3. The Demographic Trends in the Model
The three regions of the model are East, the Center and the West. East is composed of the four Atlantic regions plus Quebec. The Center is in fact Ontario whereas the West is composed of all the other Canadian provinces.
The age-group composition of the population is rather similar in 1999 as the old-age dependency ratio is around 21 percent in all three regions. As reported in Figure 1, the old-age dependency ratio, defined as the number of individuals 65+ divided by those aged between 15-64, is expected to rise dramatically in the three regions. However, the population aging will be more severe in the East than in the other two regions. The old-age dependency ratio takes a upward trend with respect to the other two regions as early as 2007. In 2047, the ratio is above 50 percent in the East region whereas its level is around 45 percent in the Center and West regions. Notice that the aging process is faster in the West region than in the Center region as the two old-age dependency ratio curves intersect around the year 2015 in Figure 1.
Although increased longevity, emigration, and persistent low birth rates are contributing factors, it is recognized that the main reason behind the rise in the old-age dependency ratio is the baby-boom baby-bust event. The model does neither contain migration nor increased life expectancy. The regional rise in the old-age dependency ratio is thus captured by the change in the birth rate (of the 18 years-old age-group) only. Figure 2 shows the old-age dependency ratio curves of the three regions as projected by Human Resources and Development Canada (HRDC) and by the model. One can see that for each of the three regions, the old-age dependency ratios generated by the model fits relatively well the HRDC projections.
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