WOCN31 CWHX 180600 POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AS IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.9 N AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OR 90 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF HALIFAX . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 999 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 41 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 18 3.00 AM 44.9N 62.4W 999 45 83 TRANSITIONING SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.3N 59.9W 999 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 3.00 PM 47.5N 56.8W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 48.6N 53.5W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 AM 49.8N 50.2W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 50.5N 47.1W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 PM 51.2N 43.9W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY OPHELIA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING PASSING INLAND EAST OF HALIFAX TO LIE NEAR SYDNEY BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA WILL CROSS NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS AROUND OPHELIA ARE IN A TIGHT CORE AROUND HER AND AS A RESULT LESS IMPACT IS NOW EXPECTED OVER PUBLIC AREAS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ENDED THOUGH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA. WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL BE ENDED FOR REMAINING AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, NEW BRUNSWICK AND ILES DE LA MADELEINE. WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ENDED IN WESTERN AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WILL BE ENDED SPREADING FROM THE WEST FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE MARITIMES AS OPHELIA MOVES EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE PUBLIC BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ARE FORECAST AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK ACROSS MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUT THE CENTRE OF THE STORM JUST SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX AT ISSUE TIME WITH BEAVER ISLAND RECORDING GUSTS TO 42 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND ASSOCIATED RAIN HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. B. PROGNOSTIC OPHELIA CONTINUES ITS TRANSITION TO THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETED BY MORNING... EVEN SO SOME WEAK TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS STILL CAN BE DISCERNED AS A SHRINKING TIGHT BAND OF STRONG WINDS STILL EXISTS AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE STORM AS IT TRACKS JUST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. THE 00Z NUMERICAL MODELS WERE IN GOOD BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM AND WE FOLLOW GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORM MAY CONTINUE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS FINAL TRANSITION TO ITS POST-TROPICAL PHASE. HOWEVER SOME REINTENSIFICAION POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK THEN INCREASE THEM TO 50 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THIS STORM HOWEVER DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 65 MM HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER SHELBURNE COUNTY AND PRECIPITATION IS ENDED OVER THE WEST AND TAPERING OFF QUICKLY ALONG A SHARP BACK EDGE AS OPHELIA MOVES EASTWARD. A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF OPHELIA AS SHE TRANSITIONS. THIS LIKELY WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS ACROSS CAPE BRETON AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND. STRONG WINDS OF 60 KM/H WITH GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 KM/H ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN RELATION TO THE TIGHT CORE CIRCULATION. OVER NEWFOUNDLAND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WAVE ACTION AND HEAVY POUNDING SURF SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA. D. MARINE WEATHER GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ARE FORECAST IN A TIGHT SWATH AROUND OPHELIA THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK ACROSS MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. THE WIND FIELD WILL LIKELY SPREAD OUT AS OPHELIA BECOMES FULLY TRANSITIONED INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 18/06Z 40 50 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18/12Z 40 50 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 40 50 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 60 70 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 70 80 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 100 100 70 70 60 70 50 40 0 0 0 0 19/18Z 110 110 90 90 60 70 50 40 0 0 0 0 END MARSHALL