Evaluation of the National Child Benefit Initiative: Synthesis Report - February 2005

Project Title

Impact Assessment of the National Child Benefit (NCB) on Social Assistance (SA) Caseloads in Saskatchewan (Evaluation Branch of HRDC)

Key Findings

• Monthly SA caseload declined for all recipient types by a cumulative 8 percent between 1998 and 2001.
• Caseload distribution among categories of recipients was stable until the introduction of the NCB. Thereafter the share of families with children on SA declined.
• The NCB Initiative is associated with a cumulative monthly caseload reduction for families with children of approximately 6 percent (an estimated 655 cases) between the second quarter of 1999 and the end of the first quarter of 2000.

Methodology

• The study used monthly, quarterly and annual observations (time series analysis) of SAR caseload files to identify changes in family types between 1990 and 2000.
• Multiple regression analysis controlled for other key contributing factors (e.g., labour market conditions and other changes in provincial programming).
• Dataset excluded SA recipients less likely to be able to work (e.g., persons with disabilities) as they were less likely to be affected by the NCB.

Strengths

• Methodology and findings validated by independent external peer review.
• Pre-post methodology allows for assessment of trends in social assistance caseload.
• Empirical findings corroborate the programs design analyses - re: incentives to leave SA.

Limitations

• Findings to be interpreted with some caution because only a relatively short time had elapsed since the NCB was introduced.
• Regression analysis is unable to isolate the impacts of individual components within the NCB Initiative (e.g., direct cash transfers, health benefits, childcare) and controls for only the unemployment rate and seasonal caseload effects.

Project Title

Impact Assessment of the National Child Benefit (NCB) on Social Assistance (SA) Caseloads in Alberta (Evaluation Branch of HRDC)

Key Findings

• Monthly SA caseload declined for all recipient types a cumulative 18 percent between 1998 and 2001.
• Caseload distribution among categories of recipients was stable until the introduction of the NCB. Thereafter the share of families with children on SA declined.
• The NCB initiative is associated with a cumulative monthly caseload reduction for families with children of approximately 10 percent (an estimated 1,606 cases) between the second quarter of 1999 and the end of the first quarter of 2000.

Methodology

• The study used monthly, quarterly and annual observations (time series analysis) from social assistance caseload files to identify changes in family types between 1991 and 2002.
• Multiple regression analysis controlled for other key contributing factors (e.g., labour market conditions and other changes in provincial programming).
• Unlike in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland SA recipients less likely to be able to work were not excluded from the analysis of SA caseload in Alberta.

Strengths

• Methodology and findings validated by independent external peer review.
• Pre-post methodology allows for assessment of trends in social assistance caseload.
• Empirical findings corroborate the programs design analyses: re: incentives to leave SA.

Limitations

• Findings to be interpreted with some caution because:
  • Only a relatively short time had elapsed since the NCB was introduced;
  • Overlap with Alberta's 1993 welfare reform may have reduced the precision of estimates.
• Regression analysis is unable to isolate the impacts of the individual components of the NCB Initiative (e.g., direct cash transfers, health benefits, childcare) and controls for only the monthly unemployment rate and seasonal caseload effects.

Project Title

Impact Assessment of the National Child Benefit (NCB) on Social Assistance (SA) Caseloads in Newfoundland (Evaluation Branch of HRDC)

Key Findings

• Monthly SA caseload declined for all recipient types by a cumulative 10 percent between 1998 and 2001.
• The NCB Initiative is associated with a cumulative monthly caseload reduction for families with children of approximately 3 percent (an estimated 355 cases) between the second quarter of 1999 and the end of the first quarter of 2000.
• The program's impact on single parents with children was not statistically significant.
• The impact of the NCB in Newfoundland is smaller than the estimates arrived at for Saskatchewan and Alberta. The report attributes this reduction in impact to the fact that Newfoundland implemented the NCB in a way which did not give the same emphasis to financial incentives to leave SA — compared to the other two provinces.

Methodology

• The study used monthly, quarterly and annual observations (time series analysis) from social assistance caseload files to identify changes in family types between 1993 and 2002.
• Multiple regression analysis controlled for other key contributing factors (e.g., labour market conditions and other changes in provincial programming).
• Dataset excluded SA recipients less likely to work (e.g., persons with disabilities) as they were less likely affected by the NCB.

