WOCN31 CWHX 181200 POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WEAKENS FURTHER... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 N AND LONGITUDE 60.1 W... ABOUT 5 NAUTICAL MILES OR 15 KM NORTH NORTHWEST OF SYDNEY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 999 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.3N 60.1W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 3.00 PM 47.5N 56.9W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 18 9.00 PM 48.8N 53.4W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 3.00 AM 49.9N 50.1W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 19 9.00 AM 50.7N 46.8W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MORPH INTO A NON-TROPICAL ENTITY. THE STORM CENTRE MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND ACROSS CAPE BRETON. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CABOT STRAIT AND WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO NEWFOUNDLAND TO LIE NEAR BONAVISTA BY THIS EVENING. ALL WARNINGS OVER THE MARITIMES HAVE BEEN ENDED. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WAVE ACTION AND HEAVY POUNDING SURF THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA WILL MOVE BY MORE OR LESS AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. HOWEVER GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SWELL COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WHEN TIDES WILL BE HIGHER. SEE PUBLIC BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN MARITIME WATERS. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ARE FORECAST AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUT THE CENTRE OF THE STORM NORTH OF SYDNEY AT ISSUE TIME. B. PROGNOSTIC OPHELIA HAS COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE ... AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS CAN BE DISCERNED ANY LONGER. THE NUMERICAL MODELS WERE IN GOOD BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM. SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORM MAY CONTINUE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND. REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER VORTEX. WE MAINTAIN WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK THEN INCREASE THEM TO 50 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED THIS SYSTEM WELL NOW AND CAN BE USED TO CONTINUE TRACKING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM. C. PUBLIC WEATHER ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THIS STORM...HOWEVER DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. A BROAD FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF OPHELIA. THIS WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND. D. MARINE WEATHER GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ARE FORECAST IN A TIGHT SWATH AROUND OPHELIA THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK ACROSS MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. THE WIND FIELD WILL LIKELY SPREAD OUT AS OPHELIA BECOMES FULLY TRANSITIONED INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 18/12Z 30 30 15 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18/18Z 30 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/00Z 40 100 80 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 70 100 90 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19/12Z 90 120 90 60 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0 END MARSHALL/MCILDOON