Applied Research Bulletin - Volume 4, Number 1 (Winter-Spring 1998) - May 1998

Job Market Positive for Most Generation X Graduates

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Applied Research Bulletin

Winter/Spring 1998Vol. 4 No. 1

Postsecondary students who graduated in 1990-Generation X-are not doing as poorly in the job market as commonly thought. In fact, they are doing as well five years after graduation as earlier graduates. This encouraging news is found in a recent survey conducted by Statistics Canada in partnership with Human Resources Development Canada.

The 1995 Follow-up Survey of 1990 Graduates is based on interviews with 31,000 of the same 1990 graduates who had participated in the National Graduates Survey three years earlier. The results were compared not only with the 1992 findings but also with surveys of 1982 and 1986 graduates conducted five years after their graduation.

Most 1990 graduates had jobs in 1995

The number of 1990 graduates with full-time or part-time jobs increased from 1992 to 1995. In 1992, despite the recession, around three-quarters had made a successful transition to full-time work. For the remaining graduates, the transition took place more slowly as economic conditions improved-and by 1995 about half of the graduates who were unemployed in 1992 had found jobs.

More specifically, about four out of five college and university graduates were employed full-time in 1995, with less than ten percent working in jobs unrelated to their education. More than two-thirds of trade/vocational graduates had full-time jobs.

A couple of other indicators also suggest improved labour market conditions for 1990 graduates: the percentage who worked part-time involuntarily decreased, and the proportion in permanent positions increased.

1990 graduates have similar five-year employment patterns to earlier graduates

The proportion of college and university graduates with full-time jobs has remained at a similar level for each of the three follow-up surveys. At the trade/vocational level, full-time employment for 1990 graduates in 1995 is even higher than in the two other surveys.

Source:

HRDC and Statistics Canada, The Class of '90 Revisited, 1997, p. 7

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As far as earnings are concerned, the early 1990s were a time of salary and wage freezes. Between 1992 and 1995, median earnings of 1990 graduates had increased by an overall 11 to 18 percent depending on the level of study. The earnings of 1990 graduates five years after graduation were generally only slightly below earnings levels reported in earlier follow-up surveys.

This relative stability of employment and earnings at the five-year mark implies that, contrary to public perception, the 1990 graduates have experienced similar patterns of settling into the labour market and are employed at a similar rate to earlier graduates five years after graduation.

Further education leads to more jobs and higher earnings

Higher education is clearly important to achieving success in the labour market. The unemployment rate for 1990 university graduates is about half that for trade/vocational graduates both two and five years after graduation. Also, those graduates who obtained additional qualifications had an unemployment rate in 1995 that was about two percentage points less than other graduates.

Interestingly, about half of the 1990 graduates pursued further education after graduation with one-third obtaining additional qualifications. These high numbers support the suggestion that more than one degree may be required to make a successful transition to work, a requirement that may have been emphasized by the economic slowdown.

Source:

HRDC and Statistics Canada, The Class of '90 Revisited, 1997, p. 9

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Higher earnings are also associated with higher levels of education. Graduates from doctorate and master's programs earned around $50,000 five years after graduation, while those with a bachelor's degree averaged slightly under $40,000. Similarly, bachelor's graduates had higher earnings than college and trade/vocational graduates.

Greatest job growth in science, engineering and social sciences

Unemployment rates varied with field of study as well as educational level. Graduates in health professions have consistently had the lowest unemployment rate while those in fine and applied arts have generally faced the highest rates.

Trade/vocational graduates saw the greatest improvement in employment prospects between 1992 and 1995 with a drop in the unemployment rate from 20 percent to 13percent, the lowest it has been in each of the three follow-up surveys. The largest job growth occurred in natural sciences and the primary industries.

At the university level, the unemployment rate in 1995 was almost half the rate it was in 1992, down from 11 percent to six percent. The largest drop in the unemployment rate was in engineering and social sciences followed by education, humanities, and mathematics and physical sciences.

Engineers and health professionals the highest earners but others catching up

The median earnings of graduates increased in all fields of study between 1992 and 1995 and varied by field of study. Engineers and health professionals were among the top earners with college graduates earning about $35,000 and university graduates, $45,000 five years after graduation. Earnings of other university graduates, however, increased at a faster rate so that graduates from the general arts and sciences and commerce fields came within $5,000 of the highest earners in 1995. Fine and applied arts graduates, though the lowest earners amongst university graduates, also showed signs of catching up; they posted the largest increase in earnings (29 percent).

Successful labour market entry for most 1990 graduates

Graduates from the 1990 class have generally made a successful transition to work. Of the minority who experienced difficulty in finding employment in 1992, many were able to take advantage of the improving economic conditions and had found jobs by 1995. Those with higher levels of education had more success in the labour market. At the same time, prospects have improved for those fields with high unemployment rates and traditionally low earnings. Overall, 1990 graduates are becoming well integrated into the labour market.

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