Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) Final Report: Summary of ResultsStewart J. CohenEnvironment Canada and University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC with contributions from: Randall Barrett, Alberta Environmental Protection, Edmonton AB Table of Contents CONTRIBUTORS TO MBISSponsorEnvironment Canada Other Direct Financial Support Indian and Northern Affairs Canada Contributors In-kind British Columbia Hydro Community Support, Northwest Territories Aklavik
Additional Contributors To Component Studies Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) TABLE OF CONTENTS1. Introduction
2. Research Results
3. Round Table Discussions: Stakeholders' Responses
4. Conclusion1. Introduction1.1 ObjectivesThis is the Final Report of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS), a six-year
collaborative research project which began in 1990 and was supported by the
Canadian government, B.C. Hydro, the University of Victoria, Esso Resources
Ltd. and others. The purpose of the study was to look at the effect which a
change in climate might have on the Mackenzie Basin, its lands, waters, and
the communities that depend on them. The story of the study starts in 1988. At the Changing Atmosphere Conference in Toronto, scientists warned the world's governments about the potential for a change in climate because of the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. At the time, the Canadian government had just completed its first environmental action plan (Green Plan). It included a three-pronged strategy to deal with climate change:
The timeliness of the study was underlined at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
in 1992 when Canada signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It committed
the country to stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by the year
2000. Four years later, in the spring of 1996 the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, which was established by the United Nations, concluded that
recent variations in the climate could not be due to natural forces alone. The
panel said that continued increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases would lead to a warming of the world's climate. The Mackenzie Basin was one of three areas in Canada which scientific community
selected for a detailed study. The other two areas were the Prairies and the
Great Lakes - St. Lawrence River Basin. The Mackenzie Basin was chosen for a case study in order to look at a high
latitude or northern region which had sensitive ecosystems and a large number
of aboriginal people who were still following the traditional ways or lifestyle.
The question was: How would an economy which was based on natural resources
and a Northern culture cope with climate warming? How could they deal with the
changes which were expected to be the most significant in the world? Indeed, there are signs that the climate has warmed up in the Mackenzie Basin.
This area, which includes parts of the Yukon and Northwest Territories as well
as northern British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, has experienced a warming
trend of 1.5øC this century. Scenarios of climate change, based on experimental
results from General Circulation Models of the atmosphere, suggest that this
region could warm up by 4øC to 5øC between the 30-year base-line period of 1951-1980
and the middle of the 21st century. This report is directed to governments, communities, researchers and the private
sector and all those individuals or organizations with an interest in climate
change in this region. The report outlines the potential damage identified during
the course of the study and provides recommendations for future action.
1.2 Four Key FindingsDespite the enormity of the task, the years of research and the hours of sometimes animated discussion, it is possible to distill four points or key findings from the study.
1.3 Next StepsResearchers and stakeholders made a number of recommendations including:
1.4 Notes About the StudyOne of the more interesting aspects of the study was that scientists from many
disciplines and stakeholders from the region worked on it together. Not surprisingly
there were problems. When the study began in 1990, it was difficult to get regional
governments, aboriginal communities and private sector industries actively involved.
But their interest and participation increased over the next few years. In addition, there were technical problems such as incompatible data bases.
And there were logistical problems. Canada is a large country and getting people
together was a challenge. This type of collaboration required considerable effort
and good will to succeed. But on the whole, this unique approach to an integrated
assessment worked. During the study, scientists and stakeholders freely shared information across
cultures and disciplines and learned much from each other. The hope is that
this sharing will continue long after the report is published and that this
model will prove useful for similar studies in other areas of the world. For their part, scientists took information about the temperature and precipitation
from models of future climate change and used this data to construct climate
scenarios for other models such as those dealing with ground temperatures, the
rate of growth in forests and the water levels in rivers and lakes. The point
was to discover what would happen to waterways, permafrost and animal and fish
habitats as well as to communities, industries and traditional lifestyles if
the climate changes. The stakeholders, who included representatives from aboriginal organizations,
colleges, institutes, industries and all levels of government, wrestled with
questions such as: What if the world becomes warmer because of increasing concentrations
of greenhouse gases? What would the regional effects of warming be? What could
happen that might be considered dangerous? Would it make a difference to our
future, and that of our children? How could people living in the regions and
countries prepare for or avoid these changes? These questions formed the basis of many of the discussions during the study.
