WOCN31 CWHX 030300
POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.30 AM NDT TUESDAY 03 OCTOBER 2006.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ON ISAAC.

 AT 12.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 49.8 N AND LONGITUDE 47.2 W... ABOUT 255 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 475 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF ST JOHNS. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 34 KNOTS... 63 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS...83 KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 03 12.30 AM  49.8N  47.2W   997   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  3.30 AM  50.5N  44.8W   998   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.30 AM  51.3N  40.8W  1000   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTRE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY..SO 
THE POSITION IS ESTIMATED BY EXTRAPOLATING THE PAST MOTION. THIS PUTS 
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC JUST EAST OF THE FUNK ISLAND
BANK MARINE DISTRICT. SOME SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE LINGERING 
OVER EASTERNMOST NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

STORM SUMMARY:

THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC PASSED APROXIMATELY 45 KM 
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OF
OCTOBER 2ND. ISAAC WAS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
70 KM/H. THE STORM CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL AND STRONG WINDS
WERE CONFINED ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE. THE 
STORM HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS (92 KM/H) AND A
CENTRAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 993 MB AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE 
AVALON PENINSULA. RAIN FROM ISAAC QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AVALON 
BUT DID NOT EXTEND BEYOND TRINITY AND PLACENTIA BAYS. ISAAC WAS
STILL IN ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE PHASE WHEN IT PASSED BY THE AVALON AS
SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. THERE WAS A RAIN-FREE AREA NEAR THE CENTRE..
PERHAPS INDICATING THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM'S EYE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAND WERE REPORTED AT CAPE RACE WHERE GUSTS 
REACHED 96 KMH WITH HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 KM/H. A PEAK WIND 
OF 76 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT A PRIVATE WEATHER STATION ON CAPE PINE 
ABOUT 30 KM WEST OF CAPE RACE. BECAUSE OF THE COMPACT CIRCULATION OF
THE STORM AND ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION..WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER OVER 
MOST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST AT ST. JOHN'S 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 54 KM/H. PEAK WINDS FROM AN OFFSHORE
BUOY SOUTH OF THE STORM REACHED 56 KNOTS OR 104 KM/H.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WERE GENERALLY LESS 
THAN 25 MM DUE TO ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND DIMINISHING AMOUNT OF 
MOISTURE. THE HIGHEST MEASURED RAINFALL WAS 26 MM AT CAPE RACE. 19 MM 
WAS MEASURED AT THE CAPE PINE LOCATION AND ONLY 10 MM IN THE ST.
JOHN'S AREA.

FORECASTING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE STORM WAS VERY CHALLENGING..AS 
ARE MOST TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES MOVING INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN 
THAT ISAAC WAS STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM VERY NEAR THE AVALON
PENINSULA..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR 
HIGH WINDS. IF THE STORM HAD TRACKED ONLY 50 TO 100 KM FARTHER NORTH 
THE ST JOHN'S AREA WOULD HAVE EXPERIENCED MUCH STRONGER WINDS. ISAAC
ALSO MOVED FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED..THUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
WERE LESS THAN FORECAST.

END FOGARTY