WOCN31 CWHX 291200 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM NDT FRIDAY 29 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT ... ISAAC EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WATERS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 AM NDT... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 N AND LONGITUDE 55.8 W... ABOUT 490 NAUTICAL MILES OR 905 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS... 7 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH SEP 29 9.30 AM 29.4N 55.8W 1006 40 74 SEP 29 9.30 PM 30.1N 57.0W 1004 40 74 SEP 30 9.30 AM 31.0N 58.3W 1000 45 83 SEP 30 9.30 PM 32.3N 59.6W 997 50 93 OCT 01 9.30 AM 34.4N 60.4W 997 50 93 OCT 01 9.30 PM 37.9N 60.5W 997 50 93 OCT 02 9.30 AM 41.4N 58.7W 997 50 93 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL OCT 02 9.30 PM 45.1N 53.9W 997 50 93 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 47.5N 48.0W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 PM 48.7N 42.5W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC MAY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY SOUTHEASTERN WATERS... NAMELY LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE GRAND BANKS... WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS AS ISAAC TRACKS THROUGH THOSE AREAS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS FOLLOWING NHC LEAD ON INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 10Z INDICATES GALES OUT TO ABOUT 2 DEGREES LATITUDE. B. PROGNOSTIC OUR TRACK... WHICH MIRRORS THE NHC TRACK... FALLS WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET RUN IS FASTER AND FARTHER WEST WHILE THE GFDL IS SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO THE BIG PICTURE. STATISTICAL MODELS GIVE AN ENVELOPE AROUND THE NHC TRACK. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH WE WILL BE CONSIDERING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS WHAT INTERACTION ISAAC WILL HAVE WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO COME OFF THE EAST COAST AND SWEEP THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS. MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS TIME FRAME FOR A FEW DAYS AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME INITIALIZING ISAAC. ACCORDINGLY THE MOISTURE AND VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT LIKELY FACTORING INTO THE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT. WE NEED TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY IN ORDER TO GET A GOOD IDEA OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ISAACS INTERACTION...BASICALLY THE WHEN AND WHERE OF ITS INFLUENCE IN THE CYCLOGENESIS. CONSIDERING THAT ISAAC IS SMALL AND THAT SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE MODELS ANYWAY IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A NEW CENTRE APART FROM THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ISAAC...WHEN THE TIME COMES. ISAAC COULD ALSO JUST AS EASILY GET SHEARED AWAY IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND MISS INTERACTION ALTOGETHER. ALL THIS WILL BE OUR CHIEF FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER QPF FOR 72-120 HOURS SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL THE MODELS START TO INITIALIZE ISAAC BETTER. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 29/12Z 120 120 45 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 120 120 45 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 120 120 45 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/00Z 120 120 60 90 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 01/12Z 120 120 60 90 60 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 02/00Z 120 120 60 90 90 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 02/12Z 180 150 60 90 90 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 240 150 90 90 90 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 240 330 120 120 90 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 240 400 150 120 90 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII REFLECT THE TRANSITION OF ISAAC IN THE LONGER RANGE AND ARE ONLY INTENDED TO SHOW A CONCEPTUAL RATHER THAN DETERMINISTIC TREND. END BOWYER