Strengths

• Methodology and findings validated by independent external peer review.
• The Newfoundland results are consistent with and help to confirm the results of the other two studies done in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Limitations

• Regression analysis is unable to isolate the impacts of individual components of the NCB Initiative (e.g., direct cash transfers, health benefits, childcare).

Project Title

The Impact of the NCB Supplement on the Low-income Status of Canadian Families with Children: the Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) Results
(Centre for the Study of Living Standards)

Key Findings

• Simulations estimated that by 1999 the NCB Supplement had resulted in a reduction in the number of families with children living below the low-income cut-off as well as a reduction in the low-income gap for families with children, using post-tax low-income cut-off (LICO).
• Based on post-tax LICO, the poverty rate fell 4.6 percent and the poverty gap declined by 8.7 percent between 1996 and 1999 as a result of the NCB Supplement.
• The estimated impact of the NCB Supplement on both the low-income rate and the low-income gap appear to be somewhat greater for two parent families than for single-parent families.

Methodology

• This report presents the results of simulations run by Statistics Canada with the Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) on different child benefit rules, isolating their impact, including the introduction of the NCB Supplement, on low-income or poverty rates and gaps.
• A total of 28 scenarios were run, 14 based on the 1997 population and 14 based on the projected 2004 population.

Strengths

• Simulations are able to isolate the impacts of various features of the NCB Supplement from the CCTB (e.g., social assistance recovery and cash reinvestment programs) on the low-income rate.
• Simulations provide important information concerning the impact of the NCB Supplement on reducing the depth and breadth of low-income conditions.

Limitations

• Some scenarios do not include non-cash benefits of provincial family support program financed in part by the claw back, resulting in lower estimates of poverty reduction.
• The simulations do not include the impact of behavioural labour market changes due to the NCB Supplement (changes in labour market behaviour are — addressed by Documents 8 and 9).
• The simulations do not estimate the actual impact of the NCB on low income, but only what would occur if just the hypothesized changes occurred, and there were no changes in the labour market behaviour of families as a result of assistance received.

Project Title

The National Child Benefit Impact on Income levels of Canadian Families with Children: HRDC Simulation Results (Social Policy Directorate of HRDC)

Key Findings

• In 2000, the NCB Initiative was assessed as being responsible for preventing and estimated 22,900 families with 55,000 children from being considered as living in low-income.
• There was a 5.1 percent reduction in the number of families with children living in low-income conditions.
• The NCB Initiative is found to have a positive impact in reducing the depth of low-income by 9.6 percent for all families. The impact was higher for two parent families where the depth of low-income was reduced by 11.0 percent.

Methodology

• This study estimates the difference between the two different federal/provincial/territorial child benefit structures: the actual structure with the NCB Initiative and a simulated structure without the NCB Initiative.
• Results are based on data from the 2000 Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID). All estimates are reported on the post-tax Low-Income Cut-Off (LICO).

Strengths

• This methodology is able to isolate the impact of the income benefits of the NCB Initiative on: the change in the number and incidence of children and families living in low-income and the extent of the low-income gap while keeping other socio-economic variables such as the level of employment or earnings unchanged.
• Methodology and findings validated by independent external peer review.
• Simulations provide important information concerning the impact of the NCBS on reducing the depth and breadth of low-income conditions.

Limitations

• The simulations do not include changes in the economic behaviour of low-income families with children which may have been caused by the NCBS.
• The simulations do not include the impact of behavioral labour market changes due to the NCBS (Changes in labour market behaviour were addressed by Documents 8 and 9).
• The simulations do not estimate the actual impact of the NCB on low income, but only what would occur if just the hypothesized changes occurred, and there were no changes in the labour market behaviour of families as a result of assistance received.

Project Title

Module One: Technical Report #1
Contextual Examination

Key Findings

• Canada is a leader among OECD countries as an innovator in using the tax system to deliver income support programs.
• Use of the federal tax system to deliver the NCB Initiative is based on increased cooperation among orders of government. Expert opinion identified the NCB Federal/Provincial/Territorial Working Group as the model for the Social Union Framework Agreement and its underlying priorities.
• Comparative analysis indicates that countries such as Canada and the U.S.A. that rely on targeted benefits are not as successful in reducing and preventing poverty as those countries that deliver universal child benefits.
• The flexibility of the provincial/territorial reinvestment arrangements allows Provinces and Territories to tailor interventions to meet particular needs. However, few of the reinvestments have been evaluated.

