WOCN31 CWHX 020600 HURRICANE ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT MONDAY 02 OCTOBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT ...HURRICANE ISAAC ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST..RAIN AND WIND TODAY OVER NEWFOUNDLAND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT...HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 N AND LONGITUDE 58.8 W... ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES OR 470 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS...120 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 988 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...46 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 3.30 AM 39.8N 58.8W 988 65 120 OCT 02 9.30 AM 42.5N 57.4W 988 65 120 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 3.30 PM 44.8N 55.4W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING OCT 02 9.30 PM 46.8N 53.0W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 AM 48.8N 50.0W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 50.5N 46.9W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 51.8N 43.3W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 PM 52.6N 39.4W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.30 AM 53.5N 35.0W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC AND A FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 60 MM MAY FALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY TODAY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS MAINTAINING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STORM CENTRE COULD TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST CROSSING THE AVALON PENINSULA.. THEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA. AT THIS TIME WE STILL BELIEVE THAT THE CENTRE WILL NOT CROSS OVER LAND. RAINFALL AND WIND FORECAST OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY IS NOT RELATED TO HURRICANE ISAAC..RATHER..A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT. A STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST MARINE DISTRICT OF NEWFOUNDLAND REMAINS IN EFFECT..BUT WILL BE ENDED TODAY IF IT APPEARS THAT ISAAC WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THAT AREA. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BANQUEREAU DISTRICT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 9 METRES TO THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. IF ISAAC TRACKS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST..THEN PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA COULD EXPERIENCE HIGH WAVES..ROUGH SURF AND STORM SURGE. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIOR TO THE ECLIPSE SHOWED THAT ISAAC WAS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPENDING ENERGY INTO THE BAROCLINIC LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NOT ISAAC. B. PROGNOSTIC IN LIGHT OF SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS..ISAAC SHOULD REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE LOW TO THE WEST. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING THE SAME TRACK WE HAVE BEEN ISSUING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS. THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE AVALON PENINSULA..BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE STORM CENTRE TO CROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA..AND THAT IS WHY WE MAINTAIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA. MOST OF THE FORECASTING FOR TODAY WILL HINGE ON RAW WEATHER OBSERVATIONS..SATELLITE..AND RADAR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE NOT INITIALIZED ISAAC VERY WELL AT 02/00Z. THE GFS AND GEM RGNL FAIL TO KEEP ISAAC SEPARATE FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA..WHILE THE NAM MODEL HAS A SOLUTION IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE CENTRE NEAR CAPE RACE AT 03/00Z. ISAAC WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT ISAAC WILL BE ENCLOSED BY THE 570 DAM THICKNESS CONTOUR AT 03/00Z..SUGGESTING THAT ISAAC WILL RETAIN SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER FOR A BIT LONGER THAN INDICATED. THE RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WILL LIKELY MIGRATE AHEAD AND TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK TODAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF ISAAC. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC ITSELF WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. D. MARINE WEATHER OUR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES SIG WAVES NEAR 7 METRES AS THE STORM PASSES NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/06Z 150 120 75 75 70 60 50 50 45 40 30 20 02/12Z 180 150 90 100 70 90 50 50 30 25 20 0 02/18Z 180 180 120 120 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 180 230 150 120 90 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 210 250 150 130 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 240 300 150 140 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC'S CIRCULATION AND THE COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF IT. END SZETO/FOGARTY