WOCN31 CWHX 101800 HURRICANE FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ...HURRICANE FLORENCE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES MOVING NORTH... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 N AND LONGITUDE 65.8 W... ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES OR 385 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTH AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 10 3.00 PM 29.1N 65.8W 975 75 139 SEP 11 3.00 AM 31.2N 65.7W 970 90 167 SEP 11 3.00 PM 33.6N 64.8W 965 95 176 SEP 12 3.00 AM 36.3N 62.8W 973 85 157 SEP 12 3.00 PM 39.4N 60.0W 980 75 139 SEP 13 3.00 AM 42.1N 56.8W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL SEP 13 3.00 PM 44.8N 53.1W 987 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 3.00 AM 47.0N 48.8W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 3.00 PM 48.5N 43.9W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 15 3.00 AM 49.9N 38.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 15 3.00 PM 51.3N 32.2W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IT IS TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT HOW FLORENCE WILL AFFECT LAND AREAS OF EASTERN CANADA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES. NOVA SCOTIA IS LESS LIKELY TO SEE DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF LAURENTIAN FAN OF THE MARITIME MARINE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM TUESDAY THEN THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE TO HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE TUESDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AROUND 1800 UTC THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD PASSING WEST OF BERMUDA MONDAY MORNING. FLORENCE IS OVER 29-DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. B. PROGNOSTIC THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON THE TRACK OF THIS HURRICANE BUT THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ITS INTENSIFICATION. FLORENCE MAY APPROACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY EARLY MONDAY NEAR BERMUDA. THEREAFTER..MODELS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO TRACK. SOME BRING THE CENTRE TO WHAT WOULD BE POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE NEAR CAPE BRETON..WHILE OTHERS BRING IT SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. EXPERIENCE AND HISTORY TELL US THAT THE LATTER SCENARIO IS MORE PROBABLE. ALSO..THERE IS NO PROMINENT MIDLATITUDE FEATURE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT WOULD IMPART A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL (ASIDE FROM THE STORM TROUGH ITSELF) BY THE TIME FLORENCE REACHES ABOUT 40N. AT THIS TIME..WE CONTINUE WITH A TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE PASS 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE AVALON. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL LARGE SIZE OF THIS STORM AND THE STRONG ZONALLY-ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FAR TO THE NORTH OF IT..RAIN AND WIND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE AND TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACKS. IT WILL BECOME CLEARER LATER ON WHETHER THAT EXPANSIVE AREA OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF ATLANTIC CANADA. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER SEE ABOVE. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 10/18Z 245 210 95 235 75 50 20 65 40 15 15 25 11/06Z 260 230 100 225 95 75 35 65 40 40 30 30 11/18Z 280 255 100 210 100 85 45 55 45 50 40 40 12/06Z 295 290 115 205 105 100 50 60 50 55 45 40 12/18Z 310 330 140 220 115 120 50 65 45 55 40 25 13/06Z 320 345 145 245 120 135 50 70 35 50 35 0 13/18Z 325 340 140 260 115 140 45 60 30 45 20 0 14/06Z 315 325 135 245 105 135 40 45 0 0 0 0 14/18Z 300 300 120 220 90 120 40 35 0 0 0 0 15/06Z 280 280 100 200 70 80 40 30 0 0 0 0 15/18Z 260 260 80 180 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 END ROUSSEL