Methodology

• Focused review of technical literature and policy documents pertaining to child benefits, child poverty, minimum wage theory, tax-based poverty measures, employment-based approaches to poverty reduction, welfare reform, the Social Union Framework Agreement.
• Selected interviews with academics and experts.
• Examination of approaches used in other countries to address child poverty and parental labour market participation.

Strengths

• Evidence provides background information on the importance of cooperation between different orders of government and the inherent flexibility of the NCB.
• Provides a review of approaches other jurisdictions have used to address child poverty and their effectiveness.

Limitations

• In keeping with a background document the review is limited in scope.
• Does not provide evidence of the effectiveness of NCB-type programs.

Project Title

Module One: Technical Report #2
Net Impact Analysis:
Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) 2000

Key Findings

• Estimated net impacts (2000) of the NCB Initiative for families with children with an income under $32,000 (as of 1996):
  • 12 percent fewer families with children falling into low-income (post-tax LICO);
  • Reduction in the low-income gap by $631 (post-tax LICO);
  • 7.1 more weeks worked but a decline of $3,083 in annual earnings.

Methodology

• Statistical matching (propensity scoring) used to create the reference groups within the SLID data set.
• Difference-in-difference estimators of net impact.
• SLID panel data compares pre-post NCB (2000 vs. 1996) changes in work effort and in net income of the program group families with that of the reference group.

Strengths

• SLID is a panel dataset that supports the creation of a baseline prior to the NCB's inception.
• Attempts to measure the full impact of the initiative, including the behavioural responses of the population.
• The use of propensity score matching and difference-in-difference estimators controls for measured and fixed unobserved differences between the program and reference groups.
• Evidence provides corroboration of the Simulations (Document 4) and time series analyses (Documents 1-3) concerning the program's impact on the depth of poverty, labour force attachment and reduced dependence on social assistance.

Limitations

• The reference group consisted of single persons and families without any children under 18. It is not clear that differences in response due to the actual presence of children were controlled for by the study.
• Peer reviews on the methodology suggested problems with the suitability of comparison groups.
• Due to small sample sizes, it was not possible to match on local labour markets.
• The program group consisted of those who received the CCTB rather than just the NCB Supplement.
• The analysis could not isolate the impacts of the individual components of the NCB initiative.

Project Title

Module One Technical Report #3
Client Survey

Key Findings

• The NCB Initiative is designed to ensure that clients are better-off working. However, survey findings indicate that many factors influence a parent's decision to work full-time. The most frequently cited are the availability and costs of childcare, family responsibilities, wanting to parent, and disability/health issues. This is important feedback for policy makers.
• The vast majority of Survey respondents indicated that the NCB Initiative has made their families and children better off.
• The NCB Supplement was also assessed as providing low-income families with a measure of flexibility to prioritize their own expenditures.
• Survey respondents indicated that they had few, if any problems with the way the NCB initiative was delivered.

Methodology

• Sample selection based on receipt of NCB Supplement in 1999 or 2000.
• The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), managed all aspects of sampling and controlled access to all data.
• Clients had option to consent to have their T1 tax information linked with their survey responses.
• Survey conducted by telephone, field operations began in early 2002, with 5,198 completed interviews.

Strengths

• High (84 percent) response rate by those who consented to be interviewed.
• Independent assessment by a survey methodologist confirmed that the sampling by CRA was done properly and the actual surveying was done well.
• Evidence provides corroboration of the impact of the NCB Supplement on child poverty and labour force attachment.

Limitations

• Low response rate (5.4 percent) to the invitation to participate in the survey raises questions about non-response bias and generalizability of the results.
• Final sample is more likely to contain families with net incomes and gross earnings above $20,000 (43% vs. 35%; and 35% vs. 27%, respectively).

Project Title

Module One: Technical Report # 4
Assessment of the Net Impact of the NCB Supplement on Labour Force Attachment of Parents

Key Findings

• Receipt of the NCB Supplement in 2000 for those with any social assistance income was associated with no reduction in hours NCB Supplement is having a negative effect on work effort for families not receiving social assistance. For those not on social assistance in 2000, receipt of NCB Supplement was associated with an annual decline of between 10 to 16 hours for every $100 of NCB Supplement, or between 153 and 245 hours for the average NCB Supplement benefit of $1,532.
• The analysis also confirmed that those with low levels of education, who are younger, have a disability or are married work fewer hours than their counterparts.

