WOCN31 CWHX 011800 HURRICANE ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT SUNDAY 01 OCTOBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT ... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WIND TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 N AND LONGITUDE 60.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 510 KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 01 3.30 PM 35.2N 60.3W 987 70 130 OCT 01 9.30 PM 37.2N 60.1W 988 65 120 OCT 02 3.30 AM 39.8N 59.4W 988 65 120 BEGINNING TRANSITION OCT 02 9.30 AM 42.4N 57.7W 988 65 120 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 3.30 PM 44.6N 55.8W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 9.30 PM 46.6N 53.4W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 AM 48.6N 50.3W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 50.2N 47.5W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 51.7N 44.2W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY PERIODS OF RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 60 MM MAY FALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE ISSUING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. ALSO, WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H ARE EXPECTED. SO, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING NEAR CAPE COD TONIGHT WILL MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM ISAAC WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LOW AND THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE ISSUING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 50 MM. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 7 METRES TO THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE STORM TRACK. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UNITED STATES NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. B. PROGNOSTIC THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HAVE ON THE TRACK OF ISAAC. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR CAPE COD TONIGHT. MOST COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT MERGE ISAAC WITH THIS LOW...AND INSTEAD QUICKLY PUSH THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF INTERACTION COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND GEM TRACK THE CENTRE OF ISAAC ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE GFDL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP THE CENTRE JUST OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT..THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BASED ON THE INITAL MOTION. ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS COMING OFF THE US EAST COAST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ISAAC SHOULD START ITS TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FORECAST KEEPS ISAAC AS A HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING AS IT ENTERS THE LAURERNTIAN FAN MARINE REGION, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IF THE TRANSITION HAPPENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER OUR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES SIG WAVES NEAR 7 METRES TO THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE STORM TRACK. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 01/18Z 120 120 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 02/00Z 120 120 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 02/06Z 120 120 75 90 70 60 50 50 45 40 30 20 02/12Z 180 150 75 90 70 90 50 50 30 25 20 0 02/18Z 180 180 120 120 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 180 230 150 120 90 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 210 250 150 130 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 240 300 150 140 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC AND ITS REMNANTS AND DO NOT INCORPORATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE. END SZETO