The "what if?" question posed by science provided the scenario of
the effects of climate change. The stakeholders' response to the "so what"
question reflected their views of the significance of the scenario to their
daily lives. The stakeholders' replies to the "what should be done?"
question ranged from reactive to proactive. This last question was a hard one
which defied simple answers, and which was further complicated because of its
link to the challenge of sustaining the ecosystems and communities in this region,
and elsewhere. All the discussions centered on five themes:
1.5 The Report and its ContributorsThe report contains a summary of the proceedings of the MBIS Final Workshop, held May 5-8, 1996, in Yellowknife. More than 100 people attended, including researchers and stakeholders from the study area and other parts of Canada as well as scientists from the United States, Europe and Australia. The full reportThe full proceedings are published separately as the MBIS Final Report. This
is a large technical document containing:
The appendices include reprints of summaries from the first and second MBIS
Interim Reports, (which were published in 1993 and 1994 respectively) prepared
statements by some of the round table panelists, a list of contract reports
and acknowledgments. Table 1 lists the lead investigators who participated in and contributed to
the study. Most projects involved two or more researchers. Some of these scientists
as well as a number of stakeholders also participated in other studies taking
place at the same time in the region, including the Northern River Basins Study,
Peace Athabasca Delta Technical Studies, and Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
. The discussions in the study benefited greatly from the experience the scientists
had on other research programs. If the region's climate continues to warm up, water and land resources would
be affected. Some scenario results are a continuation of the changes which are
taking place during the current warming trend. The rate of change in the scenarios
may be quite different from current trends, but it is difficult to work out
how quickly these changes would occur.
2. Research results2.1 Natural resources2.1.1 WaterResults of a study of the whole basin by Soulis et al. (University of Waterloo,
from MBIS Interim Report #2) show that if the climate changes, the runoff
of water from rain or melted snow which flows into streams, rivers and lakes
would drop by seven per cent, though some areas within the basin could be wetter.
For example, Chin and Assaf (BC Hydro, from MBIS Interim Report #2) projected
a six per cent increase in runoff for the Williston Lake region of northeast
British Columbia. Using information from Soulis et al., other studies from the Global
Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, and a model of the rivers and lakes of the
lower Mackenzie River, Kerr (Environment Canada) developed a scenario
of changes in levels and flows for the river and Great Slave and Great Bear
lakes. His results show that levels and flows would be lower during the fall
and winter months, and that the annual minimum levels would be lower than the
extremely low levels observed in 1995. The reason for this is that the increase
in the rate of evaporation would offset any increase in precipitation. One other point, according to a study by Andres (Trillium Engineering, from
MBIS Interim Report #2), the ice season on the Peace River would be about
a month shorter.
2.1.2 Land
2.1.3 WildlifeChanges in climate, vegetation and water would affect the region's wildlife
at various stages of their life cycles, including migration and reproduction.
Relationships between animals and the landscape are complex, and for many species,
the effect of climate change was difficult to project.
These studies provide a western, science-based picture of the reaction of the
area's wildlife to a change in the environment. Traditional knowledge could
fill in some of the missing details. MBIS attempted to do a case study of Lutsel
k'e, a community on the east side of Great Slave Lake. Bielawski (Arctic
Institute of North America, from MBIS Interim Report #2) provided some information.
Unfortunately, full financial support for this study was not available and the
opportunity for important collaborative research was lost. Western science and traditional knowledge could become partners in exploring
the potential effects of climate warming on wildlife. The potential of such
a partnership was discussed at length during the Round Tables (See Section 3).
2.2 Industry and Community2.2.1 IndustryIn general, a change in climate would be a mixed blessing for industry. Such
a change could reduce forest yields, thereby increasing the risks for commercial
forestry in northern Alberta and British Columbia (Rothman and Herbert, Environment
Canada and University of British Columbia). Agriculture, on the other hand,
could benefit from the longer growing season, but farmers would have to expand
their irrigation systems to keep their farms afloat (Brklacich, Carleton
University).
