WOCN31 CWHX 240600
HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT MONDAY
24 OCTOBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

 ...WILMA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL STORM WHILE AFFECTING
    THE MARITIMES WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.9 N AND LONGITUDE 82.9 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES OR 185 KM 
SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS... 185 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 956
MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS... 35 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 24  3.00 AM  24.9N  82.9W   956  100  185
OCT 24  3.00 PM  27.4N  79.0W   963   85  157
OCT 25  3.00 AM  32.2N  73.2W   966   80  148 TRANSITIONING
OCT 25  3.00 PM  39.2N  67.5W   969   70  130 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 26  3.00 AM  45.1N  62.0W   976   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 26  3.00 PM  47.7N  59.4W   978   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 27  3.00 AM  48.3N  55.7W   983   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE 
MARITIMES THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA BY EVENING. THERE IS A 
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 120 KM/H ALONG THE 
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 70 MM RANGE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
IN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY MORNING AND REACH CAPE BRETON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES FROM BROKEN TREE
BRANCHES. MANY TREES..PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA
..STILL CONTAIN LEAVES WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN 
BRANCHES AND POWER OUTAGES.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY POUNDING SURF ARE FORECAST 
TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO 
WEDNESDAY BUT THEIR IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN 
NOVA SCOTIA.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE EASTERLIES OVER SHELF WATERS
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THERE IS A RISK OF 
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY OVER EASTERN SHORE AND SABLE 
REGIONS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

WILMA HAS REINTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY-THREE STATUS AS IT APPROACHES 
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE STORM IS ALSO ACCELERATING AS SEEN ON RADAR 
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT 
RACES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.  THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT
REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AT 00HR..AND IS USED AS THE PRIMARY
GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT. IT SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO CYCLONES..
WILMA AND A BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE..DEEP TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH MOVES INTO 
THE EASTERN U.S. WILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN COCOONED IN THE WARM 
SECTOR OF THE BAROCLINIC LOW EVEN UP UNTIL THE CENTER OF EX-WILMA 
REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. WILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE 582-DAM 
THICKNESS ENVIRONMENT ALL THE WAY TO 45N.  THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE 
THAT WILMA WILL BEHAVE AS A HYBRID CYCLONE WITH A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION...YET WITH A COMPACT WIND CORE POSSIBLY SURVIVING AS IT 
MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS.

BY WEDNESDAY..THE REMANTS OF EX-WILMA AND THE BAROCLINIC LOW MAY BE 
MERGED INTO A LARGE DECAYING LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA MAY ALSO BECOME INGESTED INTO 
THE WILMA TODAY.  THIS COULD AID IN THE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE 
STORM SYSTEM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

SEE DETAILS ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
24/06Z  200 200 150 150   125 125  90  90    65  75  50  50
24/18Z  200 225 200 175   125 140 110  80    70  85  60  40
25/06Z  220 235 215 155   110 165 100  70    70  95  70  25
25/18Z  360 300 300 300   100 150 100   0    30  90  30   0
26/06Z  320 300 300 270   150 150   0  60     0   0   0   0
26/18Z  290 300 300 240   130 150 120  80     0   0   0   0
27/06Z  280 300 350 240   170 150 120  80     0   0   0   0


END FOGARTY