WOCN31 CWHX 021200 HURRICANE ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM NDT MONDAY 02 OCTOBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.30 PM NDT ...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 N AND LONGITUDE 57.1 W... ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL MILES OR 535 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 988 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS...56 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 9.30 AM 42.8N 57.1W 988 65 120 OCT 02 3.30 PM 45.0N 55.4W 990 60 111 OCT 02 9.30 PM 47.7N 52.6W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 AM 49.4N 49.6W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 50.8N 46.2W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 51.9N 42.7W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 PM 52.7N 38.7W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BURIN AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS. CORRESPONDINGLY..A WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS TO 110 KM/H IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC AND A FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 60 MM MAY FALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY TODAY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS MAINTAINING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL AND WIND FORECASTS OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY ARE NOT RELATED TO HURRICANE ISAAC..RATHER..A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 9 METRES TO THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WAVES.. ROUGH SURF AND STORM SURGE LATER TODAY AS ISAAC ARRIVES. STORM SURGE COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 60 CM OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AVALON. TIDES WILL BE FALLING AT THE TIME. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOWS ISAAC RACING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. CANADIAN BUOYS ARE STILL JUST BEYOND THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC SO AN IN SITU DATA FIX IS NOT YET POSSIBLE. BUOY 44141 11Z REPORT SHOWS NO SIGN OF ISAAC BEING IN THE VICINITY AND WE ARE CONCERNED THAT OUR INITIAL POSITION MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND PROVIDE AN UPDATED POSITION AT 15Z...HOPEFULLY WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. THE LAST FEW IR IMAGES SHOW SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM SO THIS MAY BE FIRST INDICATIONS OF TRANSITION AND A DEVELOPING WESTWARD BIAS OF RAINFALL. B. PROGNOSTIC IN LIGHT OF SOME NEW INFORMATION SINCE OUR OVERNIGHT BULLETIN..THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST AND FASTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER ECLIPSE SHOWS A FASTER INITIAL MOTION. ALSO..MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 06Z SUGGEST THE CENTER OF THE STORM TRACKING OVER THE AVALON. ALSO..OUR IN HOUSE HURRICANE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRE WILL CROSS THE AVALON..AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE IN MIAMI EXPECTS THE CENTRE TO MAKE LANDFALL AS WELL. MOST OF THE FORECASTING FOR TODAY WILL HINGE ON RAW WEATHER OBSERVATIONS..SATELLITE..AND RADAR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL DID NOT INITIALIZE ISAAC VERY WELL AT 02/00Z LAST NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM RGNL FAIL TO KEEP ISAAC SEPARATE FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. ISAAC WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT ISAAC WILL BE ENCLOSED BY THE 570 DAM THICKNESS CONTOUR AT 03/00Z..SUGGESTING THAT ISAAC WILL RETAIN SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER FOR A BIT LONGER THAN INDICATED EARLIER. THE RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WILL LIKELY MIGRATE AHEAD AND TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK TODAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF ISAAC. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC ITSELF WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN LARGE PART DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE CONVECTION HAS OR HAS NOT ERODED AWAY. THE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF ISAAC SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR FROM BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM BEFORE IT AFFECTS NEWFOUNDLAND. GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST 60 MM OF RAIN WITH 80 MM NOT BEING OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE HAVE YET NOT ISSUED HURICANE WATCHES UNTIL WE GET BETTER DATA CONFIRMATION THAT ISAAC IS DEFINITELY AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN OUR WATERS. D. MARINE WEATHER OUR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES SIG WAVES NEAR 7 METRES AS THE STORM PASSES NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/12Z 180 150 90 100 70 90 50 50 30 25 20 0 02/18Z 180 180 120 120 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 180 230 150 120 90 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 210 250 150 130 90 140 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 240 300 150 140 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 240 310 150 140 70 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 THESE RADII ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC'S CIRCULATION AND THE COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF IT. END FOGARTY/BOWYER