There were two case studies on the effects which climate change might have
on tourism. Only minor changes are projected for canoeing, boating, camping,
etc. in Nahanni National Park in southwestern NWT, but sport hunting could be
hurt because of the losses in the Bathurst caribou herd (Brotton et al.,
University of Waterloo). Offshore energy development in the Beaufort Sea could benefit from the longer
summer, but increased coastal erosion and storm surges would lead to higher
costs and environmental risks (Anderson et al., McMaster University).
2.2.2 CommunitiesNorthern residents who live in small communities see more of the changes in
the environment than government officials tucked away in office towers. Moreover,
community residents use information differently. For example, reports from northerners
and southerners about changes in the environment reflect different visions of
the effect which climate change may have for traditional and wage-based lifestyles.
To integrate western science and traditional knowledge is possible (and greatly
to be desired), but only if researchers make a real attempt to understand and
connect with the lives of the people in this area (Bielawski, Arctic Institute
of North America, from Interim Report #2).
Some possible effectsClimate change scenarios suggest that although there might be fewer floods
in the spring, a warmer climate could create other problems. For instance:
How well a community responds to a change in climate will depend on the area's
social, economic and geographic situation, as well as on the residents' previous
experience with severe weather and long-term variations in climate. For example,
Newton (Newton Assoc.) studied how people in two communities coped with
recent flooding. One community, Fort Liard, had easy access to higher ground,
while the other, Aklavik, was situated in the middle of the Mackenzie Delta.
When Fort Liard was flooded, residents moved to community buildings or friends'
houses on higher ground. When Aklavik was flooded, residents could not get away
as easily because there was no high ground. Instead they helped each other --
evacuating elderly and disabled residents by aircraft. Results of the study
also showed that how individuals responded was different in each case. Interestingly, Fort Liard had a more difficult time and suffered greater damage
from the flood than Aklavik. That was because Fort Liard had not been flooded
as many times as Aklavik and so had fewer and less well-defined support services
in place. Not surprisingly, Fort Liard required a broad range of support from
different levels of government. As Northern communities grow and change, response to flooding and other hazards
will also change. The story of the two communities may be instructive when thinking
about how Northerners might cope with a change in climate. Similarly, a change in climate would affect a community which depended on the
traditional lifestyle of hunting, trapping and fishing differently than a community
which depended on a nearby mine or oil or gas operation. For example, the second
community would have much more infrastructure at stake if the permafrost on
which all that rested started to thaw. But climate change is more than a problem of engineering. Climate change may
also pose social questions because it may affect the balance of the wage economy
and non-wage traditional economy. For example, with a change in climate, a gradual
warming might lead to new wage paying jobs in farming and offshore energy projects
(Lonergan et al., University of Victoria). But the same scenario might
also pose new risks for transportation, forestry and mining, as well as alter
the conditions for hunting, trapping and fishing significantly. These activities
would also be influenced by land claims and external economic pressures, such
as national and international demand for the region's natural resources. (Land
claims are claims by aboriginal people for ownership of the land.) MBIS has
just scratched the surface of how all these pressures would affect the wage
and non-wage economies of northwest Canada.
2.2.3 Integrated assessment or getting it togetherOne of the more interesting features of the MBIS was that it was an integrated
assessment of climate change scenarios. This meant that scientists shared information,
experiences, results and models at workshops and in conversation with each other
and with stakeholders. All participants used climate warming scenarios developed for the study. Successful
examples of cross-disciplinary collaboration include:
There were also three modelling exercises that looked at the indirect implications
of these many changes on the region. These studies used information from other
studies and data for their computer-based mathematical models. In one study, Yin (Environment Canada and University of British Columbia)
focused on agriculture and forestry. The model, called a land assessment model,
used information about the effect a change of climate would have on those two
industries and the goals their representatives had for them. The point was to
answer the question: Will there be new conflicts over land use? Results showed
that as the climate warmed up and more land was turned over to agriculture,
the loss of top soil from erosion would exceed the target set for soil erosion.