Methodology

• Cross-sectional dataset combined data collected by the NCB Supplement client survey with data collected on T1 tax forms (3,321 respondents consented to linking T1 with their survey responses).
• The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), managed all aspects of sampling and controlled access to all data.
• Regression analysis used to estimate the net impact of NCB Supplement on labour force attachment of parents.

Strengths

• Results are consistent with findings from the technical literature regarding potential negative effects of income support measures on work effort among the working poor.
• NCB Supplement client survey linked to personal income taxation data.
• Data set allows matching NCB Supplement client survey, respondent incomes, and labour market attachment.
• Two stage least squares regression analysis was used to remove any simultaneity bias.
• The analysis isolates the unique effect of the NCB Supplement (net of any recovery from SA recipients) on labour supply.

Limitations

• Low response rate (3 percent) (Future analysis using CRA tax data, EI data and SA data may provide more definitive results).
• Results may not be representative due to non-response bias in the NCB Supplement participant survey.
• Results are based on clientele self-assessment of employment and may be influenced by recall issues.
• Cross-sectional data set permits inferences only about the long-term results of the NCB.

Project Title

Module One: Technical Report # 6
Management Survey and Interviews

Key Findings

• Nearly all provincial and territorial managers expressed the opinion that the NCB's principles and objectives are relevant and compatible with provincial/territorial programming, and saw no evidence of overlaps between NCB-related initiatives and provincial programming.
• The vast majority of provincial and territorial managers surveyed believed that the NCB Supplement was effective in reducing the depth of child poverty; there was much less support expressed for its effectiveness in reducing the incidence of poverty.
• Approximately half of provincial and territorial managers were of the opinion that the NCB Supplement was effective in encouraging parents to leave SA, but most felt that other factors (e.g., minimum wage, social assistance policy) have a greater impact than the NCB on the labour force attachment of parents.

Methodology

• The mail survey targeted provincial and territorial senior and program managers identified by the NCB Evaluation Working Group.
• The survey was supplemented by key informant interviews with federal, provincial and territorial senior managers.

Strengths

• Provides an additional line of evidence corroborating a majority of the statistical findings.

Limitations

• The study did not clearly identify informants' expertise or experience with the NCB.
• Limited response by officials responsible for the program, raising questions about selection bias and objectivity.

Project Title

Module One: Technical Report # 7
Focus Groups

Key Findings

• Focus group participants endorsed both the CCTB and the NCB Initiative as useful programs.
• The majority of participants indicated that the CCTB goes towards their general household budget (food, clothing, shelter, daycare, car payments) while some use the CCTB for an education fund.
• The rationale behind benefits puzzled many participants. For example, they could not understand why benefits are reduced when children turn seven, as costs rise when children go to school.
• Few participants could separate the NCB Supplement from the base benefit, and some confused the CCTB and NCB Supplement with other provincial benefits.
• The work/parenting decision is a very difficult one for participants. Some are prepared to make the financial sacrifices to remain home and parent while others accept modest financial benefits that come with high child care costs and low wages.

Methodology

• 20 focus groups were conducted with a total of 174 participants from 19 sites across Canada.
• Focus groups were conducted with people on and not on social assistance.

Strengths

• Focus group results provide qualitative evidence of the NCB's impact on families with children and complement the NCB Supplement client survey.
• The analysis provides insights concerning issues of workforce attachment, in particular, the pressures faced in balancing the need for income security with a desire to parent.

Limitations

• Results cannot be generalized to the entire NCB Supplement client population.
• Participant opinions can evolve and be influenced by others during group discussions.
• Participants were drawn from respondents to the Client Survey (see limitations respecting this survey, Document 8, Technical Report #3).

Project Title

Module One: Technical Report # 9
An NCB Cost-Effectiveness Framework

Key Findings

• No definitive conclusions on NCB cost-effectiveness could be drawn from the current research because of inadequate data. The report, however, did elaborate a framework and research program to address cost-effectiveness and identified the following issues:
  • Analysis is dependent on the development of a common measurement framework and methodology across jurisdictions to measure the net impacts of the NCB Supplement.
  • Accurate, detailed, comparable and segregated baseline data to identify and evaluate costs and outcomes are a prerequisite to conducting cost-effectiveness analysis.
  • Harmonization of expenditures and the reduction of overlap and duplication with respect to investments and reinvestments requires more detailed reporting by all orders of government.
• The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) delivery system is cost-effective compared to the theoretical cost of developing independent provincial and territorial administrative systems
  • The fact that most jurisdictions have adopted the CRA strongly suggests it offers important efficiencies in delivering a cash benefit.

