WOCN31 CWHX 300600 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT SATURDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT ...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC COULD HAVE IMPACT ON WEATHER OVER PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 N AND LONGITUDE 57.8 W... ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES OR 695 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS...111 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH SEP 30 3.30 AM 30.2N 57.8W 994 60 111 SEP 30 3.30 PM 31.1N 59.1W 988 65 120 OCT 01 3.30 AM 32.5N 60.3W 987 65 120 OCT 01 3.30 PM 34.7N 61.0W 990 60 111 OCT 02 3.30 AM 39.0N 60.2W 991 55 102 BEGINNING TRANSITION OCT 02 3.30 PM 43.5N 57.0W 992 55 102 TRANSITIONING OCT 03 3.30 AM 47.3N 51.8W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 50.7N 46.9W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.30 AM 55.6N 44.6W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO PREDICT WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND MAY SEE SOME WIND AND RAIN FROM ISAAC..OR ITS REMNANTS..ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AS WELL AS EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS PRIOR TO GOES SATELLITE ECLIPSE ISAAC APPEARED TO BE INTENSIFYING WITH AN EYE BECOMING APPARENT. ISAAC IS OVER 26- TO 27-DEGREE WATER. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM REMAINS UNDER 10 KTS AND IS DECREASING OVER THE PAST 24 HRS BASED ON CIMSS IMAGERY. B. PROGNOSTIC THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HELPING ISAAC TO INTENSIFY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THE FORWARD MOTION. ON SUNDAY WE FORECAST ISAAC TO BE MOVING IN A MORE NORTHWARD DIRECTION AND STARTING TO WEAKEN OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AS ISAAC MAY BE INTERACTING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAPE COD AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WE EXPECT ISAAC TO BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY THAT TIME. ON MONDAY IT IS EXPECTED THAT ISAAC WILL REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND BE ACCELERATING SWIFTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND..AS INDICATED BY OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER.. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISAAC COULD MERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW..SO THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (2/3 OCT.) C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 30/06Z 100 110 90 90 45 50 50 45 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 100 110 90 90 45 50 50 45 30 30 0 0 01/06Z 120 120 90 90 45 50 50 45 30 30 0 0 01/18Z 120 120 60 90 40 55 50 45 0 0 0 0 02/06Z 120 120 110 90 50 40 50 50 0 0 0 0 02/18Z 150 150 140 90 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 210 240 150 100 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 240 360 150 120 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 240 400 150 120 90 90 60 60 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII REFLECT THE TRANSITION OF ISAAC IN THE LONG TERM AND ARE ONLY INTENDED TO SHOW A CONCEPTUAL..RATHER THAN DETERMINISTIC TREND FOR THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN. END FOGARTY