Also, not enough spruce would grow to fill the needs of the forestry industry.
The model has limitations, however, since fisheries, wildlife and some other
activities were not addressed. The model can be run using other scenarios if
additional data can be obtained. Huang (University of Regina) took a slightly different approach to the
same question. This study developed a multi-objective programming model to discover
whether or not the ambitions of various stakeholders could be met if there was
a change in climate. Four scenarios were considered. The first two scenarios
looked at what would happen if the agriculture and commercial forestry industries
grew slowly or grew quickly. The third and fourth scenarios looked at what would
happen if the agriculture industry took over some forest land or large tracts
of forest land. The last two scenarios were included as a response to the decline
in forest yield projected by Hartley and Marshall. In all four scenarios, the agricultural industry could expand and stay within
constraints imposed by other users of the region's resources. In the last two
scenarios, however, the forestry industry would decline. This model could be
tested with other scenarios. Lonergan et al. (University of Victoria) developed an economic
model and applied it to a scenario of expansion in oil production in the Beaufort
Sea, based on Anderson et al. The point was to discover if the job picture
would change. These results were then combined with a survey of the Pedzeh Ki
First Nation in Wrigley, NWT. The results of Lonergan's study suggested that
short-term wage employment would increase in the community business and personal
services sector. The question was would these jobs be in town or out of town?
Would residents be able to live and work in their community or would they have
to commute to distant jobs often leaving for days or weeks on end? The authors
were concerned that the community could be disrupted if the job opportunities
went outside. The implication for lifestyles of aboriginal people could not be determined,
in part, because of the many unsettled land claims. Also other changes such
as the thawing of the permafrost and changes to forestry were not addressed.
This issue requires considerably more research. All of these studies, including the modelling exercises, were able to use the
results of other MBIS studies and contributed activities. This suggests that
integration was at least partially achieved. The final workshop provided a forum
for stakeholders and scientists to exchange information across disciplines and
cultures. In short the workshop was a shared learning experience of the region's
sensitivity to climate change. That said, however, there were a number of opportunities which were missed.
They included:
Most of these problems reflect the difficulty in co-ordinating timing of the
results of research, and in transferring data between scientists. The decision to proceed with this large set of scenarios, studies and modelling
exercises was taken because there was no consensus within the community about
the best way to do an integrated assessment. MBIS became an experiment in which
different methods were used, with the hope that each would produce information
that would be valuable to stakeholders, and ultimately to the debate about responses
to climate change.
2.3 Review of MBIS by University of TexasDyer and Stewart (University of Texas, Austin) examined the research
and consultation process within MBIS, as part of their review of sustainable
development case studies from several countries. Although MBIS did not directly
concern planned economic developments, the authors included it because they
said its processes, such as stakeholder involvement and asking "what if"
questions were consistent with successful sustainable development. The authors said that while most stakeholders supported the study's process
-- which has received international interest -- some aboriginal participants
had raised important concerns such as whether or not aboriginal or traditional
knowledge had been given the same weight as outside or scientific knowledge.
These participants also felt that there was not enough direct contact with local
stakeholders and that the study's research agenda was too rigid. Overall, however, the study's process was seen as open-ended and participatory,
and that it got people accustomed to the idea that "global warming"
was their problem. Their suggestions for improving the process were consistent
with those expressed during the MBIS Final Workshop round tables (see Section
3).
2.4 Other Canadian and International ContributionsFassnacht (University of Waterloo) described a new method for estimating
the amount of time suspended sediments took to travel through stream channels
in the Mackenzie Delta. Gan (University of Alberta) compared different
approaches for estimating snow cover for the entire basin. He said that although
estimates can be provided from satellite imagery, there were still difficulties
in obtaining data on cloudy days. At the final workshop, an impact study of the warm summer of 1992 in northern
Germany was presented by Toth (Potsdam Institute of Climate Impacts, Germany).
New multinational initiatives from the International Arctic Science Committee
(IASC) were described for two regions: the Barents Sea (Lange and Kuhry,
University of Muenster, Germany, and IASC Global Change Programme Office, Finland),
and the Bering Sea (Weller, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, United States).
The full report includes descriptions of the new IASC projects.
