WOCN31 CWHX 200000 TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 19 JULY 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...TROPICAL STORM BERYL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 N AND LONGITUDE 73.4 W... ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OR 220 KM NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. BERYL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH JUL 19 9.00 PM 36.5N 73.4W 1002 50 93 JUL 20 9.00 AM 38.0N 73.0W 998 55 102 JUL 20 9.00 PM 39.6N 71.3W 996 55 102 JUL 21 9.00 AM 41.4N 68.8W 997 50 93 JUL 21 9.00 PM 43.0N 65.6W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 AM 44.7N 61.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 PM 46.5N 56.8W 1000 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 AM 48.5N 50.9W 1001 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 PM 50.7N 44.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ARE NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES UNTIL FRIDAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND ON THE WEEKEND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENTER CANADIAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS TROPICAL STORM BERYL GAINED A BIT OF STRENGTH TODAY WHILE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE STORM IS OVER 27-DEGREE SSTS. AIRCRAFT RECON AT 2030Z REPORTED A 49-KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A HEALTHY CDO OVER THE CENTRE THIS EVENING. B. PROGNOSTIC THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PRESENT INTENSITY OR EVEN INTENSIFY A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER 25C+ SST. THEREAFTER..WE EXPECT BERYL TO BE MOVING OVER WATERS UNDER 20C AS IT MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE COOL WATERS..AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL BERYL BECOME BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATER. 60 KTS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE WARM WATERS. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY ACHIEVED WILL NATURALLY HAVE A BEARING ON THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS BERYL MOVING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD WITH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION MERGING WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE MERGING OF STORM AND FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY NEWFOUNDLAND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS OR WHETHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH WIND FROM IT.. BUT WE WILL HAVE BETTER IDEA BY EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE REMNANTS OF BERYL MAY BEHAVE MORE LIKE A FRONTAL WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS WHEN IT ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 20/00Z 100 100 40 40 15 15 10 10 0 0 0 0 20/12Z 100 110 55 40 15 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 21/00Z 100 110 75 45 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 21/12Z 100 110 75 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 22/00Z 100 115 75 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/12Z 100 125 80 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/00Z 110 140 90 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/12Z 125 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/00Z 135 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL