Concentrations of Poverty and Distressed Neighbourhoods in Canada - January 1997
8. Next Steps in a Research Work Plan on Distressed Urban Areas in Canada
- Attempt a trend analysis for distressed neighbourhoods using micro data from the 1986 census. This should indicate the influence of improved economic conditions between 1985 and 1990 (the income years covered by the 1986 and 1991 censuses).32
- Once data from the 1996 census become available, the same kind of trend analysis can be extended to 1995 income data. Given the special severity of the early 1990's recession in Toronto one can speculate that this largest of Canada's CMAs will experience a sharp increase in the number of its distressed and near-distressed neighbourhoods compared to 1991 when it had no distressed neighbourhoods and only a handful of near-distressed neighbourhoods.
- Efforts should be made to collect data in the 2001 census which will enable more direct comparisons with the USA.
- Use should be made of the Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD), compiled from Canada's income tax records, to examine the spatial and social mobility of those residing in and moving into high poverty and distressed neighbourhood tracts and to do regression analysis of determinants of such tracts similar to that done by Jargowsky for the USA.
- Regression analysis of tract determinants could also be performed using Canadian census data which has a much richer set of explanatory variables than the LAD, since the latter is restricted to information provided on the individual income tax form.
- Comparisons could be also made between the characteristics of those census tracts which were extremely poor in 1980 but not in 1990, those which were extremely poor in both years and those which were extremely poor in 1990 but had not been so in 1980.
32 A study of concentrated urban poverty in Canada using the 1986 census has already been done. See Zoltan J. Hajnal, "The Nature of Concentrated Urban Poverty in Canada and the United States", a paper prepared for the June 1994 meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association (mimeo).