2.5 Expectations and ResultsAfter six years of work, it is useful to reflect on the study's expectations
and how well they were met. Table 2 compares some expectations and results.
It is also useful to compare MBIS research results with hypotheses set out
by the scientists at the outset of the study. This comparison is provided in
Table 3. This comparison shows that while some of the expectations and hypotheses
were confirmed, the research provided some surprises.
3. Round Table Discussions: Stakeholders' ResponsesThere were six round table discussions at the MBIS Final Workshop. Stakeholders
were asked whether or not the scenario of changes and effects which might occur
if the climate changed would make a difference to their visions of the future,
and if so, how should the region respond? The discussions were anchored by the
five themes:
There was a sixth round table at which participants discussed recommendations.
All round table sessions included presentations and discussions by stakeholders
who sat at the table as well as questions and discussions from scientists who
sat in the audience.
3.1 Interjurisdictional Water ManagementIn the research section a number of changes in rivers, lakes, deltas and wetlands
were described for climate change scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin. These changes
included:
Most of the round table panelists cited recent examples of significant changes
in regional water resources which confirmed part of the science. The examples
included:
People in the Northwest Territories have always been concerned about signs
of change in the rivers. At first, officials thought the Bennett Dam on the
Peace River in British Columbia, and the pulp mills and oil sands project in
Alberta were the cause of lower water levels in the Mackenzie River. But Robert
McLeod of NWT Renewable Resources reported that according to the Northern
River Basins Study, climate change has also played a role, exacerbating the
considerable effect which the Bennett Dam has had on the river system. Dean Arey of the Inuvialuit Game Council told the meeting that the rate
of climate change would play a major role in determining how his people adapted.
About 70 to 80 per cent of the Inuvialuit people lived off the land and relied
on fish, whale, and caribou for food and trade. If the changes occurred over
centuries then his people would be able to adapt. Changes of nature have always
been slow and the Inuvialuit have been able to alter their lifestyles, he said.
But, if the changes occurred within a few decades, the Inuvialuit would be hard
hit. Karen LeGresley Hamre of the Gwich'in Interim Land Use Planning Board said
that a stable climate was no longer a given for the people of the north. Plants,
animals and fish would not stay the same. This was another "big, variable
element" which would be introduced into planning aboriginal settlement
areas. It would make planning difficult for the permanent blocks of land that
were set aside within the land claim area for traditional use. A change in climate
might make this land unsuitable for those activities. Brian O'Donnell of Environment Canada asked what plans the participants
could make in the event that the low water levels continued. Would the scenarios
of climate change make a difference in how water was managed across the jurisdictions?
He answered his own questions by suggesting that the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary
Waters Master Agreement might provide a model for interjurisdictional water
management. The agreement defines general water management principles for six jurisdictions
including Canada, the NWT, Yukon, B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan. Under the
agreement water is shared in an equitable manner and the aquatic ecosystem is
protected. Terry Zdan of Alberta Environmental Protection agreed, adding
that this is similar to arrangements south of the basin.
3.2 Sustainability of EcosystemsSection two describes a number of projected changes to vegetation and wildlife
in the Mackenzie Basin including:
Round table panelists added their own observations about the effects of the
recent warming trend. George Low of the Department of Fisheries & Oceans
reported that high water temperatures in Beaver Lake and areas downstream from
Great Slave Lake had killed a large number of fish in 1989. As a result, the
government had limited the number of fish which could be caught and possessed.
