WOCN31 CWHX 140600
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT 
WEDNESDAY 14 JUNE 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

 ...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO APPROACH ATLANTIC CANADA AS A
POST-TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 N AND LONGITUDE 81.9 W... ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL
MILES OR 80 KM NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1004 MB. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUN 14  3.00 AM  32.6N  81.9W  1004   35   65
JUN 14  3.00 PM  35.0N  78.0W  1004   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 15  3.00 AM  38.0N  71.0W  1001   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 15  3.00 PM  41.3N  63.8W   998   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 16  3.00 AM  45.0N  57.0W   996   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 16  3.00 PM  48.5N  50.5W   999   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 17  3.00 AM  51.0N  43.0W  1000   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 17  3.00 PM  53.9N  34.1W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 18  3.00 AM  56.2N  25.5W   995   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON THURSDAY AS POST-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO PASSES
NEAR SABLE ISLAND..IT NOW APPEARS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA FOR THE TIME
BEING..BUT OF COURSE THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING..AND IF THE CURRENT TRACK PROVES CORRECT
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BECOME REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS
AWAY FROM MOST INLAND REGIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY
MORNING.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOST MUCH OF ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE TIME IT REACHES CANADIAN
WATERS ON THURSDAY..GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER MOST
OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSFORMS INTO A FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT GALE WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NOVA SCOTIA MARINE AREAS OF BROWNS BANK..
GEORGES BANK.. SOUTHWESTERN SHORE.. LAHAVE BANK.. WEST
SCOTIAN SLOPE.. EASTERN SHORE.. SABLE.. EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE..
BANQUEREAU.. AND LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
ALBERTO IS STILL INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND IS
NEARING THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING NORTH OF ALBERTO.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST PATH FOR ALBERTO
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPEN POST-TROPICAL ALBERTO ON THURSDAY AND THIS IS LIKELY
THE MODEL OVERDOING THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULTING IN
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GEM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
AN OUTLIER IN THIS CASE AS OTHER MODELS OFFER MUCH MORE MODEST 
DEEPENING. OUR FORECAST TRACK REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

END/LAFORTUNE