Methodology

• Developed a general framework that classified a range of questions associated with cost-effectiveness within a partial and general equilibrium context.
• Comparative analysis of CRA and provincial/territorial delivery of cash benefits.
• Specified a methodology to compare NCB to similar or existing programs, proposing a counterfactual within a partial equilibrium framework.

Strengths

• Articulates the key issues with respect to measuring cost-effectiveness.
• Framework provides opportunities to assess harmonization efforts of the NCB initiative.

Limitations

• Inadequate data to determine the costs of the federal tax administered programs compared to what the costs would be if the provinces and territories administered the programs.
• Proposed framework for future cost-effectiveness analysis is expensive; requiring new approaches to financial management (i.e., activity based costing) as well as common data collection methods across all orders of government.

Project Title

Module Two: Provincial and Territorial Reinvestment Case Studies Module
Summary

Key Findings

• Arrangements put in place to encourage reinvestment of NCB-induced savings in social assistance budgets have created potential new opportunities for policy development and social programming.
• For example, most of the 16 Child Care/Day Care programs reported by provinces and territories were implemented following the introduction of the NCB in 1998.
• In addition, partnerships between provinces/territories and the Canada Revenue Agency to deliver reinvestment of savings in the form of additional income supplement measures points to the advantages of harmonization producing cost-effective strategies.
• NCB-supported reinvestment programs undertaken by provincial/territorial governments do not have adequate data provisions to ensure the basic information necessary for performance measurement purposes (e.g., take-up rates; participant characteristics).
• Further, in general, statistics produced on provincial/territorial reinvestments following the introduction of NCB would have benefited from the development of prior baseline investment data in this area (i.e., prior to the NCB) — so as to identify the incremental effects on investments as a result of the initiative.

Methodology

• Literature review focused on two of five clusters of reinvestment programs: the Supplementary Health Benefit and the Child Benefit/Earned Income Supplement (CB/EIS).
• Case studies of CB/EIS and SHB reinvestment programs were based on an initial telephone survey, further interviews by phone, on-site visits, a document review and an email survey.

Strengths

• Identifies key data issues and challenges related to the NCB Initiative with a focus on reinvestments.
• Evidence provides some corroboration regarding the impact of the reinvestment initiatives on improved labour force attachment and breaking down the welfare wall.

Limitations

• Lack of comprehensive data from the provinces and territories on NCB reinvestment programs limits the analysis.
• Findings based on managers' personal assessment and opinion.
• Limited evidence to determine the impacts and effects of reinvestment programs.

Project Title

Module Two: Provincial and Territorial Reinvestment
Case Studies Literature Review

Key Findings

• Cross-country comparison with other federal systems found:
  • In Australia and the U.S.A., as well as in Canada, the most substantial phase-out of benefits is at a US $30,000 cut-off, with high marginal implicit taxes as families approach this cut-off point;
  • Children in low-income families in the U.S.A. with little or no labour market attachment, do not have access to the benefits that they would receive in Canada or Australia.
• Reinvestment benefits received by low-income families mark an important step in reducing the 'welfare wall' and creating work incentives.
• In-kind transfers (linked with services like health or day care) may be more effective in achieving NCB objectives than providing direct cash transfers to parents.
• No empirical analysis on the social impact of reinvestment programs on work effort for social assistance recipients within Canada.

Methodology

• This literature review focused on the operation of the NCB and two of the reinvestment initiatives: the Child Benefit and Earned Income Supplement and Supplementary Health Benefits.

Strengths

• Historical overview of income supports for families with children.
• Overview of the NCB, its rationale and assumptions, theoretical impacts and trade-offs.
• Evidence provides corroboration regarding the impact of the reinvestment initiatives on improved labour force attachment and breaking down the welfare wall.

Limitations

• The comparison with similar programs in other jurisdictions is limited to Australia, the U.S.A. and the U.K. and would have benefited from more cross country details.

Project Title

Module Two: Provincial and Territorial Reinvestment Case Studies Child Benefit / Earned Income Supplement

Key Findings

• Evidence of cooperation and harmonization in program delivery with the most frequent partnership involving the use of Canada Revenue Agency to deliver the Child Benefit-Earned Income Supplement programs on behalf of Provincial and Territorial governments.
• Improved information gathering and data sharing with respect to program participants and take-up rates are required for performance measurement.

