WOCN31 CWHX 181800
POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

.... REMNANTS OF OPHELIA CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.5 N AND LONGITUDE 56.9 W... ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 55 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BURGEO . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998 MB.
OPHELIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 18  3.00 PM  47.5N  56.9W   998   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19  3.00 AM  49.2N  49.9W   997   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19  3.00 PM  50.9N  43.2W   995   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE TRANSFORMING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
MID LATITIUDE STORM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
HEAVY SURF MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHEASTERN COASTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEE PUBLIC BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL GRADULLY DIMINISH OVER EASTERN 
MARITIME WATERS.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS TRACK ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA ARE
INDICATING THAT IT IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING  INTO A SIGNIFICANT
MID LATITIUDE STORM.
THERE IS A LOT OF LIGHTNING SHOWING UP WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT FORECAST TIME. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A FRONTAL WAVE...
THE FRONT CAN BE ANALYSED ALL THE WAY TO WHAT REMAINS OF OPHELIA
AND IS A FURTHER INDICATION THAT IT HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A
REGULAR BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

B. PROGNOSTIC
OPHELIA HAS COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION TO THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE
THE ONLY ASPECT THAT COULD BE CONSIDERED TROPICAL IS THE MOISTURE 
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND HAS BROUGHT LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALLS
OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM AND INDICATING REINTENSIFICATION
AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. IT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
COAST NEAR BONAVISTA AROUND 9.00 PM THIS EVENING.
WE MAINTAIN WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT ITS
TRACK THEN INCREASE THEM TO 50 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM NEWFOUNDLAND.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
REMNANT OPHELIA IS REALLY NO LONGER A TROPICAL ENTITY HOWEVER IT 
CONTINUES TO CARRY A LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALLS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE ALREADY EASING DOWN OVER 
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS AND RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR
THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ENDED WITH THE 4.00 PM REGULAR PUBLIC 
FORECAST. HOWEVER RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR 
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS AS THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT
OF ITS TRACK.
WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY.
SOME WIND WARNINGS MAY NOT QUITE VERIFY...GUSTS INTO THE 80 TO
90 KM/H RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED BUT MAY NOT EXCEED THE 100 KM/H 
WARNING THRESHOLD. AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS EXPOSED EASTERN COASTAL 
SITES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE THRESHOLD IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS 
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST IN A EXPANDING SWATH AROUND OPHELIA THROUGHOUT ITS
TRACK ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.
THE ONLY REMAINING GALE WARNING FOR MARITIMES WATERS WILL BE
FOR BANQUEREAU AND LAURENTIAN FAN.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SURF THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE 
SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA IS MOVING INLAND NEAR THE
TIME OF LOW TIDE. HOWEVER GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SWELL COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WHEN TIDES WILL BE HIGHER.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
18/18Z   50 180 180  60     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
19/06Z   90 200 200  90    30  60   0  30     0   0   0   0
19/18Z  150 220 200 120   120 120  80  80     0   0   0   0

END MCILDOON