Environmental Scan — June 2002

Demographics

Summary

Shifts in demographic trends are gradual. While some trends such as urbanization and rural depopulation are global, others such as aging populations or youth bulges are particular to specific areas, with some of the major differences apparent between developed and less developed countries.

Results from Canada's 2001 Census provide an up-to-date view of trends and anomalies within the country and a basis for comparison to the rest of the world.

In this section

• population growth still an issue despite dropping fertility rates
• urbanization and rural depopulation - truly global trends
• aging developed world may be looking to young developing world for sustainability
• Census 2001 reveals global trends evident in Canada
• Canada slowest growing nation in NAFTA
• shifts in population have potential to deepen divide between urban/rural and Ontario/rest of Canada

Demographics — Global

• fertility rates dropping - but it's too soon to declare an end to the population explosion
  – drop in fertility rates prompting debates about whether globe will experience a trend reversal from population growth to decline
  – UN has revised projected global population for 2050 upwards by nearly .5 billion --middle of the road prediction is still 9.3 billion people
  – fertility rates are dropping more quickly than predicted in some regions (Asia & Latin America) and less quickly than predicted in others (West Asia & sub-Saharan Africa)
  – population declines are occurring or predicted in some developed countries
  • Russia - 3 million fewer since 1992 - projections for 2055 are additional losses of between 60 to 90 million people
  • Japan - negative growth rate is expected by 2007
  • Germany - predicts a shrinkage of over 20 million people by 2050

The most painful aspect of the world's future demographic behaviour is likely to be international migration. … until such time as the developing world is developed we face the distressing situation where the pressure from both legal and illegal migrants to enter the rich countries will be far greater than the numbers these countries are willing to admit.
~ John C. Caldwell

• immigration has/will become major source of population growth for developed countries willing to open their doors
• competition for well-educated, skilled immigrants is escalating
• anti-immigrant sentiments may emerge/intensify - particularly in countries without an immigration tradition
• urbanization - a dominant global demographic trend
  - 160,000 people move daily from rural to urban areas - close to 60 million annually
  • UN estimates current urban population at 2.9 billion - forecasts 5 billion by 2030
  • 83% of developed world will be urban by 2030
    — cities in less developed regions will grow fastest
• least equipped to deal with increased populations
• Asia and Africa likely to experience most rapid urbanization as they are currently the most rural
  — mega-cities (5 million +) will grow more slowly than smaller urban centres
• continue to be located primarily in less developed countries (48 out of 58 by 2015)

– 2000-2015 - cities of less than 500,000 will take in almost 45% of urban growth
– 2007 - 1st time in history urban and rural populations will be equal in number
· rural populations are declining worldwide
— negative rural growth rate expected in less developed regions by 2025

• urban growth rate will continue to outstrip absorption capacity in less developed countries
• increased pressure on infrastructure, employment, housing, environment
• potential tensions between urban and rural sectors - rural needs/concerns overshadowed
• world has over 1 billion youths between 15-24
  - less developed regions will experience a dramatic increase over next 20 years
  - UN predicts workforce will increase by 1 billion globally - from 3 to 4 billion by 2025
  - 60% of population is under 25 years of age in Gulf Co-operation Council countries (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait)
  · workforce will double by 2020
  · unemployment rate among youth is climbing steeply - estimated at over 20% in Bahrain and 15% among Saudi males
• will economies in these countries have capacity to absorb large number of new entrants to the labour force?
• authoritarian regimes - pressured to democratize as youth seek political outlet
• Middle East poses conflicting opportunity/challenge - potential population source for immigrant seeking developed nations and a source of security concerns
• UN predicts 2 billion persons over 60 years of age by 2050
  - 1/3 of developed world and 8% of less developed world will be over 60 years
  - world's median age will have increased by 10 years
  · Yemen has youngest population - average age of 15
  · Japan's is the oldest -average age of 41
  · 2050 - youngest population in Niger (20 year average) and oldest in Spain (55 year average)

Underemployed, urbanized young men are an especially volatile group that can be easily entrapped in organized crime or mobilized for violent political action - like terrorism.
~Thomas Homer-Dixon
The Globe and Mail
March 9, 2002

