Publications: Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook
2006-11-10 | ISSN 1496-967X
For 2006-07, the production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is estimated to decrease by 7% from 2005-06 to 62.3 million tonnes (Mt), slightly above the 10-year average of 60 Mt, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) “September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops”. Yields are generally estimated to be near trend levels, although below 2005-06. Harvest in western Canada was completed well ahead of normal. A better-than normal grade distribution is estimated for all crops. In western Canada, production decreased by 9% from 2005-06, to 46.3 Mt due to lower yields. In eastern Canada, STC’s production estimate for grains and oilseeds is 16 Mt but this could be revised downward in its December release because excess rain in some provinces has delayed the harvest of corn and soybeans.
Total supply of grains and oilseeds in Canada for 2006-07 is forecast to decrease by 1% from 2005-06, as lower production has more-than offset higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 11%, mainly because of higher wheat exports. Total domestic use is expected to rise, partly due to increased use of corn and wheat for ethanol production. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 27%, with declines expected for all crops except for oats, flaxseed and soybeans. Canadian prices for all crops are expected to be higher than in 2005-06 due to strong prices in the US, except for flaxseed. The Canadian dollar is expected to continue to be strong. The major factors to watch are: the biofuel market, southern hemisphere crop development, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.
Durum
For 2006-07, production decreased by 40% from 2005-06, to 3.5 Mt, the lowest since 2001-02, as a result of lower seeded area and yields. The lower production is partly offset by the record 3.3 Mt carry-in stocks. Supply is down by 19%, but it remains above the 10-year average of 6.5 Mt. Exports are forecast to decline slightly, with lower demand from North Africa and the EU more than offset by increased exports to the US and other markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 42% to1.9 Mt, slightly below the 10-year average. The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for No.1 CWAD 11.5% durum is $202/t I/S VC/SL, $21/t higher than for 2005-06. A discount of $9/t to No.1 CWRS 11.5% is forecast, vs. the 10-year average premium of $36/t.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 2,230 | 2,341 | 1,724 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 2,141 | 2,297 | 1,700 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.32 | 2.58 | 2.08 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 4,962 | 5,915 | 3,538 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 6,752 | 8,402 | 6,805 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 3,218 | 4,269 | 4,100 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 254 | 252 | 255 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 570 | 451 | 360 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,047 | 867 | 805 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 2,487 | 3,266 | 1,900 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 201 | 181 [*] | 202 [**] | |||||||||
Wheat (excluding durum)
Production increased by 9% to 22.8 Mt, due to higher area. Supply is up by 11% to 29.2 Mt, 4 Mt above the 10-year average. The increased production is mainly due to the record 2.7 Mt Ontario crop, with western production up by 5%. Over 90% of the CWRS crop grades No.2 or better, with protein content higher than the previous 2 years. Exports are forecast to increase by 35%, due to improved CWRS quality, record Ontario production and reduced export competition. Domestic use is forecast to rise marginally, with increased industrial use for ethanol production partly offset by lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall below the 10-year average of 5.5 Mt. The CWB PRO was raised on Oct. 26 and is $9 to $47/t above 2005-06, depending on class, grade and protein content. The increases are greatest for lower quality wheat, narrowing the quality and protein premiums for No.1 CWRS, due to the larger and better quality US and Canadian HRS crops.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,169 | 7,753 | 8,953 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 7,722 | 7,530 | 8,850 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.71 | 2.77 | 2.57 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 20,898 | 20,860 | 22,751 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 13 | 23 | 19 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 25,203 | 26,318 | 29,247 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 11,593 | 11,498 | 15,500 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,845 | 2,797 | 3,200 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 4,525 | 4,648 | 4,295 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 8,175 | 8,343 | 8,347 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 5,435 | 6,477 | 5,400 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 190 | 181 [*] | 211 [**] | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 10,399 | 10,094 | 10,677 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 9,862 | 9,826 | 10,550 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.62 | 2.72 | 2.49 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 25,860 | 26,775 | 26,289 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 14 | 23 | 20 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 31,955 | 34,720 | 36,052 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 14,812 | 15,768 | 19,600 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,099 | 3,049 | 3,455 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 5,095 | 5,099 | 4,655 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 9,221 | 9,209 | 9,152 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 7,922 | 9,743 | 7,300 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Barley
Production decreased by 20%, due to lower area and yields, resulting in a 16% decrease in supply. Exports are forecast to fall by 23%, as higher malting barley exports only partly offset lower feed barley exports. Despite lower exports and domestic use, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply. The average off-Board feed barley price is projected to rise by $30/t. The CWB PRO for No. 1 CW feed barley for Pool A in 2006-07 is $170/t, vs. $131/t for 2005-06 Pool B. The PRO for SS2R malting barley is $200/t vs. $171/t for 2005-06, due to lower exportable supplies from major competitors and strong import demand from China and the US.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 4,678 | 4,440 | 3,871 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,050 | 3,889 | 3,408 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.26 | 3.21 | 2.94 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 13,186 | 12,481 | 10,011 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 83 | 46 | 40 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 15,371 | 15,962 | 13,340 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,863 | 2,974 | 2,300 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 268 | 155 | 260 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 9,417 | 9,204 | 8,765 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,073 | 9,700 | 9,440 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 3,435 | 3,289 | 1,600 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 112 | 110 | 130-150 | |||||||||
Corn
Production decreased by 7%, due mainly to lower yields. Domestic supply is down by 4%, as larger carry-in stocks partially offset the lower production. Imports are forecast to rise sharply, as a result of strong demand for ethanol production and less barley supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 30%. The average Chatham price is forecast to rise by 30% from 2005-06, due to higher US prices and lower domestic supplies.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,185 | 1,124 | 1,122 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,072 | 1,096 | 1,100 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 8.24 | 8.63 | 8.02 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 8,837 | 9,461 | 8,823 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,419 | 1,906 | 2,600 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,399 | 13,168 | 13,424 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 229 | 281 | 200 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,395 | 2,220 | 3,000 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 7,961 | 8,654 | 8,809 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,368 | 10,886 | 11,824 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,802 | 2,001 | 1,400 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 100 | 96 | 115-135 | |||||||||
