WOCN31 CWHX 211200 HURRICANE HELENE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM NDT THURSDAY 21 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT ...HELENE MAY BRING GALES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 N AND LONGITUDE 56.7 W... ABOUT 445 NAUTICAL MILES OR 825 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS... 157 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 964 MB. HELENE IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH SEP 21 9.30 AM 29.1N 56.7W 964 85 157 SEP 21 9.30 PM 31.8N 56.4W 962 90 167 SEP 22 9.30 AM 34.8N 54.5W 962 90 167 SEP 22 9.30 PM 37.5N 51.0W 963 85 157 SEP 23 9.30 AM 41.0N 46.3W 965 75 139 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SEP 23 9.30 PM 44.3N 41.5W 965 70 130 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SEP 24 9.30 AM 47.0N 36.2W 965 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 24 9.30 PM 50.1N 30.8W 965 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 25 9.30 AM 52.5N 27.0W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY ROUGH SURF FROM 2 TO 3 METRE BREAKING SWELLS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN THE BURIN AND AVALON PENINSULAS. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTS OVER CANADIAN LAND REGIONS ARE EXPECTED. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE CENTRE OF HELENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER THE CENTRE OF THE HURRICANE AND THIS HAS MADE FINDING THE EYE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DATA FROM NHC. B. PROGNOSTIC THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE UKMET TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT, HELENE WILL BE PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE RESPONSE ZONE AND NO IMPACTS WILL BE FELT EVEN OVER THE GRAND BANKS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFDL IS KEEPING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. SO, IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT, GALES ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY. FOR THIS ISSUE, ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION, THE TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, THIS TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF CANADA IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH HELENE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT, HELENE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ITS TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER..THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY (FSU) CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGNOSTICS FROM ALMOST ALL MODELS THAT HELENE REMAINS WARM CORE DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASYMMETRIES. HENCE THE LONGER RANGE STRUCTURE OF HELENE IS UNCLEAR... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SUGGEST A WARM SECLUSION TYPE STRUCTURE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 21/12Z 195 205 155 180 85 80 65 80 40 40 25 30 22/00Z 205 225 180 180 90 95 65 85 45 45 25 30 22/12Z 210 235 210 180 95 115 90 90 50 50 25 25 23/00Z 210 240 245 180 105 135 120 90 50 50 20 20 23/12Z 210 240 290 180 115 145 140 90 45 45 15 15 24/00Z 210 240 330 180 120 150 150 90 25 25 0 0 24/12Z 225 270 360 180 120 150 150 90 15 15 0 0 25/00Z 260 300 390 210 120 165 165 90 15 15 0 0 25/12Z 300 300 420 270 120 195 195 90 0 0 0 0 HELENE HAS A RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION. AS IT UNDERGOES THE EXPECTED TRANSITION OVER THE COMING DAYS..GALES MAY SPREAD INTO THE OUTER EDGES OF THE GRAND BANKS. HOWEVER ANY TRACK WHICH IS FARTHER EAST THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE WOULD LIKELY MEAN THAT GALES WOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE CANADIAN WATERS. END SZETO/BOWYER