WOCN31 CWHX 140000
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT 
TUESDAY 13 JUNE 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

 ...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO APPROACH ATLANTIC CANADA AS A POST-TROPICAL
STORM LATER THIS WEEK...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 N AND LONGITUDE 82.7 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 140 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 1000 MB. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUN 13  9.00 PM  31.5N  82.7W  1000   35   65
JUN 14  9.00 AM  33.4N  80.1W  1007   30   56
JUN 14  9.00 PM  35.9N  75.9W  1006   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 15  9.00 AM  39.0N  70.2W  1002   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 15  9.00 PM  43.0N  61.8W   999   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 16  9.00 AM  46.7N  53.9W   998   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 16  9.00 PM  50.1N  46.2W   996   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 17  9.00 AM  52.8N  38.2W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 17  9.00 PM  55.0N  30.0W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 18  9.00 AM  57.5N  21.0W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 18  9.00 PM  60.0N  12.0W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ALBERTO APPROACHES
ATLANTIC CANADA AS A POST-TROPICAL STORM. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK 
WOULD KEEP STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM LAND REGIONS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOST MUCH OF ITS TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS BY THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN WATERS
ON THURSDAY..GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRANSFORMS INTO
A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHEN THIS TRANSITION OCCURS WE EXPECT 
THAT THE RANGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT (I.E. SOUTH) OF THE STORM TRACK...MEANING THAT SOUTHERN 
MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE GALES WHEN 
THE LOW PASSES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
ALBERTO IS NOW INLAND OVER GEORGIA WITH MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THE 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1000 MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE LATEST SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS GIVE A CLEAR PATH FOR ALBERTO
..TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE GEM GLOBAL AND GFS 
ARE SIMILAR AND LEAD US TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GEM REGIONAL IS OFFERING A VERY 
DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAROCOLINIC 
CYCLONE ON APPROACH TO CANADIAN WATERS. WE SUSPECT THAT IT IS 
OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE INPUT SINCE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS.
HOWEVER..IT IS A CAUTIONARY POINT TO KEEP IN MIND OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR TRACK IS SIMILAR TO OUR EARLIER FORECAST AS IT 
REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEMS TO BE A LIKELY SCENARIO FOR PORTIONS OF 
NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE REMNANT LOW PASSES BY
TO THE SOUTH. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LOW AND ITS FRONTS SHOULD BE 
SUFFICIENTLY FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP AMOUNTS FROM BEING SIGNIFICANT.
WE WILL MONITOR THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER