WOCN31 CWHX 021800 CCA CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT MONDAY 02 OCTOBER 2006. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.30 PM NDT ... ISAAC TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 PM NDT... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.1 N AND LONGITUDE 52.6 W... ABOUT 31 NAUTICAL MILES OR 58 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 995 MB. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 3.30 PM 46.7N 52.6W 995 50 93 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL OCT 02 9.30 PM 48.9N 49.0W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 AM 50.4N 44.9W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 AM 51.1N 41.1W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 51.1N 37.6W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA WILL END SHORTLY. ALL OTHER TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE ENDED. ISAAC IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN TRACK DIRECTION HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS THE CASE FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA NOW THAT IT APPEARS THAT ISAAC WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HIGH WINDS OVER THE AVALON ARE NOT LIKELY NOW... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AVALON. AS WELL THE AREA OF RAIN HAS NOT EXPANDED WESTWARD VERY FAR. THIS COUPLED WITH THE QUICK FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM MEANS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE MAY BE ENDING RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS IN THEIR AFTERNOON UPDATES AND THE PUBLIC ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THEIR BULLETINS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THERE ARE NO REMAINING WARNINGS IN MARITIME WATERS. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN FOR SOME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF ISAAC. ISAAC IS A SMALL STORM WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF ITS STRONG WINDS TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE STORMS TRACK. BUOY 44138 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS REPORTED PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE HOURS AS ISAAC PASSED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY LOCATION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOY REACHED 5 METRES. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-7 METRES ARE LIKELY RUNNING FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE GRAND BANKS. WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ISAAC. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN MARGINALLY USEFUL TODAY EXCEPT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WHEN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. THE FORWARD MOTION IS BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS AND PRESSURE IS LIKELY IN THE MID 990S AS THE BUOY REPORTED 1000 MB FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. PERHAPS THE MOST SURPRISING ASPECT OF THE STORM HAS BEEN ITS DETERMINATION TO REMAIN AS A COHERENT TROPICAL-LOOKING CIRCULATION IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM TO ITS WEST. THE HEAVIEST CLOUD SHIELD HAS ALREADY PASED NEWFOUNDLAND. B. PROGNOSTIC OUR FORECAST TRACK IS BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON KINEMATIC TECHNIQUES AND FOLLOWING THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ITS PERSISTENCE TO MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WINDS EVEN TO THIS POINT CONVINCES US TO KEEP THIS AS A 50-KNOT SYSTEM THROUGH OUR WATERS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK AT CAPE RACE AT 17Z SO THIS ADDS MORE WEIGHT TO THE STORM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DODGE THE WORST IMPACTS OF ISAAC AS IT SLIPS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH. D. MARINE WEATHER NONE. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/18Z 100 180 90 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 120 200 100 60 60 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 140 210 120 60 60 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 160 240 120 60 60 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 180 240 120 60 60 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 END BOWYER