Methodology

• Nine Child Benefit/Earned Income Supplement case studies operating in seven Provinces and Territories were used to examine how the programs work, lessons learned and best practices.
• The studies were analyzed to assess similarities and differences among initiatives and the results were combined with information from the literature review and email survey to address evaluation issues.

Strengths

• Findings help to identify issues, challenges and solutions related to the NCB reinvestments.
• Evidence provides corroboration regarding harmonization of program delivery through reinvestments.

Limitations

• Only very limited quantitative data in case studies to measure program impacts.
• Aggregate data on impacts are limited; potential impacts are inferred from the design and objectives of each of the reinvestment programs.

Project Title

Module Two: Provincial and Territorial Reinvestment Case Studies Supplementary Health Benefits (SHB)

Key Findings

• SHB programs reduce work disincentives by providing health benefits to low-income working parents that were previously available only to social assistance recipients.
• Extending the SHB programs to NCB recipients other than social assistance recipients is an innovative step and reflects a key program focus on providing/retaining work incentives.
• Inadequate monitoring data currently in place; direct client-based survey data and other program data are required for performance measurement purposes.
• Evidence of considerable cooperation and harmonization, both between orders of government and across provincial health programs. Moreover the NCB and provincial and territorial programs have established integrated funding arrangements.

Methodology

• Five case studies on Supplementary Health Benefits programs were developed on the basis of a literature review, surveys, on-site visits and key informant interviews.
• The studies attempted to address evaluation issues such as rationale and relevance, design/approach, implementation and delivery, and intended and unintended impacts.

Strengths

• Findings help to identify the issues, challenges and solutions related to the NCB Initiative.
• Evidence provides corroboration regarding improved labour force attachment and harmonization of program delivery through reinvestments.

Limitations

• Minimal quantitative data on total eligible low-income clients and to measure program impacts.
• Aggregate data on impacts limited; potential positive impacts are inferred from the design and objectives of each of the reinvestment programs.

Project Title

Module Two: Provincial and Territorial Reinvestment Case Studies: "What Works"

Key Findings

• Survey data available from the Alberta Child Health Benefit (ACHB) indicate clients have positive reactions to the program: 92 percent of those surveyed felt that the ACHB provided their children with the services they needed most, and 93 percent felt that it assisted their families financially (ACHB provides benefits to children in low-income families).
• The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) delivery system was found to be an efficient, effective way to deliver the NCB and related programs, but there is a trade-off between using it to determine eligibility and being able to respond quickly to the changing needs of families (one year lag due to eligibility being determined through previous year's tax return).
• The Saskatchewan Employment Supplement Call Centre has simplified administrative processes to provide services more efficiently and to become more responsive to client needs (e.g., services provided in Cree, Dene).

Methodology

• Three "What Works" case studies were developed: The Alberta Child Health Benefit (ACHB); the Saskatchewan Employment Supplement Call Centre; and the Canada Revenue Agency Administration of the NCB.
• The studies were created using diagnostic information from an e-mail survey, initial telephone surveys, interviews with program staff, partners and key stakeholders, a literature review and document/data reviews.

Strengths

• Findings help to identify the issues, challenges and solutions related to the NCB Initiative.
• Evidence provides corroboration of positive work incentives and harmonization of program delivery through reinvestments.

Limitations

• Only very limited quantitative data on low-income eligible clients and to measure program impacts.
• Aggregate data on impacts limited; potential positive impacts are inferred from the design and objectives of each of the reinvestment programs.

Project Title

Module Three: Study # 1
The Family Bonus and the Duration of Spells on Social Assistance in British Columbia

Key Findings

• Policy changes to the social assistance program just before and after the introduction of the BC Family Bonus in July 1996 likely affected the length of time people remained on assistance.
• The BC Family Bonus improved the gap in income between minimum wage employment and social assistance, particularly for single parents and couples with two or more children.
• The change in the total value of the gap led to increase in the rate of leaving assistance for both single parents and couples with children of 3.1 and 4.3 percent, respectively.
• However, the change in the gap due to the introduction of the BC Family Bonus did not have a significant effect on the rate of leaving assistance.

