WOCN31 CWHX 201200 TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... TS BERYL TO BRUSH ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES OR 185 KM SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001 MB. BERYL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH JUL 20 9.00 AM 38.2N 73.0W 1001 50 93 JUL 20 9.00 PM 39.8N 71.7W 998 55 102 JUL 21 9.00 AM 41.8N 68.9W 998 50 93 JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.3N 64.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 AM 46.4N 56.9W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 PM 47.6N 50.3W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 AM 49.3N 46.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 PM 51.0N 43.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 24 9.00 AM 54.1N 40.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 24 9.00 PM 58.3N 40.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY 20 TO 30 MM OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. GUSTS OF 80 KM/H MAY BRUSH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND GALES ARE CARRIED FORWARD IN THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECASTS BASED ON OUR FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS ?HERE WAS A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORM CENTRE BASED ON AIR RECON AT 06Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM CENTRE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. 12Z POSITION BASED ON NHC UPDATED MESSAGE INDICATING IT IS A RECON FIX. B. PROGNOSTIC TRACK FOLLOWS NHC GUIDANCE. ?HE 06Z ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN OUR FORECAST TRACK. WE GENERALLY FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE OVER NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT BERYL NOW CROSSES THE COASTLINE OF NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL WILL SHOW SLIGHT STRENGHTENING OVER NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER. ONCE BERYL PASSES NORTH OF 41N IT MOVES INTO COLDER WATER AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AT 00Z UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A VORT TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO LIE ABOUT 6 DEG NORTHWEST OF BERYL BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME BERYL COMES UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO LIE OVER NE NEW BRUNSWICK BY 00Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE FROM BERYL IS EXPECTED TO FEED INTO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THUS LEADING TO HEAVIER PCPN OVER NB. THE GFS AND CDN GBL MODELS GRAB BERYL AND PLACE IT ON FRONT AT 48HR. GEM MAKES A GOOD JOB OF KEEPING BERYL OFF SOUTH SHORE OF NS ALBEIT A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST. USED 500 MB VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WHICH GFS AND GLOBAL PRESERVED DESPITE THEIR SURFACE INTERACTION WITH FRONT. FOLLOWED THIS VORT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING UPPER FLOW TO KEEP BERYL SOUTH OF THE BURIN PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE FORECAST A TRACK SOMEWHAT SOUTH AND MUCH FASTER UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS LOSES VORT IDENTITY ONCE BERYL PASSES THROUGH CAPE RACE SO UTILISED CDN GLB THROUGH REMAINING CANADIAN WATERS. THEREAFTER THE REMNANTS OF BERYL SLIDES TOWARD GREENLAND UP THE REAR FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS AGREES WITH NOGAPS EXCEPT THAT IT PUSHES BERYL THROUGH UPPER RIDGE. THE 0533Z RUN OF THE GFDL TAKES BERYL ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS AS AN OUTLIER... HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD LEAN ONE TO THINK IT LOOKS MORE APPROPRIATE IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. WE ARE WATCHING THIS. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE FOR NOGAPS AND GFS SHOW RAPID TRANSITION ON THE 21ST... SUCH THAT TRANSITION MAY BE COMPLETED BY THE TIME IT REACHES WESTERN MARITIME WATERS. INTERESTINGLY THESE MODELS MOVE IT ALMOST DIRECTLY FROM SYMMETRIC WAMR CORE TO ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE . . . BUT THE TRANSITION IS RATHER QUICK. OTHER MODELS KEEP IT LOOKING MOSTLY TROPICAL HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO NOW EXPECT TRANSITION CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT WILL BE DRIVING IT THROUGH CANADIAN WATERS. OF COURSE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN ALL OF THIS. TO WHAT DEGREE WILL THE FRONT INTERACT WITH BERYL IS A TROUBLING QUESTION.. ESPECIALLY NOW THAT BERYL WAS REPORTED FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED AT 06Z. TO THIS POINT WE ARE FAVOURING BERYL AS AN ENTITY THAT IS SEPARATE FROM THE FRONT. C. PUBLIC WEATHER A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER WEST WILL REQUIRE A RE-THINK ON OUR RAIN AMOUNTS. BERYL IS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT PASSES THROUGH NS.. HOWEVER SINCE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN THIS MAY REQUIRE A RETHINK OF OUR P.E.I. AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WIND MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE AS ASPC FORECASTS HAVE GUSTS TO 70 KM/H OVER SOUTH SHORE LATE FRIDAY WHICH MATCHES THEIR CURRENT MARINE WARNINGS. D. MARINE WEATHER A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK MAY REQUIRE AN ADJUSTMENT OF ASPC MARINE FORECASTS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO DIRECTION. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 20/12Z 120 90 60 50 40 40 20 20 0 0 0 0 21/00Z 120 90 60 50 40 40 20 20 0 0 0 0 21/12Z 120 90 60 50 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/00Z 150 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/12Z 150 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/00Z 160 120 70 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/12Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/00Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/12Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25/00Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL/BOWYER