WOCN31 CWHX 240000 HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 23 OCTOBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...WILMA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL STORM WHILE AFFECTING ATLANTIC CANADA WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 W... ABOUT 190 NAUTICAL MILES OR 350 KM SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 959 MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 23 9.00 PM 23.9N 84.2W 959 90 167 OCT 24 9.00 AM 25.9N 81.6W 956 95 176 OCT 24 9.00 PM 29.1N 77.5W 970 75 139 TRANSITIONING OCT 25 9.00 AM 34.0N 73.1W 969 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 25 9.00 PM 39.4N 68.2W 967 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 AM 42.9N 65.4W 972 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 PM 46.0N 62.7W 975 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 9.00 AM 48.2N 60.6W 978 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 9.00 PM 49.5N 57.0W 983 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 28 9.00 AM 50.5N 52.5W 988 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 28 9.00 PM 51.3N 47.5W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL WILL BE AHEAD OF AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR MOST MARITIME WATERS ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM TRACK. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS WILMA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TODAY ON ITS APPROACH TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WILMA IS ALSO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. B. PROGNOSTIC SHORT TERM FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIAMI TRACK. IN THE LONGER RANGE WE FOLLOW THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE WILMA WILL BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE CHC RESPONSE ZONE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL REMAINS FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST MAY REQUIRE SOME UPDATING AS THIS PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILMA IS UNUSUAL IN THAT THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDES. THIS IS A PROCESS THAT USUALLY TAKES PLACE AS THE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER MIDDLE AND HIGHER LATITUDES. BECAUSE OF THIS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POST TROPICAL WILMA WILL NOT HAVE MANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT REACHES ATLANTIC CANADA. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE ENERGY OF THE STORM WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A LARGE AREA RATHER THAN CONCENTRATED INTO A SMALL INTENSE TROPICAL SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT NEARLY ALL OF ATLANTIC CANADA...BUT THE EFFECTS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THOSE WITH A HURRICANE OR A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA MAY ALSO BECOME INGESTED INTO THE LARGE STORM. THIS COULD AID IN THE REINTENSIFICATION OF THIS STORM AS A POST-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER WIND AND RAIN FROM THE POST TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FOR PUBLIC REGIONS WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 90 KM/H RANGE WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40 TO 70 MM RANGE. THESE NUMBERS ARE FOR OUTLOOK PURPOSES ONLY AND FORECASTS AND WARNINGS WITH MORE PRECISE VALUES WILL BE ISSUED EARLY MONDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER NOTE THAT AS WILMA UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION..STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN BANDS THAT COULD BE WELL-REMOVED FROM THE ACTUAL STORM CENTER. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 24/00Z 180 195 170 170 105 115 85 90 70 70 60 45 24/12Z 195 205 180 165 115 130 90 85 75 75 70 50 25/00Z 200 225 155 155 120 145 85 80 55 55 50 35 25/12Z 205 250 135 150 125 150 85 85 0 0 0 0 26/00Z 210 260 130 150 130 150 90 90 0 0 0 0 26/12Z 210 255 125 135 125 145 85 85 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 210 245 120 120 120 135 80 80 0 0 0 0 27/12Z 205 230 120 110 105 95 70 80 0 0 0 0 28/00Z 175 185 135 125 75 60 60 70 0 0 0 0 28/12Z 150 150 150 150 60 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 29/00Z 150 150 150 150 60 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 END ROUSSEL/FOGARTY