Methodology

• Based on monthly records for all families receiving regular assistance or temporary disability benefits between February 1991 and March 2002.
• For each month, each family's social assistance budget was compared to what it would have received if employed full time at the prevailing minimum wage rate.
• The Cox proportional hazard regression method was used to assess the effect of the income gap, independent of the effect of other factors.

Strengths

• Based on micro-level data.
• Controls for the state of the economy and characteristics of the individual family.
• Covers an 11 year period (5 years pre-and 6 years post-Family Bonus).

Limitations

• Common to other survival analyses of monthly social assistance caseload data, the models account for a small proportion of the variance (2 percent).

Project Title

Module Three: Study # 2
The National Child Benefit Survival Analysis Study for Manitoba

Key Findings

• The introduction of the NCB and its recovery from families on assistance improved the gap in income between minimum wage employment and social assistance for single parents.
• The change in the total value of the gap led to increase in the rate of leaving assistance by single parents 20 percent.
• The change in the gap due to the recovery of the NCB Supplement led to a 9 percent increase in the rate of leaving assistance.

Methodology

• Monthly records for single parent families (without a disability) receiving regular assistance were obtained from April 1995 to September 2001.
• For each month, each family's social assistance budget was compared to what it would have received if employed full time at the prevailing minimum wage rate.
• The Cox proportional hazard regression method was used to assess the effect of the income gap, independent of the effect of parent's age.

Strengths

• Based on micro-level data.
• Controls for the state of the economy and characteristics of the individual family.

Limitations

• Common to other survival analyses of monthly social assistance caseload data, the regression models account for a small proportion of the variance (2 percent).
• Covers only a 3 year pre- and post- NCB and looks only a single parent families with children.

Project Title

Module Three: Study #3
The NCB and the Duration of Spells on Social Assistance in Saskatchewan

Key Findings

• The replacement of the child portion of SA benefits with the combined NCB Supplement and Saskatchewan Child Benefit to all low income families improved the gap in income between minimum wage employment and social assistance, particularly for single parents and couples with two or more children.
• The change in the total value of the gap led to an increase in the rate of leaving assistance of 3 percent for single parents. It had no effect on the exit rate for couples with children.
• The change in the gap due to the introduction of the NCB did not have a significant effect on the rate of leaving assistance for either single parents or couples with children.

Methodology

• Monthly records for all families receiving social assistance were obtained from April 1995 to December 2001. The disabled and unemployable were dropped as were persons under 18 or over 64 years of age.
• For each month, each family's social assistance budget was compared to what it would have received if employed full time at the prevailing minimum wage rate.
• The Cox proportional hazard regression method was used to assess the effect of the income gap, independent of the effect of other factors.

Strengths

• Based on micro-level data.
• Controls for the state of the economy and characteristics of the individual family.

Limitations

• Covers only a 3 year period pre-and post- the NCB.
• Common to other survival analyses of monthly social assistance caseload data, the models account for a small proportion of the variance (2 percent).

Project Title

Module Three: The National Child Benefit and Income from Employment and Social Assistance by Province and Territory, 1995-2001

Key Findings

• Study confirms the effect of program design in improving the incomes of social assistance recipients with children to enter the labour market.
• The shift in support measures for working poor families was designed to ensure that these families were better-off working than being on social assistance. During the study period, annual earnings increased by an average of $1,400 from a full-time job at the minimum wage compared with social assistance.
• The NCB Initiative was the main factor contributing to increases in disposable family income, followed by increases to the minimum wage (impacts varied by province and by family type).

Methodology

• This study undertakes program design analysis and examines the effect of the NCB on the disposable incomes of low-income families in two situations: income from minimum wage employment versus income from social assistance.
• The analysis calculates the dollar gap in annual disposable incomes between full-time minimum wage employment and social assistance for each of the years from 1995 to 2001, and determines the impact of the introduction of the NCB Supplement on that gap.

Strengths

• Provided an opportunity to undertake an in-depth examination of the impacts of income transfers, payroll and income taxes, and income tax credits and the minimum wage on the disposable incomes of NCB beneficiaries.
• Evidence provides corroboration regarding the effects of the program in breaking down the welfare wall — by demonstrating strong employment incentives.
• Documents clearly the nature and extent of program changes in the benefits families received for four family types across all provinces and territories (except Quebec and Nunavut).

Limitations

• Analysis is limited to a theoretical assessment of the effects of program design provisions in varied circumstances.