WOCN31 CWHX 281800
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT 
THURSDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THIS IS THE ONLY PLANNED STATEMENT FOR TODAY. IF THE TREND IN CURRENT 
STORM DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT THEN THE CHC WILL LIKELY BEGIN 
ISSUING DETAILED TRACK FORECASTS AND INFORMATION STATEMENTS FRIDAY.

 ... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MAY BRING GALES TO THE GRAND
BANKS ON MONDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

INTERPOLATED FROM NHC FORECAST...

AT 3.30 PM NDT... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.4 N AND LONGITUDE 54.9 W... ABOUT 560 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1035
KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1006
MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

THE CHC IS NOT YET ISSUING DETAILED TRACK INFORMATION WITH ISAAC 
HOWEVER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ISAAC MAY PASS THROUGH 
THE GRAND BANKS ON MONDAY AS A GALE CENTRE.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NONE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IF ISAAC TRACKS THROUGH THE GRAND BANKS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD BE 
EXPECTED TO CARRY GALE FORCE WINDS OUT TO A RADIUS OF AT LEAST 150 
KILOMETRES NORTHWEST AND 200 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF THE STORM 
CENTRE. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
ISAAC IS EASILY IDENTIFIED ON VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR PICTURES 
HAVE SHOWN SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT 
LITTLE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE FAVOURABLE 
ENVIRONMENT OF SST AND SHEAR INTO WHICH ISAAC IS MOVING.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NEW MODELS THAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR HAVE EVEN PICKED UP THE SYSTEM 
INITIALLY.
CMC PACKAGE SHOWS STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND
SOUTHWARD... WHICH WILL KEEP THE UPPER FLOW WEAK AND DIFFLUENT...
AN INVITING PROSPECT FOR STRENGTHENING. A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE 
NORTHWEST OF ISAAC AND SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE IS DENOTED WELL ON 
WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE... OR DO NOT HANDLE ISAAC TO THIS POINT... MAY HINGE ON HOW 
THEY DEVELOP THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. IT IS STILL 
TOO EARLY TO BE DEFINITIVE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

NONE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

NONE.

END BOWYER