George Kurszewski of the Metis Nation described a decline in the rabbit
population in the South Slave region, south of Great Slave Lake. And Charlie
Snowshoe of Fort McPherson said that after forest fires, trees did not grow
as they once had. Ron Graf of NWT Renewable Resources and Kevin McCormick of Environment
Canada suggested some scenarios of changes to wildlife. For example, changes
in vegetation could force caribou about to give birth to move to areas where
vegetation was more plentiful but so were their natural predators. Panelists agreed that it was sometimes difficult to separate the effects of
a change in climate from changes caused by other factors or from natural variations
within ecosystems. This difficulty could be further complicated by conditions
which produced a response that was not projected or anticipated. For example,
contaminants found in water and fish could affect their response to climate
change. The sustainability of the ecosystem also emerged as an important theme during
discussions about economic development and native lifestyles. Maurice Boucher
of Fort Resolution's environmental working committee stressed the need to
recognize the role that values and value judgments played in decision making,
while Cam McGregor of Alberta Environmental Protection and Mr. McCormick
suggested that the public's awareness of what the problems and choices were
would affect communication between science and policy departments. The discussion about what steps participants could take to adapt to climate
change and to protect the ecosystem included the need to improve communications
between scientists and stakeholders, a better understanding of the information
requirements of the people who made decisions and a greater appreciation of
traditional knowledge. Other proposals were:
Climate change is a complex issue that requires a local as well as national
and international responses. Although land claim agreements had given aboriginal
people more local control than they have had for decades, Mr. Snowshoe
said even those agreements might not be enough for Northerners to respond effectively
to global issues such as climate change, ozone depletion and nuclear accidents
like Chernobyl. He said this situation was similar to many of the other issues
Northerners faced in that it too involved a learning process for everyone.
3.3 Economic DevelopmentRound table panelists stressed two points. The first was that even if the ball
game changed in the future, the old rules of supply and demand would still apply.
The second point was that aboriginal land claims had changed the political landscape.
Now regional stakeholders had an equal voice with business leaders and scientists
in decisions about research and development. Although panelists had trouble putting a price tag on the possible effects
of a change in climate, information gleaned from research gave a clue to what
the cost might be.
The round-table discussions ranged over a wide number of subjects including:
3.4 Maintenance of InfrastructureThe panellists at this round table collectively had several decades of experience
planning, designing, building and maintaining transportation routes and building
structures in permafrost areas within the Mackenzie River Basin. These professionals
had witnessed the effects of recent climate trends. Environmental, economic
and social considerations were addressed during the discussions about managing
infrastructure in the north. Research suggested the following changes could occur:
Rod Dobell of the University of Victoria suggested the group expand
the notion of infrastructure to include education and insurance mechanisms as
well as emergency response, monitoring, regulatory, health and social support
systems. Infrastructure could be the social and cultural institutions which
pool risks and support people in times of stress and change. Infrastructure
could also be the institutions which govern harvesting and land use activities
in a sustainable manner. Some responses to climate change might include changing
design and construction standards, changing the type of animals, fishes and
trees which are hunted, trapped, fished and cut by the forestry, fisheries or
wildlife industries and regulatory reforms governing land use. Pietro de Bastiani of the NWT Ministry of Transportation described potential
effects which climate change could have on marine, rail and road transportation.
For example, mobile sea ice is a barrier to shipping and warming may result
in increasing the number of ice breakers needed during the winter. This has
obvious implications for shipping in the Arctic. Farther south, the Mackenzie
River is one of the main routes used to supply northern communities and industries
with fuel and other basic goods. Barges and tugs depend on high water conditions.
Lower stream flows could result in higher transportation costs. Permafrost and ice conditions are important for all land-based transportation.
Ice strips for air transport are eroding in areas affected by fires. Permanent
roads and ferry harbours are being damaged by erosion caused by melting permafrost.
Any changes in the rates of run-off, melting, and water flows would result in
revising dates for cut-offs and closures of winter roads. The development of
new roads to new mines would need to be carefully assessed. Randy Cleveland of NWT Ministry of Public Works & Services, said
that construction techniques had been developed to deal with the cold of the
north, and to a large degree, required the cold to work properly. The techniques
were sensitive to changes in ground temperature and would have to be adapted
to fit warmer surface temperatures. Alan Hanna of AGRA Earth & Environmental Limited participated on
the panel as an engineer who had worked on pipelines in the north and in Russia.
