WOCN31 CWHX 020000 HURRICANE ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT SUNDAY 01 OCTOBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT ...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WIND TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 N AND LONGITUDE 59.5 W... ABOUT 650 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1200 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 985 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS...37 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 01 9.30 PM 37.0N 59.5W 985 70 130 OCT 02 3.30 AM 39.8N 59.0W 988 65 120 BEGINNING TRANSITION OCT 02 9.30 AM 42.4N 57.7W 988 65 120 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 3.30 PM 44.6N 55.8W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 9.30 PM 46.8N 53.3W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 AM 49.0N 50.4W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 50.7N 47.6W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 51.9N 44.3W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 PM 53.1N 41.0W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY PERIODS OF RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 60 MM MAY FALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H. IF THE STORM CENTRE TRACKS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST AND ACTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA..THEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SECTIONS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. AN UNRELATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING NEAR CAPE COD TONIGHT WILL MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM ISAAC WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE LOW AND THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR PEI AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 50 MM. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 7 METRES TO THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE STORM TRACK. IF THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST..THEN PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA COULD EXPERIENCE HIGH WAVES ..ROUGH SURF AND STORM SURGE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF ISAAC. CLOUD TOPS REMAIN COLD AND ISAAC SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS INTENSITY OVER 26-DEGREE WATER. B. PROGNOSTIC THE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH EFFECT (IF ANY) THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON THE TRACK OF ISAAC. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR CAPE COD TONIGHT. MOST COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT MERGE ISAAC WITH THIS LOW...AND INSTEAD QUICKLY PUSH THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF INTERACTION COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS..GEM AND UKMET TAKES THE CENTRE OF ISAAC ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND...WEST OF ST. JOHN'S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE GFDL..NOGAPS AND NAM KEEP THE CENTRE JUST OFFSHORE...EAST OF ST. JOHN'S. THEREFORE..WE FEEL IT PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH THE CENTRE OF ISAAC CROSSING NEAR CAPE RACE. IN FACT..ISAAC IS NOW EAST OF WHERE MOST NUMERICAL MODELS PLACED IT AT THIS TIME. ISAAC WILL MOVE IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES..ISAAC SHOULD START ITS TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FORECAST KEEPS ISAAC AS A HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING AS IT ENTERS THE LAURENTIAN FAN MARINE REGION.. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IF THE TRANSITION HAPPENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE PROVINCE EARLY MONDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL STORM CENTRE. MEANWHILE THE UNRELATED LOW FORMING NEAR CAPE COD WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT. D. MARINE WEATHER OUR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES SIG WAVES NEAR 7 METRES TO THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE STORM TRACK. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/00Z 120 120 60 90 60 45 40 50 45 40 30 40 02/06Z 120 120 75 90 70 60 50 50 45 40 30 20 02/12Z 180 150 75 90 70 90 50 50 30 25 20 0 02/18Z 180 180 120 120 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 180 230 150 120 90 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 210 250 150 130 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 240 300 150 140 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC AND ITS REMNANTS AND DO NOT INCORPORATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE. END SZETO/FOGARTY