Focus: The purpose of the session was to increase the level of awareness regarding major demographic changes and the implications and opportunities that these trends represent for policy makers and for society as a whole.

Partner: University of New Brunswick (UNB)

Location: Fredericton, New Brunswick

Date: January 19, 1996.

Co-Chairs: Dr. Robin Armstrong, President of UNB, and Dr. Frank Wilson, Vice-President (Research), UNB.

Comments:

The subject of demographics was chosen for this session as a result of recent work by prominent academics which had received wide attention and which suggested that demographic trends may provide insight into currently important social policy and economic development issues. Dr. David Foot of the University of Toronto, a leading expert on demographics, was engaged to provide the lead presentation for this event.

The level of representation in attendance was impressive with over 40 participants. It is noteworthy that the Province of New Brunswick has formed a Cabinet-level committee to provide advice to the government on its social policy planning, based upon specific demographics research. The provincial Minister of Health, Dr. Russ King, gave a luncheon presentation on the N. B. demographics project, and the session was attended by senior public servants and MLAs involved in the province's House committee. This roundtable session was designed for information sharing purposes rather than to address a specific policy challenge. It benefited from the broad nature of Dr. Foot's presentation and the ensuing discussions.

Issues Summary:

• Dr. Foot's initial presentation outlined the structure of the demographic situation internationally, nationally and across the Atlantic provinces, and explained the assumptions and mechanics of demographic forecasting.

• The predominant aspect of demographics which is of current interest is the post-war population pattern, including the "baby boom" and its "echo". These bulges in the population structure affect a number of important developments.

• Dr. Foot offered his insights on how demographic factors underlie, and in his view largely explain, such current phenomena as the debt and deficits, the transition from a manufacturing/goods based economy to a service based one, and current changes in patterns of work and employment.

• The unique aspect of Dr. Foot's presentation was the relating of changing demographic patterns to such current issues as: market changes, business opportunities, labour force structure and problems including unemployment, shifts in the economic structure and the provision of services by government in a range of fields.

• Discussion groups at the roundtable focussed on specific areas which may be affected by demographics including: tourism, housing, education, migration, the urban/rural pattern, labour force and employment issues, infrastructure, and changes in the structure of business and job markets.