WOCN31 CWHX 010600 HURRICANE ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT SUNDAY 01 OCTOBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT ...THIS IS A RE-TRANSMISSION ONLY...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... ...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING WIND AND RAIN TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 N AND LONGITUDE 60.1 W... ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES OR 430 KM EAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 988 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 01 3.30 AM 32.9N 60.1W 988 70 130 OCT 01 9.30 AM 33.9N 60.5W 987 70 130 OCT 01 3.30 PM 35.0N 60.6W 987 70 130 OCT 01 9.30 PM 36.7N 60.5W 988 65 120 OCT 02 3.30 AM 39.1N 59.7W 990 60 111 BEGINNING TRANSITION OCT 02 9.30 AM 41.7N 58.5W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 3.30 PM 44.0N 56.4W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 9.30 PM 46.1N 53.9W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING OCT 03 3.30 AM 48.2N 50.9W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 49.9N 48.0W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 51.4N 44.8W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY PERIODS OF RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 40 MM MAY FALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 80 KM/H ARE ALSO EXPECTED. NO INLAND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED YET GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTING THE STORM TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED NEAR 5 AM NDT TO ALERT THE PUBLIC OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNDER HEADER WOCN16 CWHX WILL ALSO BE ISSUED AT 5 AM. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT. WINDS UP TO 60 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SIG WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 7 METRES OVER THE GRAND BANKS AS ISAAC PASSES THAT AREA LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY LEADING UP TO ECLIPSE SHOWED THAT SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WAS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE STORM AND THAT THE EYE WAS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT. B. PROGNOSTIC THIS FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON THE TRACK OF ISAAC. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO FORM BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT MERGE ISAAC WITH THIS LOW..AND INSTEAD QUICKLY PUSH THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER..EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF INTERACTION COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRACK. SOME MODELS TRACK THE CENTRE OF THE STORM ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE CENTRE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT..WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING INLAND WARNINGS UNTIL WE SEE HOW ISAAC BEHAVES TODAY. MOST REASONABLE-LOOKING CYCLONE PHASE SPACE COMES FROM THE GFDL MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND COMPLETING ET TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT..ISAAC MAY STILL CONTAIN A TIGHT WIND FIELD AS IT NEARS THE AVALON PENINSULA. THE COMPLETION OF TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED BY 6 HOURS IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK..WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RATIONALE THAT ISAAC WILL REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER ALTOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK GRAZES THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE SOUTH COAST MARINE DISTRICT OF NEWFOUNDLAND..WE WILL HOLD OFF ON STORM WARNINGS FOR THAT AREA GIVEN THAT THE STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 01/06Z 120 100 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 01/12Z 120 100 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 01/18Z 120 120 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 02/00Z 120 120 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 02/06Z 120 120 75 90 70 60 50 50 0 0 0 0 02/12Z 180 150 75 90 70 90 50 50 0 0 0 0 02/18Z 150 180 120 120 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 180 230 150 120 40 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 210 250 150 130 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 240 300 150 140 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC AND ITS REMANTS AND DO NOT INCORPORATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE. END FOGARTY