• potential support ratio (PSR = # of people between 15-64 for every person 65 and over) is dropping
• 1950-2000 - PSR fell from 12 to 9 and is expected to fall to 4 by 2050
  – working age population in developed world will drop 50 million (from 740 to 690 million) by 2025

Population aged 60 and over as % of total population, 2002
Economist April 13, 2002

Population aging is unprecedented, without parallel in the history of humanity. Increases in the proportions of older persons (60 years or older) are being accompanied by declines in the proportions of the young (under age 15). By 2050, the number of older persons in the world will exceed the number of young for the first time in history …by 1998, this historic reversal… had already taken place in the more developed regions.

World Population Aging Population Division, United Nations

• implications are far reaching and will touch all sectors of society, particularly service providers - everything from health care to urban planning to policing
• severe labour shortages are predicted in developed world in both public and private sectors

Demographics — Canada

• 2001 census puts population at 30,007,094
  - growth rate of 4%
  · one of the slowest ever recorded - higher than many developed countries
  · lower than US (over 5%) and Australia (almost 6%)
  · Alberta -only province to experience an increase in growth rate
  - Statistics Canada - 1/ 3 decline in natural increase (the difference between births and deaths)
  - immigration main source of growth for the first time since WW II
• global trends mirrored in Canada
  - urbanization continues
  · OECD describes Canada as one of the globe's most urbanized nations
  · 79.4% of Canadians live in cities - an increase of .9%
  · 51% of Canada's urban population is concentrated in four areas
  - southern Ontario
  - Montreal and surrounding area
  - Lower Mainland in BC and southern Vancouver Island
  - Calgary to Edmonton corridor
  - rural populations declining
  · 1.2% drop in population
  · northern, resource-based communities hit hardest
  · exceptions include areas circling large urban centres (commuters account for growth) and remotest reaches of the country (high fertility rate among Aboriginals accounts for 1% growth)

Canada, because of this (immigration), has a higher potential growth profile than most other countries. Amongst the developed world, we can expect to become relatively more powerful as far as economic growth is concerned.
~ David Foot
Quoted in The Toronto Star
March 12, 2002

• Canada in NAFTA
  - US population grows faster than Canada's for 1st time in 100 years
  · US maintaining a fertility rate of above 2 children per woman
  – Mexico experienced an 8.5% increase between 1995-2000 - more than double that of Canada
• Environics profile of trend-setting baby-boomer generation reveals:
  - Canada's baby boomer population among the largest (40% of population) - most ethnically diverse in developed world
  - boomers are big spenders and bad savers
  · Canadians owe + $34 billion on credit cards - only expected to start declining in 2010
  - late start on families - many are "sandwiched" between
• aging parents and young children
• aging population likely to give rise to more self-employment, to force an increase in retirement age and to compel employers to consider more flexible work arrangements
• baby-boomer generation continue to be major influencing force as it moves into autumn/winter years
• emergence of "gray" political parties across country may indicate things to come
• are private and public sectors prepared for the increase in senior population - how will the provision of services and design of programs have to change?
• one of the lowest population densities
  - OECD calculates a total of 3.1 residents per square kilometre
  · density most concentrated along Canada/US border
  - only Australia has lower population density at 2.7 residents per square km
  - compares to high of 387.5 per square km in The Netherlands
• shifts in population = shifts in political representation - eastern and western alienation may increase as Ontario's power base expands
• Canada's largest urban centres will ratchet up pressure for representation at fed/prov table
• depopulation of rural areas has implications for service delivery
  - police may increasingly called upon to perform non-law-enforcement duties
  - sectors may need to evaluate cost/ benefit of providing services in depopulating areas
• diversity of population will increase with growing reliance on immigration - attitudes toward newcomers important social barometer
• Canada will experience skills shortages
  - public sector shortages expected in executives, senior and middle managers, computer analysts, scientists, programmers, engineers and policy analysts
  - demand vs. supply will challenge employers, particularly in public sector, to find new ways to attract and retain personnel - compensation may increasingly become an issue
  (See Appendix A for more detailed across-Canada demographic information.)