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The Environment Canada Policy Research Seminar SeriesKyoto Roadmap: Indicators of Carbon Emissions in Industrialized Countries
The International Energy Agency's (EIA) objective is to assist member and non-member countries CO2 emissions in regards to energy use and relevant economic, technological and human components. Comparisons of energy use across countries have been made amoung 14 member countries, including Canada, linking activities such as technology, behaviour, economic structure and development. The Agency uses indicators built on basic data relating to energy consumption, economic and physical output, activities and system characteristics. International comparisons based on these indicators can then be used to find outliers, and to search for best practices. Data errors are often identified from this approach as are likely misinterpretations of factors such as the impacts of a cold climate. Carbon Emissions from energy usage have also been decomposed to a key formula by the IEA: emissions (G) being equal to Sectoral Activity (A, a vector over as many as six sectors) multiplied by Sectoral Structure (S, really a vector over each of the activities within each sector), multiplied by the energy Intensities of each subsectoral activity (I), multiplied in term by Carbon per unit of Energy (F) for each energy intensity. This gives the "ASIF" identity G = A * S * I * F. A primary purpose of measuring energy use is to gauge carbon emissions. Canada has relatively high energy use level by unit of GDP, compared to other countries in the same economic bracket. But this must be interpreted properly. When energy efficiencies, climate, distances, the mix of production, fuel mix etc are properly counted it is found that the structure of Canada's energy use (including hits cold climate) boost energy use and emissions slightly relative to other countries. Canada's high energy intensities, on the other hand, raise energy use by about 20% relat ive to the rest. But Canada's fuel mix is not carbon intensive, and its utility carbon intensity, or carbon emitted per kWh made available to the economy, is very low. Consequently Canada's carbon to GDP ratio is only slightly higher than the average of the sample of 14 IEA Countries that were studied. Fuel use amoung the countries analyzed varies considerably, for different reasons. With larger distances, transportation in Canada, Australia, and the US contributes more to carbon emissions than in Western European Nations and Japan. Carbon intensities have decreased considerably since 1970, however, this decrease has slowed since the late 80's or early 90's. This loss of momentum increases the difficulty of achieving the goals set out by the Kyoto Protocol, which implies reductions at much faster rates than have been occurring since 1990 in all but a few countries. Factors which were identified as contributing to the greater energy intensity in the countries examined include manufacturing economies, the size of the country for transportation distances, and the climate. These factors are to a large degree independent of fuel efficiency, and other emissions saving measures, but they must be considered when rating the performance of a country in regards to carbon emissions. Clearly only with a disaggregated approach, can the factors that raise or lower Canada's emissions relative to other countries be identified and quantified. In forming carbon indicators a number of outstanding issues remain for Canada. There needs to be an improved system of observation for energy use in residential and service sector end uses, which is being pursued vigourously by NRCAN at this time. Fuel use monitoring for the freight sector also needs to be improved as does information for specific industries such as smelting and mining. BiographyLee Schipper is Senior Scientist at the International Energy Agency, Paris. He is on leave from his post as a Staff Senior Scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL), University of California, Berkeley. He is also a member of Global Business Network and a Senior Associate of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. He has been a Fellow at the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank and a visiting researcher with Group Planning, Shell Inter- national Petroleum Company, London. Dr. Scipper spent six months at the Swedish Heating Society in Stockholm (1982/3) and one year (1977/8) in Sweden as a Fulbright Scholar at the Beijer Institute in Stockholm and was associated with the Stockholm Environment Institute in the Early 1990s. He was Information Specialist at the Energy and Resources Group, Univ. of California, Berkeley, from 1974 to 1977. He obtained his B. A. in Music from Berkeley in 1968 and his Ph. D. in Astrophysics in 1985. Dr. Schipper has authored over 100 technical papers and a number of books on energy economics, energy use and energy conservation around the world, both in IEA-member economies and in E. Europe and the Developing World. These analyze the structure of energy use in each main sector of major economies. He is developing indicators of economy-wide energy utilization and subsequent carbon emissions. He has a strong focus on transportation, with close links to the fuels and transportation industries and NGOs as well. He was a member of the Swedish Board for Transportation and Communications Research for four years. List of articles and reports by Dr. Lee SchipperCompiled in support of the Environment Canada Policy Research Seminar.
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