WOCN31 CWHX 221800
HURRICANE BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT SATURDAY
22 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6.30 PM NDT

 ...BERYL HEADS OUT TO THE OPEN SEA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
49.8 N AND LONGITUDE 53.5 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 145 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF GANDER . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1004 MB. BERYL IS
MOVING EAST AT 32 KNOTS... 59 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUL 22  3.30 PM  49.6N  52.8W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22  9.30 PM  50.0N  48.5W  1005   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23  3.30 AM  50.0N  45.8W  1006   30   56
JUL 23  9.30 AM  50.0N  43.0W  1006   30   56
JUL 23  3.30 PM  49.0N  41.0W  1007   30   56

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RADAR SHOWS THAT HEAVY P.E.I. ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL HAS BLOWN OUT TO 
SEA. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER P.E.I. IS OCCURING IN WAKE OF BERYL
OVER THE GANDER LOOP DUE TO WIND CONVERGENCE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STILL A STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE
UPPER 30S OVER SOUTH COAST AND EXPOSED AREAS OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKLEY LESS THEN 35 KNOTS..
WE WILL MAINTAIN BERYL AS A GALE CENTRE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH 
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS BECAUSE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR FRICTIONAL 
RETARDATION AS BERYL MOVES OFF THE LAND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
BERYL CLEARLY PASSED JUST NORTHWEST OF GANDER AT 15Z AS YQX WINDS 
VEERED AND DEWPOINT JUMPED.

B. PROGNOSTIC
MAINTAIN BERYL UNDER VORT CENTRE EVEN THOUGH CMC 500MB VORT OBJECTIVE 
ANALYSIS AT 12Z PUT VORT CENTRE TOO FAR AHEAD.  HOWEVER BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATING BERYLS POSITION-TIME PLOTS TO 00Z.. THESE NICELY 
MATCHED UP WITH 12HR GEM VORT POSITION. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST 
POSITION DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WILL WAIT FOR 18Z SYNOS FOR OFFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LEFT BY BERYL. 
HOWEVER A CURSORY LOOK SHOWS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 35 MM LIKELY.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NO WIND RADII DUE TO NON-TROPICAL NATURE OF WIND FIELD.

END CAMPBELL