WOCN31 CWHX 211200 CCA TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...CORRECTION TO WIND RADII AND IMPACT STATEMENTS.. ...POST-TROPICAL BERYL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 N AND LONGITUDE 68.2 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 260 KM SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001 MB. BERYL IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH JUL 21 9.00 AM 42.1N 68.2W 1001 45 83 JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.7N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 AM 47.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.4N 51.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 AM 51.8N 45.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING HALIFAX COUNTY FOR AMOUNTS BETWEEN 25 AND 50 MM. EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL LIKELY SEE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 80 KM/H RANGE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 4 METERS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH COASTAL WATERS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING IN SPITE OF THE TRACKING OVER COOL WATER WHICH IS NEAR 17C. MOST OF IT IS APPEARING DOWNSHEAR OR IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED NEAR 45 KNOTS WITH MSLP NEAR 1001 MB. B. PROGNOSTIC WE HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST..BUT STILL KEEP THE CENTRE ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT THE CENTRE TO CROSS EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST REASONING CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF GEM REG OUTPUT AND CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING OF THESE TYPES OF STORMS. MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MERGES THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH TOO SOON..LEADING TO A NORTHWARD-BIASED TRACK. THE GEM REG TRACK LOOKS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH WE HAVE TO DECREASE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND BUMP UP THE WINDS FOR OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING OF THE LOW LOOKS GOOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE INFLATED SOMEWHAT FROM THE GEM REG TO REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS THAT WOULD OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS FROM THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN PREDICTED BY GEM IS REMINISCENT OF A TRANSITIONING TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING IN A FEW BANDS AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTRE. THIS IS WHAT WE EXPECT TO SEE OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. WITHIN THE BANDS..SQUALLY TYPE DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A RAPID MODE OF ET AS INDICATED IN SOME CPS FORECASTS FROM THURSDAY WHERE THE RAINFALL DOES NOT BECOME AS LEFTWARD-SKEWED AS A STRONGLY BAROCLINIC-TYPE TRANSITION. C. PUBLIC WEATHER WE HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE RAIN WARNINGS AND WIND SPEEDS. DETAILED FORECASTS ARE FOUND UNDER FORECAST HEADERS FPCN11/14/15 CWHX FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND UNDER FPCN16 CWHX FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND HAS BEEN ISSUED UNDER THE WOCN16 CWHX HEADER. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 21/12Z 60 60 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/00Z 90 90 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/12Z 90 110 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/00Z 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/12Z 90 170 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/LAFORTUNE