He felt that in the short term the effect of climate change would not be significant
but that it could be in the long term. In general, he said bed rock would not
be affected by climate change but areas with a great deal of ice would be. Discontinuous
permafrost zones would be altered, and in some places greatly, while the continuous
permafrost zones would get off lightly. More fires would probably increase mud
flows. Dams and dikes might have to be monitored and retrofitted with insulation
or artificial means of cooling the ground, and large pipelines might have to
be chilled to reduce their effect on right of ways. He was confident that the
engineering industry could deal with warm and cold permafrost. He told study participants not to get alarmed about ruptures in pipelines and
potential extreme events. Temperature swings were variable, and people in the
north should adapt, not over-react. He also said that it would be less expensive
to remedy the situation when it happened rather than to invest in large capital
expenditures now. Mr. Cleveland said developers considered changes in water level, stability
of slopes and the speed of erosion along the coast when looking for places to
build. As long as the warming occurred slowly, the construction industry could
adapt. But adaptation was not just a question of engineering. New technologies
and construction techniques probably would mean higher costs and more imported
materials and labour. The "ecological footprint" from construction
in the north is already large. What is needed is "sustainable construction"
or construction which uses local instead of imported materials and is compatible
with the ecosystem and aboriginal lifestyles in the north. Technology would change, panellists were told, but it would not mitigate the
problem of global warming. Appropriate building technology would develop, and
demonstration projects should be advocated. The government of the NWT is now
looking at sustainable construction. Several questions related to sustainability were raised by the audience including
the use of alternative energy in energy systems, consideration of climate change
in long-term design standards, and the possibility of the north's ecological
footprint getting larger. Panellists said that alternative sources of energy from wind and passive solar
technology were being considered as was the use of waste heat from industry.
Energy conservation programs were being implemented. Further, governments were
reconsidering design standards, even though current standards were based on
past experience and climate change introduced a new complexity. However, new
information on sea ice was not used because of downsizing and closing of various
services, and rising demand for all-weather roads and other infrastructure was
increasing the cost of construction and the size of the north's ecological footprint.
3.5 Sustainability of Native LifestylesClimate change joins a long list of factors which affect the lifestyle and
livelihoods of the people who live in the north, said Joanne Barnaby of the
Dene Cultural Institute. The traditional way of life largely depends on
fishing, hunting, and trapping, and any change, including climate change, which
affects these natural resources will also affect people's livelihood. Another
factor, she said, is the growing number of native people who are joining the
wage-based economy. This trend coupled with an increasing reliance on imported
goods may decrease the reliance of native people on the local resources. With
or without climate change, she said, native lifestyles are in flux and the effect
which a changing climate might have should be considered in this context.
3.5.1 Changes seenLocal residents said that there had been a slight, but noticeable shift in
the length and transition between seasons. Don Antoine of the Dene Environmental
Committee, Fort Simpson, NWT, said that freeze-up starts later and ice breakup
starts earlier and is less violent than in the past. He suggested that perhaps
this is a consequence of thinner ice and a more gradual transition between seasons.
Water levels across the Mackenzie Basin are also at an all time low, possibly
because there is less precipitation and more water lost through evaporation.
Recent climate warming is believed to be the cause of the low water levels.
Whit Fraser of the Canadian Polar Commission suggested that lower water
levels may be the reason there are no muskrat today in the Peace-Athabasca delta
and that trapping is not the major industry there that it was a few decades
ago.
3.5.2 Expected changes and their effect on local communitiesThe coastal communities of Tuktoyaktuk and Inuvik are expected to be at risk
of flooding if a projected sea level rise occurs. Given sufficient warning and
time to change, communities will be able to move. The cost of doing so, however,
will be more than the community can afford. An increase in the frequency and intensity of forest fires can significantly
reduce the variety and number of wildlife living in traditional hunting and
trapping grounds. Lou Comin of Wood Buffalo National Park said that some
animals such as martin, fisher or squirrel thrive in mature forests, so they
may not return to burned areas. Caribou may react the same way. There is great
uncertainty about the ability of particular species to adapt to changes in fire
and the effect is expected to vary from species to species.
3.5.3 Effect on the two economies - traditional and wage-basedThe availability of wildlife is important to many native communities. It is
a source of food, income and traditional clothing. Equally important, wildlife
is critical for maintaining traditional systems of knowledge and identity. If
there are significant changes in wildlife numbers or habitats, then members
of native communities will have to modify traditional patterns of trapping,
fishing, and hunting. Native people have adapted to change many times in the past, but it was the
predictability of the extent, duration and speed of changes which made that
possible. Participants at the round table said that native communities will
be at risk if changes affecting wildlife are fast, dramatic and unpredictable.
