WOCN31 CWHX 210000 HURRICANE HELENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... HELENE EXPECTED TO PUSH GALES INTO SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS FRIDAY NIGHT... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 N AND LONGITUDE 56.9 W... ABOUT 520 NAUTICAL MILES OR 965 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960 MB. HELENE IS MOVING NORTH AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 20 9.00 PM 26.8N 56.9W 960 90 167 SEP 21 9.00 AM 29.9N 58.0W 960 90 167 SEP 21 9.00 PM 33.1N 56.7W 958 95 176 SEP 22 9.00 AM 36.3N 53.6W 962 90 167 SEP 22 9.00 PM 39.8N 48.8W 965 80 148 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SEP 23 9.00 AM 44.2N 42.8W 965 75 139 POST-TROPICAL SEP 23 9.00 PM 48.9N 36.6W 965 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 24 9.00 AM 54.5N 31.4W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE HELENE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS OVER CANADIAN LAND REGIONS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED FOR NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS FOLLOWING NHC LEAD ON INITIAL INTENSITY OF HELENE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR INITIAL LOCATION. B. PROGNOSTIC AS NOTED BY NHC THE MAJORITY OF THE PACK OF DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD IN THE LATEST RUN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ACCOMMODATED THESE MODELS SO WE ARE RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT TRACK. SOME SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER LEFT OF THIS TRACK SO THIS REMAINS AS A CAUTIONARY NOTE. OUR TIMING FITS A BLEND OF THE CMC AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. CLEARLY THE FUTURE OF HELENE BEYOND 48 HOURS HINGES ON ITS INVOLVEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING OFF THE EAST COAST OF CANADA BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. IT APPEARS FROM SOME CURRENT MODELS THAT THE STORM MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT INTERACTION TO RESULT IN BAROCLINIC REINTENSIFICATION BEYOND 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER.. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGNOSTICS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR RESULT ACROSS THE MODELS... THAT HELENE REMAINS WARM CORE DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASYMMETRIES. HENCE THE LONGER RANGE STRUCTURE OF HELENE IS UNCLEAR. HELENE HAS A RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION. AS IT UNDERGOES THE EXPECTED TRANSITION OVER THE COMING DAYS..IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT GALES WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. THE GEM MESO-GLOBAL PARALLEL MODEL SHOWS THE CENTRE CROSSING 40N/50W WHICH WOULD BRING GALES INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 21/00Z 185 185 150 180 75 75 100 75 40 30 25 35 21/12Z 200 210 150 180 90 80 60 90 45 40 25 30 22/00Z 210 230 180 180 90 95 60 90 50 50 30 30 22/12Z 210 240 210 180 100 120 90 90 50 50 30 30 23/00Z 210 240 240 185 100 140 120 90 50 50 25 25 23/12Z 210 240 300 180 120 150 150 90 50 50 20 20 24/00Z 210 240 330 180 120 150 150 90 35 35 10 10 24/12Z 210 240 360 180 120 150 150 90 0 0 0 0 EXPANDING GALES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES LATER IN THE PERIOD ARE A REFLECTION OF TRANSITION TO THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. END BOWYER/FOGARTY