGNOSTIC OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATER THIS MORNING WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 DEGREES. AFTERWARDS IT WILL BE IN A TRANSITION STAGE UNTIL IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER YARMOUTH (OR SHELBURNE) COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA NEAR 9:00 PM THIS EVENING. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TRACKS VERY CLOSELY. AND THE NEW NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A CONSISTENT STORY FOR THIS STORM. OPHELIA WILL MAINTAIN GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS EVEN AFTER REACHING ITS POST-TROPICAL STAGE. SOME WEAKENING THEN REINTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING. STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOME MARINE AREAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER ALL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THIS STORM. HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 75 TO 100 MM (3 TO 4 INCHES) ARE PREDICTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK. SOUTH OF THE TRACK 30 TO 60 MM ( 1 TO 2 INCHES) ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSHOWERS. STRONG WINDS OF 60 KM/H WITH GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 KM/H SOUTH OF THE STORM. WHEN IT REACHES THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM DUE TO SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE POST-TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY SURF ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NOVA SCOTIA NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED COASTAL FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NORTH OF HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE BRETON THE HIGH TIDE MAY AGAIN PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF HIGH WATER LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING. OVER NEWFOUNDLAND THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 17/12Z 110 130 105 65 50 60 40 30 0 0 0 0 18/00Z 95 150 115 60 40 60 35 40 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 85 165 125 80 30 60 30 50 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 100 180 135 35 30 80 40 70 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 130 195 150 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/00Z 155 210 170 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/12Z 160 220 190 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END PARKES/ROUSSEL