WOCN31 CWHX 231800 HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 23 OCTOBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... WILMA TO AFFECT ATLANTIC CANADA AS A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 N AND LONGITUDE 85.5 W... ABOUT 165 NAUTICAL MILES OR 305 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF CANCUN INTL . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 23 3.00 PM 23.5N 85.5W 970 90 167 OCT 24 3.00 AM 23.8N 84.5W 965 95 176 OCT 24 3.00 PM 25.9N 81.5W 976 80 148 OCT 25 3.00 AM 29.6N 77.4W 977 65 120 OCT 25 3.00 PM 35.7N 72.1W 976 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 3.00 AM 41.0N 67.8W 978 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 3.00 PM 44.9N 64.5W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 3.00 AM 47.6N 62.3W 986 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 3.00 PM 48.9N 58.9W 988 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 28 3.00 AM 50.1N 55.0W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 28 3.00 PM 50.9N 50.0W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE LEFT OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR MOST MARINE AREAS AND STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN AREA CLOSE TO AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS WILMA IS STILL CURRENLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADING TOWARD FLORIDA. B. PROGNOSTIC SHORT TERM FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIAMI TRACK. IN THE LONGER RANGE WE FOLLOW THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE WILMA WILL BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE CHC RESPONSE ZONE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL REMAINS FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST MAY REQUIRE SOME UPDATING AS THIS PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILMA IS UNUSUAL IN THAT THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDES. THIS IS A PROCESS THAT USUALLY TAKES PLACE AS THE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER MIDDLE AND HIGHER LATITUDES. BECAUSE OF THIS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POST TROPICAL WILMA WILL NOT HAVE MANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT REACHES ATLANTIC CANADA. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE ENERGY OF THE STORM WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A LARGE AREA RATHER THAN CONCENTRATED INTO A SMALL INTENSE TROPICAL SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT NEARLY ALL OF ATLANTIC CANADA...BUT THE EFFECTS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THOSE WITH A HURRICANE OR A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM. C. PUBLIC WEATHER WIND AND RAIN FROM THE POST TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FOR PUBLIC REGIONS WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 90 KM/H RANGE...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40 TO 70 MM RANGE. THESE NUMBERS ARE FOR OUTLOOK PURPOSES ONLY AND FORECASTS AND WARNINGS WITH MORE PRECISE VALUES WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 23/18Z 170 190 150 170 100 110 80 90 70 70 50 45 24/06Z 190 200 190 170 110 120 90 90 75 75 70 50 24/18Z 200 210 170 160 120 140 90 80 75 75 75 50 25/06Z 200 240 140 150 120 150 80 80 40 40 30 20 25/18Z 210 260 130 150 130 150 90 90 0 0 0 0 26/06Z 210 260 130 150 130 150 90 90 0 0 0 0 26/18Z 210 250 120 120 120 140 80 80 0 0 0 0 27/06Z 210 240 120 120 120 130 80 80 0 0 0 0 27/18Z 200 220 120 100 90 60 60 80 0 0 0 0 28/06Z 150 150 150 150 60 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 28/18Z 150 150 150 150 60 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 END MILLER