WOCN31 CWHX 120000 HURRICANE FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT MONDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR WEDNESDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 N AND LONGITUDE 64.5 W... ABOUT 155 NAUTICAL MILES OR 290 KM NORTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 974 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 11 9.00 PM 35.0N 64.5W 974 75 139 SEP 12 9.00 AM 37.5N 62.7W 978 70 130 SEP 12 9.00 PM 40.3N 60.3W 980 65 120 SEP 13 9.00 AM 43.7N 56.8W 982 60 111 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SEP 13 9.00 PM 46.1N 51.7W 983 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 9.00 AM 47.7N 46.1W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 9.00 PM 49.5N 38.7W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARITIMES: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CAPE BRETON... DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM BUT WARNINGS HAVE NOT YET BEEN ISSUED. AS WELL ROUGH TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF FROM BREAKING SWELL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 60 KM/H MAY OCCUR IN NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEWFOUNDLAND: STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE DEFINITIVE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEPT TO SAY THAT SYSTEMS LIKE THIS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO DELIVER 50-100 MM OF RAINFALL IN 12-24 HOURS. IN GENERAL THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE SOUTH FACING COASTS OF THE BURIN AND AVALON PENINSULAS ROUGH TO DANGEROUS SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SWELLS FROM THE HURRICANE BREAK ALONG THE COAST. WE HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ANTICIPATION OF THESE CONDITIONS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS AND SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS FOR TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE DISTRICT. AS MENTIONED IN OUR INITIAL BULLETIN LAST FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SQUEEZE BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.. WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN WATERS BEFORE THE GALES WITH FLORENCE ACTUALLY ARRIVE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS BERMUDA RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT FLORENCE BEGAN A MORE NORTHEASTWARDS TRACK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARMING CLOUD TOPS LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT INITIAL INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO 75 KTS. GALE RADII REMAIN LARGE... OUT TO 250 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. B. PROGNOSTIC DYNAMICAL MODELS... UKMET.. NOGAPS.. MM5 FROM FSU.. AND THE CMC EXPERIMENTAL MESOGLOBAL MODEL ALL TAKE FLORENCE ONSHORE IN NFLD. MEANWHILE THE GFDL.. GFS.. AND CMC OPERATIONAL RUN KEEP IT OFFSHORE. THE 21Z NHC TRACK NUDGES A BIT CLOSER TO THE AVALON PENINSULA IN KEEPING WITH THE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE. THE UNSETTLING ASPECT IS THE'S-SHAPED TRACK THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE.. WITH SOME MAKING A HARD RIGHT TURN NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. THE PREDICTION PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT THE TURN HAPPENS BEFORE OR AFTER LANDFALL. UNLESS IT BECOMES EVIDENT THAT THE STORM WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN OFFSHORE WE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PROXIMITY TO THE COAST UNTIL 12-24 HRS AHEAD OF TIME. SOME MODELS HAVE AN APPARENT MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES AS FLORENCE APPROACHES.. WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE TRACK. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT CONVINCED YET THAT THIS TROUGH IS ANYTHING MORE THAN A REFLECTION OF FLORENCE ITSELF. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 12/00Z 250 175 90 200 80 80 40 40 60 60 30 30 12/12Z 275 175 100 250 90 90 40 60 60 60 30 30 13/00Z 275 175 100 275 90 90 40 40 60 60 30 30 13/12Z 300 225 150 275 100 100 50 50 0 0 0 0 14/00Z 300 350 200 250 120 120 50 50 0 0 0 0 14/12Z 300 425 300 275 120 120 100 100 0 0 0 0 15/00Z 300 500 450 300 120 150 150 120 0 0 0 0 NOTE THAT THE RADII INCLUDE THE GALES THAT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE MARITIME RIDGE. CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL RUN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 15M WAVES WITH FLORENCE... WITH REMNANT SWELLS OF 6M MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND 12M MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE WEDNESDAY. END FOGARTY/BOWYER