WOCN31 CWHX 201800 HURRICANE HELENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... GALES FROM HELENE EXPECTED TO BRUSH SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 N AND LONGITUDE 56.7 W... ABOUT 550 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1025 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 958 MB. HELENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 20 3.00 PM 26.3N 56.7W 958 90 167 SEP 21 3.00 AM 28.5N 58.1W 955 95 176 SEP 21 3.00 PM 31.4N 58.0W 955 95 176 SEP 22 3.00 AM 34.9N 55.4W 958 90 167 SEP 22 3.00 PM 37.8N 51.8W 965 85 157 SEP 23 3.00 AM 41.9N 45.8W 965 85 157 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SEP 23 3.00 PM 46.5N 39.9W 965 80 148 POST-TROPICAL SEP 24 3.00 AM 51.2N 33.3W 963 70 130 POST-TROPICAL SEP 24 3.00 PM 57.9N 29.6W 960 65 120 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE HELENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS OVER CANADIAN TERRITORY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED FOR NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS FOLLOWING NHC LEAD ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF HELENE. THE STORM HAS CONTINUED A BIT MORE WESTWARD THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SO WE HAVE NUDGED THINGS A BIT WEST TO START WITH. B. PROGNOSTIC NEW 12Z DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... BUT NOW A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH IN THE DAY 3-5 PERIOD. EVEN THE BAMD HAS CAUGHT UP WITH DYNAMIC MODELS IN MOVING THE STORM NORTH. MANY MODELS NOW BEGINNING TO HINT AT A SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS GREENLAND IN THE LONG RANGE... WHILE THE CMC MODEL IS NOW SHOWING LESS OF THIS THAN EARLIER. THE RESULT IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED PACK. WE HAVE PUSHED THE TRACK CLOSER TO CANADIAN WATERS AND ADVANCED ITS SPEED BY AT LEAST 6 HRS FOR THE 72-84 HR TIME FRAME. DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONTINENT INDICATES THAT HELENE WILL BEGIN SOME FORM OF TRANSITION AFTER 48 HRS... HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON THE EXTENT OF BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT... OR NOT... STILL EXISTS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 20/18Z 210 180 150 180 100 75 60 100 40 25 25 40 21/06Z 210 180 150 180 110 75 60 95 45 35 25 35 21/18Z 210 210 180 180 120 120 60 90 50 50 30 30 22/06Z 210 240 180 180 120 120 60 90 50 50 30 30 22/18Z 210 240 210 210 120 120 90 90 50 50 30 30 23/06Z 240 240 240 240 150 150 120 120 45 45 25 25 23/18Z 240 240 240 240 150 150 150 150 40 40 15 15 24/06Z 240 240 240 240 150 150 150 150 35 35 5 5 24/18Z 240 240 240 240 150 150 150 150 25 25 0 0 WE HAVE BEGUN EXPANING THE GALES MORE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR AS WE EXPECT TRANSITION TO BEGIN. END BOWYER