WOCN31 CWHX 251200 HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT TUESDAY 25 OCTOBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO LARGE POST-TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA..GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 N AND LONGITUDE 68.0 W... ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES OR 500 KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS... 176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 25 9.00 AM 36.0N 68.0W 965 95 176 OCT 25 3.00 PM 38.8N 66.0W 970 85 157 TRANSITIONING OCT 25 9.00 PM 41.9N 63.1W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 3.00 AM 44.0N 60.0W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 AM 44.8N 57.0W 981 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 3.00 PM 45.0N 54.0W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 PM 45.0N 51.1W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES. SOME RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90 OR 100 KM/H RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN SHORE OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK WHERE UP TO 70 MM COULD FALL. AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50 MM ARE PREDICTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL..BUT TIDES WILL BE LOW FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WILMA MAY BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER SCOTIAN SLOPE WATERS THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY..HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE..STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT INCLUDING MOST NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. WILMA'S REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR OR SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND..THEN MOVE EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 7 METERS OVER EASTERN SHORE AND SABLE REGIONS TONIGHT AND TO NEAR 5 METERS IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM APPEARS MORE RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING FURTHER EAST AND A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WILMA'S CIRCULATION MAY ALSO BE VERTICALLY DECOUPLED DUE TO INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR..AND THE INFERRED CENTRE FROM INFRARED IMAGERY MAY BE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. B. PROGNOSTIC INDICATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE THAT WILMA MAY RACE BY WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE STILL EXPECT INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND.. BUT MAY NOT EXPERINCE THE 100 KM/H WIND GUSTS ADVERTISED UP TILL NOW. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN SPITE OF THE INITIAL RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING..THE GEM BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF WILMA OVER CAPE BRETON AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. HOWEVER..THIS SOLUTION GOES AGAINST MOST OTHER GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS..WHICH INDICATE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ROUNDING THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING ENOUGH TO BRING THE LOW INTO CAPE BRETON. THAT BEING SAID..THE OVERALL PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GEM..INCLUDING THE FORMATION OF A BAROCLINC LOW WELL TO THE WEST NEAR CAPE COD.. APPEARS REASONABLE. THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS TO BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. GIVEN WHAT IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WITH THE STORM'S AGGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION..IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT 100-KM/H WIND GUSTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WITH THE ORIGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER DISSIPATING WELL TO THE EAST. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE DETAILS ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 25/12Z 340 360 360 300 240 180 140 180 75 90 75 40 25/18Z 320 360 420 330 240 190 145 220 65 85 60 20 26/00Z 300 360 480 360 240 200 150 240 60 80 40 0 26/06Z 300 330 490 360 240 205 180 270 0 0 0 0 26/12Z 300 300 500 400 240 210 210 300 0 0 0 0 26/18Z 270 270 500 420 220 200 195 300 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 240 240 500 480 200 180 180 300 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/PARKES