The effect of climate change on jobs in the area is expected to be mixed. The
employment picture has changed greatly in recent decades and continues to change
-- for three reasons. First, according to Herbert Felix of the Inuvialuit
Game Council, children are better educated today than their parents and
grandparents. Second, access to local communities has improved, and in some
cases, there is regular air service which some people use to commute to their
jobs. Third, in areas where wildlife has disappeared, some native people have
opted for jobs which pay wages. If climate change reduces the chances of native
people living by traditional means, then that lifestyle which has endured for
centuries will eventually disappear.
3.5.4 Response to climate changeOn partnerships
3.5.5 Strategies for adaptingLocal communities must help to develop and put into place any strategies to
adapt to climate change. Mr. Antoine cited the Community Resource Management
Projects as an example of a workable strategy which involves all the players.
In this case, hunters and trappers work together on an integrated management
framework. This co-operation is important. Some strategies may involve cutting
back on hunting and trapping or cancelling plans for commercial expansion in
order to save a species endangered by climate change. Adapting to climate change will also require training programs so that there
will be people with leadership and management skills. For example, Mr. Antoine
said, when Nunavut, comes into existence in 1999, it will require well-trained
people. (In 1999, the NWT will be divided into two territories, Nunavut in the
east and an as yet unnamed territory in the west.) More training programs, such
as the one on renewable resource management for aboriginal youth offered by
the Aurora Research Institute in Inuvik, will be necessary to prepare for the
tasks ahead.
3.6 RecommendationsThe need for collaboration as well as for better communication, continued monitoring
and increased use of traditional knowledge dominated the discussion.
4. ConclusionThe discussions about climate change are approaching an interesting phase.
In October 1997, Canada and about 160 countries will try to agree on the next
steps to take to deal with climate change. Results of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study suggest that the effects of recent
climate warming are evident in the region. Even though the basin's residents
contribute only a small portion of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions they will
probably live through some quite dramatic changes because of future warming.
Nevertheless, residents believe they will be able to adapt to these changes
-- if they do not happen quickly. Slowing the pace of climate change should
be a goal of Canada's policies.
AcknowledgmentsMBIS provided full or partial funding for 19 projects during 1991-1996. Another
11 research activities were contributed in-kind to MBIS through Environment
Canada, BC Hydro and the University of Victoria. Various data sets were provided
by federal, provincial and territorial government agencies. Total research expenditures
were $770,000 (see Table 1), with an additional $180,000 provided for publications,
travel support and other administrative work. The Canadian government was the principal sponsor of the study. Esso Resources
Ltd. also provided direct funding to MBIS for research and other activities.
Many investigators obtained additional financial and in-kind support from other
sources, which are not included in the above totals. In-kind contributions of
data and research were probably of equal value to directly sponsored activities.
MBIS was directed by a Working Committee consisting of representatives from
federal, provincial and territorial government agencies, aboriginal organizations
and the private sector (see Table 4). The Working Committee reviewed and ranked
research proposals for funding support, and provided advice on matters related
to research and consultation. Most of the committee's work took place during
1990-1994.
The MBIS Final Workshop was co-sponsored by Environment Canada, the Canadian
Global Change Program of the Royal Society of Canada, Indian and Northern Affairs
Canada, Alberta Environmental Protection, Northwest Territories Renewable Resources,
Canadian Polar Commission, Aurora College (formerly Arctic College) and Aurora
Research Institute (formerly the Science Institute of the Northwest Territories).
This report benefited from the comments provided by David Grimes, Roger Street,
Barrie Maxwell and John Newton. The opinions and statements expressed here are those of the authors and not
necessarily those of Environment Canada.
Issued under the Authority of the Minister of the Environment. Également disponible en français sous le titre : The End
Created :
2002-12-18
Modified :
2002-12-18
Reviewed :
2002-12-18
Url of this page : http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca
/airg/research_projects/mack_basinstudy/sum_results_e.cfm
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