Oats
Production increased by 10%, due mainly to higher area. Supply is up by 5%, as lower carry-in stocks partly offset the higher production. Exports are forecast to rise, as a result of stronger US import demand and less competition from the EU. Feed use and carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures price is forecast to increase by over $15/t from 2005-06. The price premium for oats over corn at CBoT is expected to remain above the 5-year average.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,995 | 1,853 | 2,002 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,315 | 1,326 | 1,498 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.80 | 2.59 | 2.52 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,683 | 3,432 | 3,782 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 26 | 20 | 15 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 4,497 | 4,427 | 4,669 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,675 | 1,877 | 2,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 118 | 80 | 100 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 1,574 | 1,431 | 1,498 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,848 | 1,678 | 1,769 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 974 | 872 | 900 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 131 | 144 | 150-170 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 284 | 226 | 151 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 165 | 148 | 144 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.53 | 2.42 | 2.33 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 418 | 359 | 335 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 462 | 490 | 506 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 122 | 123 | 110 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 48 | 48 | 48 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 145 | 132 | 191 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 210 | 197 | 256 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 130 | 170 | 140 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 68 | 81 | 90-110 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 220 | 209 | 230 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 111 | 109 | 110 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.87 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,362 | 7,852 | 7,375 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,713 | 6,568 | 6,260 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.94 | 3.96 | 3.72 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 26,442 | 26,036 | 23,267 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,528 | 1,973 | 2,656 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 33,046 | 34,350 | 32,254 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,889 | 5,255 | 4,610 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,828 | 2,503 | 3,408 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 19,414 | 19,723 | 19,578 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 22,817 | 22,764 | 23,604 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 6,341 | 6,331 | 4,040 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Canola
Production decreased by 12%, largely because of lower yields. This is partly offset by burdensome carry-in stocks and as a result supply will remain historically high. Exports are forecast to fall marginally from the 2005-06 record to 5.3 Mt. Domestic crush is forecast to increase slightly, following the expansion of some processing plants, with many of the recently announced plants not expected to begin operation until 2007-08. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply, but will remain significantly above the 10-year average. Prices are expected to rise from the low level of 2005-06, supported by higher US soybean prices and increased EU demand for biofuels.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 5,319 | 5,491 | 5,324 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,938 | 5,283 | 5,259 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.57 | 1.83 | 1.61 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 7,728 | 9,660 | 8,485 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 108 | 140 | 150 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 8,444 | 11,386 | 10,654 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,412 | 5,412 | 5,300 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,031 | 3,423 | 3,450 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 375 | 492 | 409 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 3,446 | 3,956 | 3,904 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,587 | 2,019 | 1,450 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 309 | 278 | 315-355 | |||||||||
Flaxseed (excluding solin)
Production decreased by 11% as lower yields more than offset higher harvested area. However, supply is up sharply as the decrease in production was more than offset by large carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to increase slightly, with carry-out stocks forecast to rise to a burdensome 0.5 Mt, vs. the 10-year average of 0.2 Mt. As a result, prices are forecast to decline.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 728 | 842 | 838 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 528 | 803 | 829 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 0.98 | 1.35 | 1.16 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 517 | 1,082 | 959 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 39 | 38 | 20 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 648 | 1,144 | 1,315 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 468 | 537 | 550 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 157 | 271 | 265 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 24 | 336 | 500 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | n/a | 276 | 245-285 | |||||||||
Soybeans
Production increased by 4% due to higher area. Domestic supply is up by 10% due to higher production and carry-in stocks. As a result, imports are expected to fall by 56%. Exports are forecast to rise to a record high on the strength of market development efforts for edible soybeans. Domestic crush is expected to increase. Prices are forecast to rise due to higher US soybean prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,229 | 1,176 | 1,240 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,178 | 1,169 | 1,232 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.59 | 2.70 | 2.67 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,048 | 3,161 | 3,293 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 393 | 339 | 150 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 3,581 | 3,770 | 3,938 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,122 | 1,326 | 1,350 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 1,610 | 1,493 | 1,550 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 457 | 327 | 338 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 2,190 | 1,949 | 1,988 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 270 | 495 | 600 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 248 | 220 | 215-255 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 7,277 | 7,510 | 7,402 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,643 | 7,255 | 7,320 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.74 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 11,293 | 13,904 | 12,737 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 540 | 516 | 320 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,674 | 16,300 | 15,907 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 5,002 | 7,274 | 7,200 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 5,792 | 6,176 | 6,157 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,880 | 2,850 | 2,550 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 26,038 | 25,456 | 25,454 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 23,219 | 23,650 | 24,130 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.58 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 63,596 | 66,715 | 62,293 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 3,082 | 2,512 | 2,996 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 77,675 | 85,370 | 84,213 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 23,702 | 28,297 | 31,410 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 37,830 | 38,149 | 38,913 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 16,143 | 18,924 | 13,890 | |||||||||
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| Date Modified: 2006-12-08 |
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