WOCN31 CWHX 200600 TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 N AND LONGITUDE 73.3 W... ABOUT 105 NAUTICAL MILES OR 195 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB. BERYL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH JUL 20 3.00 AM 37.4N 73.3W 1000 55 102 JUL 20 3.00 PM 39.1N 72.1W 996 55 102 JUL 21 3.00 AM 40.7N 69.8W 998 50 93 JUL 21 3.00 PM 42.5N 66.3W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 3.00 AM 45.5N 60.0W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 3.00 PM 47.0N 52.5W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 3.00 AM 48.5N 48.0W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 3.00 PM 50.2N 45.0W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 24 3.00 AM 52.0N 41.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 24 3.00 PM 56.5N 40.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 25 3.00 AM 60.0N 39.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY 20 TO 30 MM OF RAIN OVER NB WITH HALF OF THAT OVER NS ON FRIDAY. GUSTS TO 70 KM/H OVER SOUTH SHORE OF NS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS POSTED IN OUR NS MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE MARINE DISTRICT. GALES CARRIED FORWARD IN EXTENDED MARINE BASED ON OUR FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BLOSSOMING MORE NORTH-NORTH WEST OF POSITION. BERYL IS OVER SST VALUES OF 26C WATER. NEW RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE POSITION OF BERYL TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. BERYL IS OVER SST VALUES OF 26C. B. PROGNOSTIC IN A GENERAL SENSE..THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DOES NOT VARY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRACK FOLLOWS NHC GUIDANCE. BERYL WILL SHOW SLIGHT STRENGHTENING OVER NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER. ONCE BERYL PASSES NORTH OF 41N..IT MOVES INTO COLDER WATER AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. AT ANALYSIS TIME THERE IS A VORT TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO LIE ABOUT 6 DEG NORTHWEST OF BERYL AT 12Z FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME BERYL COMES UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM WEST TO LIE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK BY 00Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE FROM BERYL WILL FEED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM THUS LEADING TO HEAVIER PCPN OVER NB. COARSER RESOULTION GFS AND CDN GBL GRAB BERYL AND PLACE IT ON FRONT AT 48HR. GEM DOES MAKES A GOOD JOB OF KEEPING BERYL OFF SOUTH SHORE OF NS ALBEIT A BIT TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. USED 500 MB VORT ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WHICH GFS AND GLOBAL PRESERVED DESPITE THEIR INTERACTION WITH FRONT. FOLLOWED THIS VORT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING UPPER FLOW TO KEEP BERYL SOUTH OF THE BURIN PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE FORECAST A TRACK SOMEWHAT SOUTH AND MUCH FASTER UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS LOSES VORT IDENTITY ONCE BERYL PASSES THROUGH CAPE RACE SO UTILISED CDN GLB THROUGH REMAINING CANADIAN WATERS. THEREAFTER THE REMNANTS OF BERYL SLIDES TOWARD GREENLAND UP THE REAR FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OF COURSE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN ALL OF THIS. TO WHAT DEGREE WILL THE FRONT INTERACT WITH BERYL IS A TROUBLING QUESTION. IT IS CLEAR THAT I HAVE FAVOURED KEEPING BERYL AS AN ENTITY THAT IS SEPARATE FROM THE FRONT. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SINCE BERYL IS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT PASSES NS.. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE THERE. ROUGHLY FOLLOWED GEM FOR AMOUNTS OVER NB. DO NOT EXPECT WIND TO BE AN ISSUE HOWEVER WE USE GUSTS TO 70 KM/H OVER SOUTH SHORE LATE FRIDAY WHICH MATCHES OUR GALE WARNING. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 20/06Z 100 90 45 40 15 15 10 10 0 0 0 0 20/18Z 100 105 65 40 20 30 15 5 0 0 0 0 21/06Z 100 110 75 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 21/18Z 100 110 75 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/06Z 100 120 75 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/18Z 105 130 85 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/06Z 115 145 95 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/18Z 130 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/06Z 140 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/18Z 150 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25/06Z 160 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL