WOCN31 CWHX 260000 HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT MONDAY 24 OCTOBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL STORM POSITION... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 N AND LONGITUDE 75.9 W... ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES OR 470 KM SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 195 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 34 KNOTS...63 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 24 9.00 PM 29.7N 75.6W 955 105 194 OCT 25 9.00 AM 35.7N 70.1W 962 85 157 OCT 25 9.00 PM 41.8N 63.5W 974 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 AM 45.7N 59.3W 983 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 PM 46.0N 54.1W 988 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 9.00 AM 46.1N 47.1W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 9.00 PM 46.2N 39.2W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MARITIMES. THOSE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO REGIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 110 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 70 MM RANGE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO CAPE BRETON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY POUNDING SURF ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THEIR IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ACROSS THE MARITIMES. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE EASTERLIES OVER SHELF WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY OVER EASTERN SHORE..SABLE AND EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE REGIONS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS RAPID FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING SURFACE-RELATIVE WINDS AND NECCESSITATES RE-UPGRADING THE STORM TO CATEGORY-THREE STATUS. B. PROGNOSTIC HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. IT WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO LIE JUST EAST OF CAPE BRETON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ON WEDNESDAY IT IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FLOW WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. AT THIS TIME WE PREFER TO KEEP POST- TROPICAL WILMA AS AN ENTITY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK WEDNESDAY TROUGH FRIDAY. THE GEM REGIONAL IS USED AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF GUIDANCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD THE GFS MODEL SUPPORTS THE EASTWARD TRACK PASSING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER POST-TROPICAL WILMA MAINTAINS AN ENTITY OR NOT..THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY TO THE MARITIMES AND MOST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE DETAILS ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 25/00Z 225 230 210 175 115 145 100 90 75 90 75 40 25/12Z 280 260 250 225 110 150 85 40 50 70 60 30 26/00Z 315 290 285 260 120 150 65 40 0 0 0 0 26/12Z 305 300 305 255 135 150 70 60 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 285 300 330 240 155 150 105 75 0 0 0 0 27/12Z 275 300 375 240 190 150 120 80 0 0 0 0 28/00Z 265 300 425 240 230 150 120 80 0 0 0 0 END ROUSSEL/FOGARTY