WOCN31 CWHX 131200
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT 
TUESDAY 13 JUNE 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

 ... ALBERTO TO MOVE THROUGH CANADIAN WATERS AS A POST TROPICAL
STORM...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 N AND LONGITUDE 84.2 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 95 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 994 MB. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15
KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUN 13  9.00 AM  29.6N  83.9W   994   55  102
JUN 13  9.00 PM  31.1N  82.8W  1000   45   83
JUN 14  9.00 AM  33.3N  80.6W  1002   40   74
JUN 14  9.00 PM  35.8N  76.3W  1004   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 15  9.00 AM  38.7N  70.5W  1002   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 15  9.00 PM  41.9N  64.8W  1000   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 16  9.00 AM  45.2N  58.9W   997   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 16  9.00 PM  48.8N  51.8W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 17  9.00 AM  51.8N  42.3W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NONE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
MARINE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY FOR SOUTHERN MARITIME
AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
AS DISCUSSED IN THE NHC BULLETINS ALBERTO HAS LOST A LOT OF ITS 
EARLIER STRENGTH AND THE WIND FIELD HAS BROADENED SOMEWHAT INDICATING 
THAT IT MAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING SOME TRANSITION.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE ARE FOLLOWING THE NHC ON THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS A SOLUTION IN THE 
MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODELS. WE BELIEVE THIS TO BE PRUDENT.
THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS TAKE POST-TROPICAL ALBERTO THROUGH CAPE
BRETON TO SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND ALL AT VARYING SPEEDS.

THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS GIVE MIXED MESSAGES DEPENDING
ON THE MODELS. SOME ARE CLEARLY INDICATING TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 36 
HRS WHILE OTHER ARE NEVER TAKING IT TO BE ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE. 
HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVES AND THE WAY MOST 
MODELS SHOW ALBERTO BEING GRABBED BY THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW 
LEAD US TO EXPECT TRANSITION TO BEGIN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE 
CURRENT BEHAVIOUR AND SATELLITE SIGNATURE MAKE US COMFORTABLE WITH 
THAT DECISION.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF ALBERTO SHOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL 
HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ATLANTIC CANADA BUT THERE 
IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT 
DETAILS. WE WILL PROVIDE MORE GUIDANCE ON THIS THIS AFTERNOON.

D. MARINE WEATHER
AS PREDICTED ALBERTO WILL BE A GALE EVENT IN SOUTHERN ATLANTIC 
CANADIAN WATERS. IT SHOULD BE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO KEEP WAVE 
HEIGHTS FROM BUILDING TO ANY GREAT EXTENT. WE HAVE INCLUDED A WIND 
RADII TABLE EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 
THE TIME IT REACHES CANADIAN WATERS . . . HENCE THE GALE RADII AT 
THAT TIME WILL BE QUITE LARGE . . . MUCH LARGER THAN WITH A TYPICAL 
TROPICAL STORM.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
13/12Z   90 120  40  20    20  40   0   0     0   0   0   0
14/00Z   90 120  30   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
14/12Z   90  90   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/00Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/12Z  120 180  30   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/00Z  200 250  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/12Z  250 350  90  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z  250 400  90 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z  250 450  90 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END (BOWYER)