WOCN31 CWHX 111800 HURRICANE FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT MONDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... HURRICANE FLORENCE BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 N AND LONGITUDE 64.9 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 120 KM NORTH OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 11 3.00 PM 33.4N 65.5W 972 80 148 SEP 12 3.00 AM 35.9N 64.1W 978 75 139 SEP 12 3.00 PM 38.4N 62.2W 983 70 130 SEP 13 3.00 AM 41.9N 58.9W 987 65 120 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SEP 13 3.00 PM 44.8N 54.3W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 3.00 AM 46.6N 49.1W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 3.00 PM 48.2N 43.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 15 3.00 AM 49.6N 36.0W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARITIMES: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CAPE BRETON... DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM BUT WARNINGS HAVE NOT YET BEEN ISSUED. AS WELL ROUGH TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF FROM BREAKING SWELL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 60 KM/H MAY OCCUR IN NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEWFOUNDLAND: STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE DEFINITIVE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT SYSTEMS LIKE THIS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO DELIVER 50-100 MM OF RAINFALL IN 12-24 HOURS. IN GENERAL THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING COASTS OF THE BURIN AND AVALON PENINSULAS ROUGH TO DANGEROUS SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SWELLS FROM THE HURRICANE BREAK ALONG THE COAST. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS AND SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS FOR TUESDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE EYE BECAME NICELY VISIBLE ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY BETWEEN 15-16Z TO HELP LOCATED THE STORM. AS WELL DETAILED OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA CONFIRMED THE HURRICANES STRENGTH AT ABOUT 80 KTS EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS WARMED CONSIDERABLY IN THE WESTERN CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING. FLORENCE HAS BEGUN A TURN NORTHEAST WHICH IS IMPORTANT FOR ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON ATLANTIC CANADA. NHC REPORTS THAT THE STORM SIZE REMAINS LARGE. B. PROGNOSTIC EARLY TRACK MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. GFS AND GFDL BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON BUT IN A DIFFERENT WAY... THE GFDL BRINGS IT CLOSER TO CAPE BRETON BEFORE A HARD SHIFT EASTWARD. NO CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING INTENSITY AND THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY... SO WE BEGIN REFERRING TO IT AS POST-TROPICAL AT THAT TIME. CMC REGIONAL CONTINUES DEEPENING THE STORM THROUGH 48 HRS SUCH THAT IT LOOKS LIKE AN ALARMINGLY LARGE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 11/18Z 250 175 90 175 80 80 40 40 60 60 30 30 12/06Z 250 175 90 175 80 80 40 40 60 60 30 30 12/18Z 250 175 90 250 90 90 40 40 60 60 25 25 13/06Z 300 250 150 250 120 120 40 40 50 50 0 0 13/18Z 350 350 200 250 125 130 90 100 0 0 0 0 14/06Z 350 350 200 250 120 150 150 150 0 0 0 0 14/18Z 350 350 200 250 120 150 150 150 0 0 0 0 15/06Z 350 350 200 250 90 90 90 60 0 0 0 0 CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL RUN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 15M WAVES WITH FLORENCE... WITH REMNANT SWELLS OF 6M MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND 11M MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY. END BOWYER