WOCN31 CWHX 220000 POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 AM ADT ...POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 N AND LONGITUDE 63.7 W... ABOUT 16 NAUTICAL MILES OR 30 KM WEST OF TRURO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS...74 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. BERYL IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...46 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH JUL 21 9.00 PM 45.3N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 AM 48.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.2N 51.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 AM 50.0N 46.0W 1004 30 56 POST-TROPICAL JUL 23 9.00 PM 50.0N 41.0W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL JUL 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 36.0W 1008 30 56 DISSIPATING 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA. EXPOSED LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA COULD STILL SEE GUSTS NEAR 80 KM/H UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SUETE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN INVERNESS COUNTY IN CAPE BRETON. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE WITH A MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 61 MM AT BRIER ISLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY QUOTED 64-MM TOTAL AT YARMOUTH WAS NOT THE OFFICIAL AMOUNT. THE OFFICIAL AMOUNT BASED ON DIRECT RAIN GAUGE MEASUREMENTS WAS IN FACT 46 MM OR JUST UNDER 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED AS OF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MM RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN THE HALIFAX AREA WERE BETWEEN 60 AND 80 KM/H AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SMALL TREE BRANCHES WERE BROKEN RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. WE WILL HAVE SOME MORE INFORMATION REGARDING OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS TONIGHT IN OUR MIDNIGHT UPDATE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 5 METERS IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. ROUGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL CAME ASHORE NEAR YARMOUTH AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONGEST WINDS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. OVERALL OUR WIND AND RAIN PREDICTIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED REASONABLY WELL EXCEPT FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN WE EXPECTED THIS MORNING..AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA. THE GUSTS WERE STILL ONLY ABOUT 10 KM/H HIGHER THAN PREDICTED YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 25 MM/HR IN THE PRIMARY LEADING BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF BERYL'S REMNANT LOW CENTRE. B. PROGNOSTIC OUR FAVOURED TRACK PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE UKMET..CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COMPARED TO OUR LAST FORECAST TRACK. POST-TROPICAL BERYL SHOULD TRACK OVER WESTERN CAPE BRETON OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET GFS AND NOGAPS ..THEN TAKE THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ON A SLIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TURN ON SUNDAY WHILE GOING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW. D. MARINE WEATHER NONE. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 22/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/12Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END LAFORTUNE/FOGARTY