The Environment Canada Policy Research Seminar Series

Dr. Dennis Meadows May 3, 2002

On Friday, May 3, 2002, the Environment Canada Policy Research Seminar Series hosted Dr. Dennis Meadows. Dr. Meadows delivered a thought-provoking, interactive and highly entertaining presentation entitled "The Limits to Growth Debate : 1972 to 2002 ". The following is a precis of the seminar delivered by Dr. Meadows.

The 20th century was the first in human history to be characterized by exponential growth in aggregate global production. Since exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely, what will be the series of events in which the world encounters the limits to growth? What are the implications in terms of the magnitude of future global production levels and associated environmental consequences over the next century?

Scenario 1 is characterized by growth in global production that asymptotically approaches some maximum limit, at first quickly, but eventually slowing down as production gradually approaches this maximum level. Implicit in this scenario is that barriers to sustainable development can be resolved through a combination of political institutions, free markets and technological change.

Under Scenario 2, production would rise and eventually exceed the maximum sustainable level defined by Scenario 1. But eventually, production would stabilize at a level below the maximum limit of the first path. In other words, global production would temporarily overshoot the maximum carrying capacity sustainable over the long term, and as a result, global production would fall to a lower steady state level of production. This decline in production would come with considerable human and environmental stresses associated with the overuse of resources.

Which of the two growth paths will more closely represent the future path of global production that will be realized over the 21st century and beyond? Based on his informal survey of audiences around the world, Dr. Meadows contends that the vast majority of his audiences believe Scenario 2 to be more likely.

Why are so many cynical about our collective ability to remain within the bounds of the maximum sustainable carrying capacity of the world? Is it true that we are destined to endure painful lessons in encountering the limits to economic growth that will ultimately lead to a lower long-term level of aggregate global production?

Dr. Meadows contends that forces that foster exponential growth have come to dominate our attitudes and behaviour, ranging from short-term perspectives to consumer culture. Though many envision a new "sustainability revolution" that would guide global production along a path closer to Scenario 1, this shift in behaviour has yet to take root to the extent necessary to avoid Scenario 2

Furthermore, we might be skeptical that the free play of market forces shall lead us to a Scenario 1 future.

In addition to social and economic factors, there are a number of natural and ecological mechanisms which may make the overshoot and collapse scenario likely. Climate change may lead to severe instability of the hydrological cycle. Some ecological time bombs could accelerate the process, such as the slow accumulation of toxic materials in soils, especially heavy metals.

The salient question is how do we realize a Scenario 1 type growth path given that our present behaviour is widely believed to be more consistent with a Scenario 2 path?

Challenging the existing exponential growth paradigm requires thinking outside conventional norms. Fundamental solutions and successful adaptation will require a change in our ethics, culture and values. It will require more effective networks to distribute resources and technology. Such fundamental changes will take decades, if they are to take place at all in time to prevent the overshoot and collapse scenario.

The next 20 years will be a critical juncture in human history. Dr. Meadows suspects we can maintain the current world population at current standards of living, but over the long term, we will need dramatic shifts in our behaviour. Desired family size will have to remain at 2 or less and fertility control effectiveness will have to fall to 1.0. Industrial output per person will need to be limited to around 110% of 2000 levels. This production will need to use less energy and involve pollution level reductions of the order of magnitude of 80 to 90 percent. If we don't start to limit our production, we could start to experience serious resource exhaustion effects in the 2030 to 2040 timeframe. The many examples around the world in which fish stocks collapsed due to overharvesting may provide an important lesson as to what may be in store for the larger global ecosystem if we are not more forward looking in our approach to resource use.

In conclusion, Dr. Meadows echoed the sentiments of a Canadian Proverb which he believed may provide telltale insights of the world's future growth path: "Once the last tree is cut and the last river is poisoned, you will find you cannot eat your money."

Biography

Dr. Meadows is perhaps best known for his work with the MIT team that produced the global computer simulation model "World3" in 1972. The model provided the basis for the Club of Rome's predictions and the book "The Limits to Growth", which Dr. Meadows co-authored. Three decades since the publication of "The Limits to Growth", Meadows still deals with long-term issues and matters of global modeling at the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research (IPSSR) at the University of New Hampshire.

Dr. Meadows holds a Ph.D. in management from M.I.T. in addition to honorary doctorates from three European universities acknowledging his contributions to international environmental policy analysis and computer-aided education.

List of articles and reports by Dr. Dennis Meadows

1. Meadows, Dennis L. & Meadows, Donella H. Toward global equilibrium : collected papers. -- Cambridge, Mass. : Wright -Allen Press, 1973. -- 358 p.
   
   
2. Meadows, Dennis L., Meadows, Donella H., Hutchinson, G.E. et al. Beyond growth : essays on alternative futures. -- New Haven : Yale University, 1975. -- 228 p.
   
   
3. Meadows, Dennis L. Alternatives to growth - I : a search for sustainable futures. -- Cambridge, Mass. : Ballinger Publishing Company, 1977. -- 401 p.Papers adapted from entries to the 1975 George and Cynthia Mitchell Prize and from presentations before the 1975 Alternatives to Growth Conference, held at the Woodlands, Texas.
   
   
4. Meadows, Dennis L. Tools for understanding the limits to growth : comparing a simulation and a game. Simulation & Gaming (2001) 32 (4) : 522-536.
   
   
5. Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L., Randers, J. & Behrens III, W.W. The limits to growth : a report for The Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind. -- New York : Universe Books, 1972. -- 205 p.
   
   
6. Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L., Randers, J. & Behrens III, W.W. Rapport sur les limites de la croissance. In Halte à la croissance ?. -- Paris : Fayard, 1974. -- p. 131-314.La seconde partie de ce volume est la traduction intégrale de l'ouvrage de langue anglaise The limits to growth.
   
   
7. Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L. & Randers, J. Beyond the limits : confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future. -- Toronto : McClelland & Stewart, 1992. -- 300 p.
   
   
8. Naill, Roger F., Meadows, Dennis L. & Stanley-Miller, J. The transition to coal. Technology Review (1975) Oct./Nov. : 19-29.