WOCN31 CWHX 121200 HURRICANE FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO NEWFOUNDLAND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 N AND LONGITUDE 62.0 W... ABOUT 391 NAUTICAL MILES OR 723 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 12 9.00 AM 37.6N 62.0W 975 65 120 SEP 12 3.00 PM 39.0N 61.2W 975 65 120 SEP 12 9.00 PM 40.3N 60.1W 974 65 120 SEP 13 3.00 AM 42.0N 58.5W 973 60 111 SEP 13 9.00 AM 43.6N 56.6W 972 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 13 3.00 PM 44.9N 54.4W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 13 9.00 PM 46.1N 52.0W 967 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 3.00 AM 47.0N 48.6W 967 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 14 9.00 AM 47.8N 45.4W 968 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARITIMES: WE NOW EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO CAPE BRETON OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT EASTERN CAPE BRETON MAY SEE 5 TO 10 MM OF RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 KM/H BUT THERE COULD BE MUCH MORE RAINFALL IF THE STORM TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST..OR NO RAIN IF IT MOVES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. NEWFOUNDLAND: TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS NEAR 100 KM/H CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCAL COASTAL GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE..120 KM/H..NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75 TO 125 MM (3 TO 5 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WIND AND RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IN ADDITION..HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VERY ROUGH SURF FROM BREAKING SWELL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY WAVE ACTION AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATERS LEVELS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN AREAS AROUND THE BURIN..AVALON AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS ON WEDNESDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FROM SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS. A SWATH OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS AND OVER MANY NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. VERY HIGH SEAS ARE ALSO PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 15 METERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF FLORENCE REPRESENTS A CLASSICAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STRUCTURE WITH CLOUD SHIELD AND CONVECTION PUSHING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED IN INFRARED IMAGERY. FLORENCE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER OF 26C..SO THE LOSS OF CONVECTION AT THE CENTRE IS DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR..AND ALSO AS DIRECTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AT FORECAST TIME IS LIKELY STILL QUITE LOW AS FLORENCE TAPS ENERGY FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS IMMEDIATE NORTH. WE KEEP IT AT 975 MB AT THIS TIME. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION FLARE UP AGAIN THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTRE. B. PROGNOSTIC NUMERICAL MODELS ARE FALLING IN LINE NOW..MOST INDICATING AN INTENSE TRANSITIONING CYCLONE MOVING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH REGARD TO WIND FIELD..BUT PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE. THE 00Z GFS TRACK IS MORE IN LINE WITH OUR OFFICIAL TRACK. EITHER WAY..A HEAVY RAIN AND WINDSTORM IS NOW VERY LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AS THE STORM EVOLVES AND SOME MORE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMES IN..WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE FURTHER DETAILS AND FINE-TUNING OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF DISCREPENCY BETWEEN 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS MODELS. THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE STORM WILL LIKELY DROP A TAD DURING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY ACTUALLY FALL AS FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH. THE WIND FIELD WILL ALSO BE EXPANDING..INCREASING THE STORMS IMPACT OVER A LARGER AREA. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE INFORMATION IS UNFORTUNATELY NOT AVAILABLE AT ISSUE TIME..BUT IT APPEARS THAT FLORENCE IS IN MID-TRANSITION EARLY THIS MORNING. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE INDICATIVE OF A PURE TROPICAL CYCLONE..WE ARE CARRYING RADII DURING THE TRANSITION TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO MARINERS ON THE EXTENT OF THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 12/12Z 300 275 175 275 110 120 60 90 60 60 30 30 12/18Z 300 275 175 275 130 190 80 125 60 70 0 0 13/00Z 350 360 280 290 220 235 120 190 60 60 30 30 13/06Z 300 400 260 260 240 240 120 200 0 0 0 0 13/12Z 360 400 300 260 180 220 120 180 0 0 0 0 13/18Z 330 400 300 270 150 180 200 180 0 0 0 0 14/00Z 320 380 300 280 120 180 200 160 0 0 0 0 14/06Z 300 385 300 290 120 150 150 130 0 0 0 0 14/12Z 280 360 300 290 120 140 130 120 0 0 0 0 TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 15M WAVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS BY ABOUT MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SWELL NEAR 5M MAY APPROACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND 12M IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. END FOGARTY/BOWYER