WOCN31 CWHX 250817 AAB HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4.17 AM ADT TUESDAY 25 OCTOBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...CORRECTION MADE FOR THE INITIAL STORM SPEED OF MOTION... ...HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO LARGE POST-TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA..GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 4.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 N AND LONGITUDE 70.6 W... ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES OR 500 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 957 MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KNOTS...79 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 25 4.00 AM 33.4N 70.6W 957 105 194 OCT 25 9.00 AM 35.4N 68.6W 965 95 176 OCT 25 3.00 PM 38.6N 66.7W 970 85 157 TRANSITIONING OCT 25 9.00 PM 42.2N 63.4W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 3.00 AM 44.6N 60.4W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 AM 45.3N 57.2W 981 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 3.00 PM 45.5N 54.1W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 PM 45.6N 51.3W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 3.00 AM 45.9N 47.5W 988 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES. SOME RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90 TO 110 KM/H RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN SHORE OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK WHERE UP TO 70 MM COULD FALL. AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50 MM ARE PREDICTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SURF IS FORECAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL..BUT TIDES WILL BE LOW FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GEORGES BANK AS A HURRICANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE SCOTIAN SLOPE WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY..HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE..STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT INCLUDING MOST NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. WILMA'S REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF SABLE ISLAND..THEN MOVE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 9 METERS OVER EASTERN SHORE AND SABLE REGIONS TONIGHT AND TO NEAR 5 METERS IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 105 KTS. THE LAST AIRCRAFT REPORT AT 24/2340Z SUGGESTED 110 KTS. THE CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY IS OWING MOSTLY TO THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION WHICH SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 20 KTS ADDITIONAL WIND SPEED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN COLD..BUT THE AREA OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS IS BECOMING LIMITED TO PATCHY AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND..THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRACTED..SO WILMA IS IN NO HURRY TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY JUST YET. B. PROGNOSTIC THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ISSUE DOES NOT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS. HOWEVER..GIVEN WILMA'S PERSISTENTLY HIGH INTENSITY..IT WILL NOW LIKELY REACH CANADIAN WATERS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE ANTICIPATED OVERLAND IMPACTS ESSENTIALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED..WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEING FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND. THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THIS EVENING..26/00Z..REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE GEM BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF WILMA OVER CAPE BRETON AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. HOWEVER..THIS SOLUTION GOES AGAINST MOST OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ROUNDING A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AND MOVING IT SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING ENOUGH TO BRING THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THAT BEING SAID..THE OVERALL PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GEM..INCLUDING THE FORMATION OF A BAROCLINC LOW WELL TO THE WEST NEAR CAPE COD.. APPEARS REASONABLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS TO BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. IF EX-WILMA MANAGES TO COME A BIT CLOSER THE THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST PRIOR TO ROUNDING THE RIDGE..THEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS THAN ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTED MAY OCCUR. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WITH THE ORIGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER DISSIPATING WELL TO THE EAST. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE DETAILS ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 25/07Z 220 245 225 175 140 155 105 105 75 90 75 40 25/12Z 340 360 360 300 240 180 140 180 75 90 75 40 25/18Z 320 360 420 330 240 190 145 220 65 85 60 20 26/00Z 300 360 480 360 240 200 150 240 60 80 40 0 26/06Z 300 330 490 360 240 205 180 270 0 0 0 0 26/12Z 300 300 500 400 240 210 210 300 0 0 0 0 26/18Z 270 270 500 420 220 200 195 300 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 240 240 500 480 200 180 180 300 0 0 0 0 27/06Z 220 220 400 450 180 160 170 300 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY